Hero MAWG reg in this room. 2 hours into the session and have been playing very loose. Pretty passive because of table dynamics (1 player to our left is raising 100% of hands to $12 or more). $1k stack

Villain 1 MAWG. I haven't played with him in a lot of years but he was one of the best about 10 years ago. $1k stack and has been betting very small sizing overall or calling down with the goods.

Villain 2 MAWG. Loose passive with some spunk. Will 3b small pairs and suited disconnectors instead of calling or folding. Able to make hero folds in big spots so not sure if he scared money or a thinking player.

OTTH
1/3 NL $300 max buyin

UTG limps.
Hero raises to $15 with QQ.
MP, CO, Bu, BB call.
SB and UTG limper folds.

Flop ($79) AA9
Hero checks.
Button bets $15.
BB calls.
Hero calls. All others fold.

Turn ($124) Q
Hero?

I lead flop here small a lot as pfr. They can’t really raise you without an ace and if they do it’s an easy fold and they can call with worse which is good for you as they have low equity.

If they bet and you don’t spike a Q or A you are usually in trouble if they bet turn.

As played obvious check. He is repping strength. Let him bet again. Check raise is fine as He won’t fold an ace to this stack depth. If he jams you’re in trouble a lot vs A9 or the case AQ

Flop is fine. Pre might be a little small considering the number of calls, but they could all have decent hands?

Turn is tough. Leading looks way too strong, but it'd be gross if it checked through. I probably just check, though, because someone is bound to have an A. Check/call and hope someone hits their flush on the river. Check/raise is fine, too, but I doubt they'll stay around with worse -- it's tough for many to fold trip As, though.

Flop check is good. I would check turn looking to c/r. If it checks through probably psbish the river.

I normally hate limping ever, but like if the dude to our left is raising 100%, then it seems like the perfect time to go for a LRR.

If a player to our left is raising 100% of hands, doesn't this make preflop an even easier limp/reraise? Even without this dynamic I just limp/evaluate as I'm not a fan of the result (multiway, OOP to some good players, etc.). At least the SPR is a manageable ~13 thanks to being deep, but how face up is our range if we've been paying passive?

I guess I also sigh check/call the flop and just hope things shut down on later streets. But mostly we're going to be put in stupid spots on later streets OOP which is meh.

Think I would mostly check the turn. If no one has much (which may be suggested by the weak sizing on the flop) I'm not convinced we're squeezing much out of people (flush draw being the only exception). But if no one has much they may bluff against weakness / push their draws. And if they have something, they'll bet too. I'm probably in check/call mode and then evaluate on the river whether I want to get in more than what is bet (we can be behind so we'll have to carefully consider whether worse will call a check/raise on the river).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Am I the only one confused as to which V is which position?

I only ask because if button is V2, sounds like he has a few 9s in his range (J9, K9, T9hh, A9, maybe even 89hh given the price he got to call pre), which I think would be something to take into consideration.

I probably bet here. You can and probably will get called by Ax hands, which one of them probably has (almost every Ax is in the ranges of these 2 given the price they were getting to call preflop; dozens of combos), and the other probably has a club draw or was floating the turn (dozens of combos). It's unlikely either has the case AQ as they probably 3-bet pre (only 2 combos anyway), so you're really only worried about A9 (6 combos). I'm going for value. $60ish probably.

So with the caveat that I'm still relatively new to working with simulators, so maybe I made a mistake, here's what I got with ProPokerTools based on my estimated ranges for Vs (which I think are pretty similar as played, so I have them the same for simplicity):

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

224,196 trials (Exhaustive)

board: AA9Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QcQd	69.99%	156,906	0
Th9h, Jh9h, Kh9h, JcTc, KcJc, KcTc, A2-AK, 99	15.01%	27,999	11,292
Th9h, Jh9h, Kh9h, JcTc, KcJc, KcTc, A2-AK, 99	15.01%	27,999	11,292

So for me I think I'm definitely betting here looking at this, but happy to hear why I'm wrong.

Because check/calling the flop and then betting the turn looks incredibly strong and we don't want them to fold. They might bet if we check, though.

