Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
It's close but I think I'd check here.
You have a pot sized bet left. So it's tempting to just ship the turn. But I think it's a pretty thin value shove. You don't get a call from TT. I don't know if villain would 3-bet AJ pre-flop. I think you value-town yourself to a calling range that looks more like KK+ than anything you beat if you shove turn.
So check turn and have a plan for the river. If the river is an A or K, you'll have to fold to a large bet or check behind if villain checks. If river isn't a scare card, and villain checks to you, you can make a maybe 60% pot sized value bet and see how light villain will call. Given our hand and the types of hands we 're hoping to get value from, I don't think we should be trying to stack off here.
The reason the turn is a little close is that you really do hate to check behind and see an A or K (or maybe another card that could complete a straight and/or a set like a T), but that only happens 12% of the time.
Weighing all the variables and probabilities, the turn is a check. Play a river.
I agree. I think shipping the turn is fine but I also think that we aren't really getting many calls from anything we like except a spazzed AJ but in a multiway pot it's unlikely V is 3 betting us with AJ. I think as played we need to check and hope to get to a cheap show down. I wouldn't be surprised if this is AA or JJ a lot.