1/1/2, 8 handed

Pretty tight table. I've been playing pretty TAG, probably on the nitish side for 2 hours. Only shown down good hands.

Folds to me in HJ with QQ (and $360 stack), I raise to $10 (raises on table have ranged from $6- $11, but I've just done $10+$2/limper throughout).

Loose Passive CO calls (~$100)
TAG BB seems competent calls (~$200), but only been at table for 30 mins

3 to the flop ($26)

Flop 556 rainbow.
BB checks, I bet $20, cutoff folds, BB calls

Turn 10 completes rainbow
BB checks, I bet $40

River 2
BB leads $45, Hero ?

He made all his bets after thinking for a few seconds.

We know with him being TAG, he doesn't have QQ+ or AKs/o because he would be 3-betting pre, so we are able to scale back his range that much pre. He would most likely be calling with any suited A, suited connectors, 56s-KQs, some suited broadways like QTs+, KJs+, AQs+ along with all small pocket pairs. Possibly make a case that he 3-bets TT, JJ but will probably be calling these given the tight image. On the flop all suited connectors from 89s-KQs, suited one gappers mentioned are folding and that knocks out a significant part of his range. Hands that are calling flop are 55-TT, 56s-78s & A5s. You can sprinkle in a few suited broadway connectors and one gappers that have the BdFd, like AQ, KJ. On the turn you can make a case for checking back. But I like the bet and we can play some rivers. His range stays fairly the same, the only adjustment we would make would be to knock out most of his broadway cards and his one gappers and keep a few pocket pairs like 77, or 88. On the river when he leads I think we call here a decent amount of the time. the only hands from his range we are losing to are, TT, 55, 66, 56, A5. We are getting around 4.2:1 on a call meaning we only have to be right about 20% of the time. So calling 80% of the time here is correct. This is probably more analysis than needed for this hand. hahah just talking myself through it as well. Hope this helps!!

Good news is that he is polarized to a weak hand or the near nuts. The bad news is that you won't get much more out of him if he has a weak hand. The pot is about $190 after his bet. The safe play is to call. If he's trapping, he won't get more out of you. However, I don't think he's trapping all that often. A min-raise to $90 would be an interesting play. Can he really fold getting almost 7:1? If so, then you can use this on him with air. If not, you got about an extra 3 hour's of profit off of him. If he shoves, you can be pretty sure he has you beat and you can fold.

High five for team $10 + $2/limper!

I typically check an overpair back on this sort of flop and turn. If you go for three streets you'll only get action from better hands.

As played, shrug and toss your money in. God knows what he has, but we have an overpair and are being laid like 4:1.

I tanked, and felt he had it and so folded. In hindsight I think it was pretty weak sauce, given the price. I don't need to be wrong in my read that often for it to be worth it to call as many have pointed out. He was surprised at the fold, and said "You're folding for that much more?", and mucked without showing, so who knows...Also the Ed Miller line around you usually know by the turn if someone has a monster haunts me.

I think the turn check behind on the turn has some merit, with the intention of betting or calling (if he leads) most rivers.