Whatever we do, we want money in the pot -- nobody is worried about losing the hand; we are worried about not making as much money as possible. Losing would suck, but it's not a concern.

Some people are stabby on the button, you can't count the button for more than what he started with, which probably adds 22-JJ, basically any one gapper clubs, all sorts of 98/97s/T9s/J9s/K9s, Kxcc etc. It's also such a small bet that I'm thinking it looks even stabbier than usual -- Ax would want to protect against clubs, so this just seems like button clicking to me.

I'd probably check turn, just feels too weird to lead here, I can't imagine what else I'd lead besides monsters worried about a check through. Check through isn't even that damaging for you, As and 9s are bad obviously but there's only five of them (and only four if they're actually damaging). If it checks through you're likelier to get value from a hand like TT/JJ/9x on the river than you would've been if it hadn't checked through.

Maybe I play too many loose games, and these are thinking players per OP's message, so I could clearly be wrong. I also think QQ is fairly well disguised in this spot given the check-call on the flop and H having a loose table image as he noted. I just think with appropriate sizing its possible to get 2 streets of value from an A or a flush draw.

The really small flop bet is fairly polarizing, but I think it's a weak hand more often than not. Bigger hands would want to get more money in on the flop.

I'm leading the turn for $75 or so but not expecting to win a big pot.

Flop is probably a fold, it’s definitely a fold to a normal sizing. 5 ways to the flop it is likely that someone flopped an A, plug it into poker cruncher and check for yourself.

I wouldn’t normally lead turn, but I’m not entirely sure turn lead is bad unless we play in a reggy game and we need to protect our turn checks. Does a turn lead really look stronger than a check raise? We could check call and lead some rivers. Anything is going to look strong though.

I would lead flush completing rivers if we check call turn.

Right. Like it really doesn't matter -- the point at which we disrupt the flow by leading or by check/raising is the point at which we are now saying "I have the best hand, call me at your peril." If it checks through on the turn, though, a river lead for $75 says, "Well, I may have the best hand, or you all may have nothing." Your $75 on the river is much likelier to be called light than on the turn.

If they've got 99/A9/AQ/Ax it's a cooler and they'll almost certainly oblige with a bet, and then it'll come down to how much hand they need to get broke with and whether you're on the good side of the cooler. But I think that's the other thing to keep in mind here -- if V is not getting broke with Ax, you're actually doing bad on combos -- there's two AQ, six A9, and only three 99 -- you're 8:3 behind if they have to have a boat to get all-in. So the other thing a lead does is polarize *them* and not just you -- and not in a way you want.

You want this guy to have JTcc and continue his semibluff because he's "improved" to 15 outs, when the fact is he's now stone dead. You can check/raise him small, small enough a raw flush draw has odds to call, and then hope he gets there, because if you shove after that turn action he's wide enough now and the pot's big enough that he'll have to call.

Regardless, turn lead just seems terrible to me -- even LLSNL donkeys can see when the flow of the hand gets ripped away from them. They have to be thinking something!

Five ways to the flop, I think this is a pretty standard fold on the flop as has been noted above. But we binked...........

BTN V could be stabbing flop or building a pot with the nuts. SB has more weak Aces than plausible FDs that could call this board with several players left to act behind his flop call of BTN flop bet. Oddly enough, I think SB call is likely to be stronger than BTN bet.

This is a problem for H because we might have to fade 9 outs on the river instead of 6 if both Vs have Ax.

Based on the positional description in HH, I assume BB V has checked to Hero. Therefore I would prefer to lead this turn. I feel BTN V could easily peel if he has FD and would slow down with his 9x after the Q turns. If BB has an Ace, he's calling us behind because he's chopping with all Ax where x is under 9. BTN calls with Ax and maybe his KcXc. BTN might even raise his Ax after we lead, which would be great.

The alternative is that it checks through and we very possibly have to lead into a 124 pot on the river where we are not invulnerable. I'd rather build a bigger pot now when we are almost certainly holding the nuts. We're only ever getting serious action from Ax and I don't see the point of letting them draw out on us when we're always leading the river anyway. We're always felted by A9 under almost any scenario.

How is a $15 bet into a pot of $79 a standard fold? It seems very MUBSY to me. For that price I'm peeling one more card off.