Quote:
Originally Posted by Beepeep
Good point, I probably think too much of Villain's earlier hand with me. Shouldn't be assuming he calls that wide here.
I do not think of live players as bad players. The game is just played so differently. I haven't played enough to really understand the dynamics yet.
As for shoving river, if we really believe he doesn't have a wide range and assign AKhh AKss AJhh AJss KJhh KJss, TT-JJ sets and A9s for his range. Isn't it terrible to shove vs this range?
Live is super read based and villain dependent. Their is a much wider variety and potentially way way worse players that you'll run into live than you will online.
I think given that he preflop raised and didn't 4 bet you, this means he isn't super passive. Usually a very passive player will only raise the nuts so will 4 bet you if 3 bet.
Let's looks at two options:
A) He's a loose preflop player who raises often with marginal holdings but often limps. Online 6 max with would correlate to a guy playing something like 20/50.
He's likely folding the flop here if he doesn't connect with at least a flush draw. So I think we can count out the spade hands. Because he's an aggro fish, AJs-A9s are probably in his range. (You block AQh and this type of player over values AKs and tries to GII pre). After the flop the only hands I think hes likely to continue with are ATh, AJh, KJh, and maybe JTh for flush draws (its notable that us holding the Qh blocks alot of his potential draws). A9s, JJ, TT, and maybe 88 for one pair hands. And then likely any set possible OTF although these may be discounted a bit because he shows no aggression. The turn changes nothing IMO against this opponent. That leaves V with 33 possible combinations. 2 are missed flush draws (reason for us not to check call because he's unlikely to have been on a draw and missed and want to bluff his money off to us) 2 are missed flush draws that connected with the A. 18 are smaller pocket pairs (though the 88 can be discounted a bit), 2 are A9s, and 9 are sets (though I think given the action, sets are pretty unlikely). So there are likely 20 hands we're ahead of and 13 we're behind (though I'd argue this could be bumped to about 14 were ahead of and 4 we're behind discrediting the 88 and sets but we'll stick to the original numbers for simplicity sake). 12 of the hands we beat will likely call our shove but probably none of the hands we beat bet the river when checked to. All 13 of the hands that beat us call our shove but again I think we can seriously discredit the sets making these numbers much more desirable at 4 of the hands we beat call. Sort of a close spot but what I think makes it a shove is that our fishy station of a villain is very likely to call with JJ or TT.
B)Villain is a good LAG.
I think little changes here except that we can be floated by Axss OTF. OTT however, if our LAG thinks this flop missed our range (which he would) he would semi bluff raise after picking up the NFD. Also, more so than in example A, our LAG is always raising a set OTT because there are 2 flush draws on the board. In this case we have a similar situation to example A by the river where we're ahead of 14 and behind 4. A significant difference here is that our LAG is less likely to call us down with TT and JJ than the fish but I think there's still a good enough chance to shove as he doesn't have enough busted draws for us to let him bluff.
TL;DR