Villain: Old gentleman, very loose passive. limp calling 80% of hands. First time playing with him i think. He has been running hot. Have seen him trap 2 monster hands, each time he has had the nuts i have noticed he does an extremely silly sigh call on the turn.

Hero: Lag been raising a lot of hands. Probably preceived as a bully.

HAND
Villain $220 in utg +2
Hero QQ $500 in cutoff

7 handed 1/2

Villain limps, hero makes it 20 to go. folds around to villain who flats.

Flop A 8 4 rainbow

Villain checks. Hero checks behind.

Turn 4

Villain does his patented nuts sigh and checks. Hero Checks

River Q

Villain checks. Hero makes it 45.


Questions: Flop check good? I feel like i would like to keep his range wide, HU in a single raised pot on such a dry board. A is very little part of his range. Maybe let him stab or catch a piece? River im looking at and i feel like i screwed up and should have just shipped. Hes never folding his 4. I might even get a call with an A on this sort of villain??

Is he really check/calling 4x and not check/raising river?

I think given him being super loose passive I would make a small value bet on the flop and check down if he calls. He will probably be calling flop pretty wide like any pocket pair, backdoor flush draws etc. That being said letting him pick up some kind of draw and betting turn (if he doesn't give of his nuts tell) is also fine.

If your read is accurate on his fake sigh/call tell then I like a shove if $200 doesn't mean much to him. If he buys in for $50 at a time, has ran it up to $220 and rarely reloads then he may find a ridiculous hero fold. If hes sticking down $200 a time and happy to reload then he can talk himself into a call easily enough given your line.

So you want to bet $200 into a $40 pot? Have you seen him make this kind of call before? If I haven't, I'd make the pot-sized river bet and hope he at least calls, if not raises the 4 himself.

When I have the effective nuts at 1-3, I almost always overbet (and sometimes comically large). I find that lots of villains don't think about bets based on size of pot. If he's gonna call a big bet, he's gonna call a big bet; whether it's $50 or $200.

Flop should generally be a bet here. Against this sort of villain you can get value from worse and it sets up a good situation to check turn for pot control and then evaluate on river depending on run out. Given your read on villain, turn is an obvious check. On an ace high board it would generally be a check anyway.

On river, I'm over betting a super passive when he checks to hero. Pot is so small though that shoving may be too much. This depends on villain and what sort of range you put him on for the turn sigh and what you think he could fold here. Against this sort of villain I like $100 here. That is about half his remaining stack and might get called by good AX, probably gets called by 4x and might get shoved on by boats. If you think villain can't fold 4X to a shove, then go ahead and shove. It is a stupid over bet but doesn't have to work very often to be the highest EV line.

100% chance to call 45 = EV of 45
25% chance to call 200 = EV of 50

Since you have a reliable tell that villain has the 4 I think you have more than 25% chance to get called, so shoving the river would maximize your EV.

Edit: Maybe betting like 100 would still get you near 100% to get called so that might even be a better option?

Why would we bet the flop?
The A is a huge scare card even for morons so there's a good chance villain will fold hands he might put in some money with on the turn or river.
The board isn't scary at all so we don't need to protect our hand?

Love the hundred bet!

Easy bomb river 100+

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:grunch:

I'm fine with checking this board. Let him try to rep an A on the turn after we check our obvious PP.

$200 is too much on the river against most V's. $100 may work much better. Without a history of seeing him call huge bets OTR, or of us making such bets and showing down less than the nuts, I don't like a shove.