Hero ($380): Mid 20s playing TAG. The hand before this I just lost an all-in from a short stack where I raised $15 pre and he shoved for $65 and I called with AQ and lost to QJo.

Villian ($600): Asian man who has been a little crazy when short stacked but has been running good lately and seems to know what he's doing generally. He's certainly a station. He shipped 56o into a 5-handed pot for his remaining $65 on an AAQ board earlier and got there with running clubs when the preflop raiser had trips. He's running good and in the rack and has announced this is his last hand before he leaves.

Villian is UTG+1 and makes it $12. One caller, and I am on the BTN with QQ. I 3bet to $30. He calls and everyone else folds.

Flop ($75):9TJ

He checks, I bet $40. He says "raise" and sizes out $70 more on top. I call.

Turn ($295): 4

He confidently and very quickly announces "$200".

Hero??

Fold. You're too far behind and your implied odds suck.

I call / shove my last $5, hes just pushing you around / gambling on his last hand. "Strong means weak" Mike Caro. Semi bluff AQ makes sense with his $15 pre raise. Most the time you have him, and if he is on 2 pair then you can catch up. No reason for him to bet all your chips so fast with nuts.

I dunno man. We are hypothesizing that, on the last hand of his evening, this guy wants to spew off half his stack on a multistreet bluff against the guy who 3bet him pre. You never know what this guy shows up with, but I'll bet its 2p+ more often than not.

getting paid 2.4:1 so do we have almost 0 pot equity more than 70% of the time? How often does a little crazy Asian man gamble? Semi-bluffing a lot here and when he does have 2p we still carry 13 outs to the river.

Last hand he wants to play, wants action, picks up just enough of it that he isnt folding and fires away. Could be holding pair / straight draw were crushing, straight draw were crushing, 2 pair we are 36% equity and proper to call.

He would do this with JQ, or JT on his last hand, we hold QQ so he is less likley to have KQ (and JQ for that matter), could have JJ, TT, 99 we still have 22% equity so were -ev but not a ton.

And you come across KJ, AJ, AQ, KcJc so on. All hands we destroy, AK just a bluff. Not the most likely but still possible. He is quick and confident, and really pushing. So could easily be bluffing. Just wants to win a little more before he goes home or end on a high note, or get back to even or whatever.

Honestly take it back and when I flop open ended I like to check the flop and get some pot control, better read on turn, hope we don't turn an A

How are there implied odds in this scenario where Villian has already bet and its HU? Help me understand that.

Anyone else like just shipping the flop?

We are always doing ok equity wise, except for the rare times that has KQ here, which shouldn't be that often given that we hold two blockers.

Board: 9d Th Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.446% 41.82% 03.62% 42234 3657.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 54.554% 50.93% 03.62% 51432 3657.00 { QQ-99, AJs, JTs, T9s }

With the dead money, if he folds even 10% of the time it's profitable for us to shove here.

I really like a check back on this flop. The only terrible card for us is an ace and even if it comes we still have out. It has been my experience that most players who are playing out of the rack and are about to leave tend to play tighter hand ranges and generally don't get too out of line.

i bet he showed the asian man AA= J10 sooted.

really he has quite a few sets in his range and really no QJ imo. I could see AQ as being the only hand we beat but we lose to many more combos.

OTB with QQ and a $25 pot, I'm raising to at least $45 pre.

As played, I give a lot of credit to flop ck raises. You had a shot at the draw. It missed. Buh bye.

Why didn't you include KQ in the stove range? It's almost as likely as any one 2p hand (8 combos vs 9) but more importantly we have 6% equity against it.

I also think expecting v to fold any 2p at any point is extremely optimistic.

Because I forgot to click it in stove?

Board: 9d Th Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.539% 37.61% 03.93% 42450 4431.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 58.461% 54.53% 03.93% 61548 4431.00 { QQ-99, AJs, KQs, JTs, T9s }

Even if he never folds, we are still better than break even with a jam, aren't we?

$225 in the pot after he raises.
We've got $310 left that we'd be putting in a $450 pot, so we need 40.6% equity. If we have 0 fold equity, we still profit a few $'s.
And I've got to feel that he folds T9 some portion of the time. And if he has KQ, does he has QJ here? Would be a pretty good situation for us if he does.

Yeah, that makes sense. I guess shoving flop is the way to go then.

I dunno. Just my thoughts.

But then again, I raise too much anyway.

There is still one more street to go and we have a straight draw. If it hits, you're going to have a hard time getting paid.