Any thoughts on line or bet sizing is appreciated.

$1/2 game at casino, I had been at the table for about 45 minutes. I had been splashing around on a bunch of pots, and have shown 1 or 2 bluffs. No real big hands up to this point.

Villain: Mid to late 20s guy. I'd guess he would be on the loose end of the TAG category because he is not nitty but he is not laggy either. From what I've seen he is pretty spewy post flop. He has been stacked once since I sat down and is buying in for $200-$250 at a time. I heard him tell his friend he is in for $600.

Effective Stacks:
Me: $450
Villian: $350

Villain is UTG and I have QQ in the small blind.

Pot gets limped around to me and I make it $13. Big blind folds, Villain calls and everyone else folds. HU to the flop.

Flop ($32): K-K-3 rainbow
I bet $15, Villain calls

Turn ($62): K (putting 2 clubs on board)
I bet $20, Villain raises it to $60. I call.

River ($182): 10
I check, Villain shoves for $250(ish)

Thoughts.

What? Sounds nothing like a LAG or a TAG. Especially not if he's doing a lot of limp/calling from EP.

How many limps to you? Regardless, too small from the SB, imo, especially with a splashy image.

AP, flop is fine, and turn is too small the first time and a mandatory raise the second time.

AP river is always a call. 33 is way more likely than Kx.

Meh, Id call. Raising turn with quads seems very unlikely, and the shove looks bluffy too.

I think he has worse pairs a lot of the time, badly played flush and even air a lot of the time. From description he seems really bad, just cant fold here

fyp

Although idk how any of those want to shove river

Well, yes. That too. What I meant was "worse boats are much more likely than KX."

He's spewy post flop and you have essentially the 3rd nut hand. His limp/call means he doesn have AA a large % of time. Most people don't raise quads because they want to slow play. You basically have the nuts a large % of the time.

Honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Tx here that caught it OTR or just a total airball

There are a few items here that I see .. every hand is different though.

1) We need to make our mind up on the Turn what we are going to do on 'most' Rivers. Define his range somehow from a UTG limp-flat PF line.

2) Did you make a decision to check through all clubs? Were you betting all other cards (except A) on the River?

3) Do we think we get more value from seeing River or from 3-betting Turn to $110 and setting up for an easier shove on River?

4) Does the flush hitting change V range .. or change our range in V eyes?

I think we need to 3-bet Turn or lead River here quite often, but not every time. I think I really need to live read this guy, but am probably calling a high percentage of the time. GL

We really need to know V's image of Hero and V's idea of his image to Hero. I have a pretty loose image and that allows me to bet my quads in spots like this and get paid. This has been only 45 minutes and V may not care about image or betting lines at all ... it's 1/2!! I also know that lots of super loose players will slow play their monsters (without even realizing it) with shifts in their betting patterns.

Hero has really allowed V range to be much wider by not 3-betting Turn or leading River. This puts more pressure on a call but also allows Hero to call more often IMO. GL

Thanks to all for the input so far. Here were my thoughts to expand on Answer20's post.

I could care less about the clubs hitting and if anything this was a good card for me. If he does show up with a runner runner flush and wants to spaz I'll take it.

I checked because I think I'm good here a lot of the time and I wanted to give him a chance to keep bluffing if that was the line he wanted to take. You think by not leading river here I'm missing too much value?

I ruled out AA and AK because I didn't see him limping UTG with these hands. I ruled out KQ because I have 2 Qs. So what Ks are in his limp/call range from UTG. I'm thinking KJ (suited and off), K10 (suited and off) and maybe K9 (suited and off).

He could very well have 33 and just decided to turn his hand into a bluff after the 3rd K hit.

He could be spazzing with any pockets here putting me on Ax.

If somehow he has a 10 he could think the river helped him leading to the shove.

Also if it is a bluff the AI on river is the only bluff that will work. It's not like he can just be $100 or something like that.

Quads is way more likely than 33.

I think river as played is an easy fold.

33 = 3 combos.

KQ = 2
KJ = 4
KT = 3
Kxs = 3 (assume 3 suited Kxs; could be many more).

That's 4:1 quads to 33, i.e. 80% quads and 20% 33. That's a conservative estimate depending on villain - he can never manufacture more 33... but a loose villain pre-flop can certainly have more Kxs + K9o, K8o; quads could be as much as a 90% likelihood in a [33, Kx] range.

But I rarely expect worse boats to take this line, or any type of 3x, 44-88, etc. Especially the river shove.

I don't love hero's line or bet sizing.

Check/calling river is especially worth discussing. It's a textbook example of a negative freeroll.

On the river, you give villain the opportunity to a) check behind (or perhaps bet smaller) with worse boats and b) bet larger or shove with stronger hands / quads. If you plan to check/call river, you must instead bet for value yourself.

