Hero 450

Villain 550, Asian kid

(One hand that was interesting- saw him open to 17 in the CO, two callers, cbet 25 on A88 board, two callers, queen on the turn he bets 35, 1st caller goes all in for 120, second caller folds, villain tanks asks for him to show if he folds
Agrees, caller shows AQ, villain open mucks an 8)

3 shorty villains in between

Ranging from 60-150

Hero utg opens to 15 with qq

Call
Call
Call

SB villain 3bets to 46

Everyone calls

~230
J95 r

Villain bets 50
Hero calls
One shorty all in for less
Two others fold

~360 turn 2d

Villain checks
Hero?

It's close but I think I'd check here.

You have a pot sized bet left. So it's tempting to just ship the turn. But I think it's a pretty thin value shove. You don't get a call from TT. I don't know if villain would 3-bet AJ pre-flop. I think you value-town yourself to a calling range that looks more like KK+ than anything you beat if you shove turn.

So check turn and have a plan for the river. If the river is an A or K, you'll have to fold to a large bet or check behind if villain checks. If river isn't a scare card, and villain checks to you, you can make a maybe 60% pot sized value bet and see how light villain will call. Given our hand and the types of hands we 're hoping to get value from, I don't think we should be trying to stack off here.

The reason the turn is a little close is that you really do hate to check behind and see an A or K (or maybe another card that could complete a straight and/or a set like a T), but that only happens 12% of the time.

Weighing all the variables and probabilities, the turn is a check. Play a river.

I agree. I think shipping the turn is fine but I also think that we aren't really getting many calls from anything we like except a spazzed AJ but in a multiway pot it's unlikely V is 3 betting us with AJ. I think as played we need to check and hope to get to a cheap show down. I wouldn't be surprised if this is AA or JJ a lot.

As played it's a check. What about 4bet pre flop though? You would have a better idea what you're up against. I think $110 is reasonable

After he checks turn I ship, he tanks a little and his aces hold otr

One leak of mine is that I auto don't give villains that look like this credit for anything

Tough time figuring out someone lag enough to open to 17 with 8x, yet tight enough to fold to the relatively small shove when he hits trips

I think if he bets 100 otf I fold, 50 kept me in, so should I basically be set mining here?

Is 4bet/folding the best/possible? I feel like any 4bet is either going to be a pot sweetener or commit me
Obv if I have seen him squeeze before it changes things, but with relatively no info I'm kind of lost.

Given the stakes, the likelyhood of a 5bet bluff is not there. If you make it 110 he ships you fold and you're out $110 instead of $450. if he calls the pot is bigger and you can get it in on the flop usually way ahead (of a 4bet calling range, AK, mid pairs, and with some players AQ, AJ) but definately with more info, which makes for better decisions.