Quote:
Originally Posted by iluvpokstars
Hero looks down at QQ
Button bets 295
BB folds and shows JJ (accidentally)
Hero?
If the BB folded JJ, other than being in the middle of a possible squeeze, what do you beat that he didn't? For a loose player, I don't see a fold here from him.
Pot is $440 on the flop. The board shows a pair and an overcard. This is a very typical flop for an aggressive player to bet (since only 5 cards in the deck can hit this flop). The aggressive player (BB) checked, so he's either going for a check-raise or is showing weakness. You checked, signalling weakness as well. Most any solid player is going to take a stab at the pot here.
So, unless the button is sitting on AA, Kx, 2x, you're ahead here. The button is supposed to bet. So, the question now is, do you have a $700 hand? You cannot call $295 without committing to calling the other $400 later. There is no "call and evaluate" because any card other than a queen on the turn, changes nothing as to the strength of your hand.
Now, the pre-flop action says that the button does NOT have AA or KK at least 90% of the time (he should have 3-bet it himself). So, what's his hand distribution? AK, KT+, 32s, and 42s are the only parts of his range that should have connected here. Hands like A2, K2s, etc should have exited on the 3-bet and call in front pre-flop. 32s and 42s are also on the very weak end of his range. Are the K and one of the 2s suited on the flop for some sort of a flush draw? That could add more suited connectors to his range as they'd have connected with the board and worthy of a semi-bluff on the flop.
There are so few ways that he's ahead here that I expect his pre-flop range to have missed this flop AT LEAST 50% of the time.
Against what I'd consider to be the button's "reasonable" range pre-flop, you're 73% to win with the board being suited. If it's not suited, you have a little more equity.
Board: Kc 2d 2c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.517% 26.04% 00.48% 374340 6843.00 { QQ-22, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 73.483% 73.01% 00.48% 1049454 6843.00 { QQ }
The only caveat here is what you think of the button as a player. He's putting in $115 more of his $820 stack pre-flop, so if you can narrow his range down significantly based purely on amount, then the hand becomes much harder. So, will he call a 3-bet for that much of his stack with speculative hands? If not, then the only thing in a much tighter range that you beat is AQ or AJs on the flop. However, no matter what he holds, he should be making the flop bet. So, where do you put his pre-flop range of over-calling a 3-bet IP pre-flop? Since he's a reg, I assume you have some history here with him. If his pre-flop range here is AK,KQ,KJs,and JJ+, I think you have to fold. But that's an awful tight range.
I would LOVE to see what Bart Hansen says about this situation, as 5/5 is a lot of what LATB has on it.
It's a tough spot, based upon your reads, but the only sure thing is that you can't call the flop without intending to put the remaining $400 in. So, either you call the flop, and either c/c the turn, or shove the river. There is no fold to be had if you call the flop. If the turn goes ck,ck, I don't mind checking the river due to the concern that "only a better hand will call", but that same check should be expecting to induce a bluff, whether it's a bluff or a last-chance value bet by the villain.