I think he see's me as a solid lag. A few hands earlier I raised the turn from the button with an OE straight draw (Q10 on J9xx board) after the cutoff bet and took down the pot. That hand was checked around on the J9x flop and then the cutoff took a stab at the pot on the turn. Showed the Q10 bluff to the table.

Suggestions on a different line/bet sizing please.

Good points

Actually agre that quads is more likely than 33 (though not "way"), but if you notice my FMP, I meant under-boat.

Also, though, I remove a lot of KX from V's range, as even spewy players tend to slowplay quads at LLSNL, ime. Also, OP's reads are confusing, but limp/call pre is much more often a small PP than a mediocre broadway from semi-competent Vs.

This is very bad. Why are you teaching the competition how to semi-bluff and that you're capable of it?

Flop is close between a bet and a check.

Think about villain's flop calling range. A bet can get value from lower pocket pairs and 3x. Maybe Ax. But villain doesn't always call with worse pairs and may rarely if ever call with Ax. Kx is a decent % of villain's flop continuing range. With 2 K's on the flop, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, Kxo, Kxs = 30-35+ combos. Meanwhile, 44-88 = 30; 3x adds a bunch more, as would Ax if we include that.

With no draws, the flop is also close to a WA/WB spot. Meaning, if you are ahead, villain likely has only 2-3 outs, or a 4-6% chance of improving on the turn. With a pocket pair, he has 2 outs to a set, with Ax, he has 3 outs to top pair. And 3x has 5 outs. One drawback of not betting flop for thin value is that you will often see a turn T, J, Q, A, which may serve as a scare card against lower pocket pairs that could have given you flop value. However, those cards can also pair villain (with JT, he has 6 "outs" to pair up) and give you an opportunity to get two streets of thin value.

So flop is close, but I like to check. Plan to check/call. If flop checks through, I'll bet half pot on the turn for value. Betting flop isn't terrible, and there may well be thin value, but I also put weight on keeping the pot smaller and allowing villain to catch up to worse made hands with unpaired hands. Generally, on this texture, the larger the pot we play, the worse equity we have.

On the turn, you have to decide based on villain whether you bet/call or bet/fold. Readless, I probably bet/fold. My bet targets value from worse boats. And I'm betting 50-60, not 20. Villain will call a pot-sized bet with worse boats. Sizing smaller serves no purpose. Your bet of 20 misses value, and it may also induce a light raise. Who knows. If I bet 20 and villain raised to 60, I would also call. But I don't bet 20. If I bet 60 and villain (again, this depends on your read of villain...) made it 150, I'd fold.

The river is the easiest technical issue to spot, like I said. It's a negative freeroll.

If you will be calling off a large bet or shove, then you need to bet or shove the river for value yourself. (Unless you actually think villain is a maniac who called pre with w/e, called the flop with air, raised the turn with air, and will often shove the river with air).

Willy do you like checking your whole range on this flop?

Is villain sophisticated enough to think about what hero has? Specifically, is villain the sort who will think that hero likely has a pocket pair after calling the turn raise? If villain thinks that hero has a boat, is he capable of bluffing? If he only shoves on the end if he thinks he has the best hand, what is his river range?

If villain has been spewy, has he been spewy for smaller bets on the flop or has he been spewing for big bets on the river? Has that spew been making bad calls or bad bets? When he was seen getting stacked, was he the aggressor?

He is not an overly thinking player. In my opinion his knowledge just resorts to home games. Im a reg at this casino and I've never seen him before, and didn't seem like he has ever played online.

From what I've seen he was making bad calls and calling down light. When he got stacked he was the aggressor with AK on an A high board. Other person had 2 pair.

Probably not.

AA and QQ seem like especially good checks b/c of WA/WB dynamics.

Couldn't you make the same argument about AQ/AJ? We're not way behind if called but were only getting better to call and our bet is strictly for protection.

If we check some big pairs, we're protected from villain auto barreling off with air.

You definitely could. But AA and QQ should be "better" checks. Those Ax hands can benefit a bit more from a c-bet for the ability to get folds now or on the turn from better hands (44-88, etc) and also get folds from many hands with 6 outs. AA and QQ benefit very little when 44-88 type hands fold (assuming a flop check may get us a light peel later), and villain's unpaired cards don't have 6 outs vs AA,QQ. In fact, most only have fractional runner runner outs.

Grunch.

AP, I'm folding the river here. I don't think V is bluffing nearly 60% of the time.

I'm not a big fan of the overall line. On the flop, SPR is 10 and we've got a big pair in a way ahead/way behind situation. Most of the time, we'll lose a lot or win a little.

I think we maximize the win and minimize the loss with a check/call plan. I'll call two streets but fold the river if V bets, bets, bets.

If flop and turn are both checked through, I put out $30 on the river, planning to get snapped off by V.

Never bet QQ into trup KKK. It's a moron move.

While that is a good reference joke, I include link, so OP and others realize it's not intended as serious strat advice.