Eff stacks are 350

I make it 15 from ep with qq. 1 call. Vil raises to 35. I call. Other guy folds.

Flop (85): Q52hh

I check, he bets $25. I make it $70, he calls

Turn (225): Ad

I have 245 behind. Hero?


V: Standard player. Running pretty hot today. Haven't seen him bluff or get out of line. Plays lots of hands in limped pots but less so in raised pots. He plays very standard fit or fold in raised pots.

I'm early position, he is button
He is straightforward. tight in raised pots and loose in limped pots
He has a huge stack, covers me. I have 350



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Any more info on the villain?

Standard player. Running pretty hot today. Haven't seen him bluff or get out of line. Plays lots of hands in limped pots but less so in raised pots. He plays very standard fit or fold in raised pots.

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Lead and hope he has AKhh. I hate ch after we c/r...if he has KK...bad turn but that is probs most getting anyway.

If you think he would raise you OTF with KK/AA there is some merit to leading. Could probably play for stacks there.

position, stack size, your image/his?

is the queen a heart (do you have a heart)?

can villain 3b aq/ak?

bet sizes please? also i assume he bet and you raised the flop bet?
edit:

so you are ep and he is BN?

I say lead for 30 and 3b the flop

Agree with this. You are going to get raised a ton if he is as straightforward as you say he is. I would expect the 3! to be called. Only thing you have to do after that is hold.

$95/shove river

Pretty much this. Anywhere in the 90-100 range and shove river.

Pretty sure AA/KK is getting in here almost always regardless of lead or c/r 75bb eff in a 3bet pot. Unless he's a turbo nit or super passive which op didn't state.

I'm more concerned with getting value from the rest of his range. Leading definitely has merit, but not really sure " to stack AA/KK " is the right reason.

I prefer checking for a couple reasons. One is he's going to cbet close to 100% of his range here. Probably put you on AK or if he has AK an under pair. Two if we donk lots of players will just muck hands like JJ/TT here because they subconsciously realize they lost initiative and might be facing multiple barrels and lots of pressure with their under pair. They will however call a bet on the turn, and often get sucked into calling one on the river too. And it's not like we're getting 3 streets of value with those hands.

Stacking AA/KK here shouldn't really be concern unless villain is a monstrous weak tight nit.

I shoved

Am I ever getting called by worse? AKhh obviously, but what about just AK?

I don't know if he 3bet AQs but if he does, he's definitely calling my shove right?

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Check

FWIW, I wrote that when this HH was still in the chat thread. Very short winded answer. Since then the OP has been edited 5 million times. The first post was very plain. No reads, stack sizes, etc.

I think to accurately decide what the best play is we need to put this guy on a 3! range and a cbet%. If he has a high cbet% and will continue with hands like JJ/TT on that flop then we can make a case for checking. If he is straight forward tight like OP said he may decide to check the flop with JJ/TT and play from the turn.

Really a ton of this depends on much of a hero this guy is.

What hands do you think we're repping with this line and how do you think villain reacts to your turn check?

Well since OP didn't call him a huge station/hero, I can assume we aren't getting 3 streets of value from TT/JJ so him checking through isn't really a big deal. Only sucks if he checks an A/K peels.

Unless OP knows this guy from many sessions, it's going to be really hard to give him an accurate 3bet range. To give him a 3bet range we'd need to know table dynamics, OPs image, and obv how many times villian has 3! this session.
Still think we probably make more money from JJ/TT by checking. Donk looks pretty strong here, wouldn't be surprised if JJ/TT just pitched it to a donk. Worried he's gonna have to face 3 streets. If it checks through though he's gonna call on all blank turns, and maybe even a blank river thinking he showed weakness and now you're trying to buy the pot.

If he's passive/stationy a lead is probably correct, but doesn't seem to be OPs read.

I've only played with him for this session. From what I saw, he only 3-bet one time and he showed up with KK.

He's a straightforward player in raised pots as I stated. He doesn't raise much. This is 1/2 and so I'm not sure if he's 3-betting too wide of a range. The widest I'd give him is AA-TT, AK/AQ. But that's being optimistic. Realistically, I think its AA-QQ every time, JJ most of the time, TT sometimes, AK most of the time, and AQ rarely. Here's an analysis of the hand that I posted in my PG&C:

I'm not really too worried about my flop c/r. I think its the right play here. If he has JJ/TT or AKo, I'm not getting much value past the flop anyway. AKhh will call a c/r as will AA and KK. Those are the hands I'm targeting here because they are the only hands I'm getting value from post-flop. If I donk out, JJ/TT/AK fold anyway. If I check/call, I don't get max value from AKhh. It has to be check/raise on the flop.

The turn is the spot I'm sick about. The only hands he calls my C/R with have to be AA, KK, AKhh, right? But AKhh is not in his range every time. AA is going to stack me, KK is going to fold. AKhh probably calls off, but again, thats only sometimes he has that 1 combination where I get value in his range.

I'm really hoping someone can poke a hole in this so I don't feel as ****ty about my play. But it looks like I butchered this and lit $240 on fire.

I think shoving turn is a bit spew and you're only getting called by AA (which I'm guessing is what happened). Your reasoning is sound in this thread. This is probably one of those spots where it's correct to be MUBsy, though it's hard not to just shovel it in with a big set so don't feel bad.

Like you said, you only get value from 1 combo and lose to 3. Against most guys you'd be happy to GII here but we've already managed to reduce this guys calling range to AA/KK and occasionally AKhh on the flop.

Flop play seems fine to me, give him a chance to c-bet with worse (he is 100% c-betting with AA/KK), or if he checks back his JJ/TT, which you say he might have, he has a chance to bink on the turn and get stacked but you aren't making money off these hands ever otherwise.

You can c/r larger though and still get called IMO, he's not continuing with anything other than AA/KK and probably isn't folding for an extra 20-40 or so.

Firstly, I definitely agree with Stim that checking flop is better than leading. Like he said, we're probably stacking KK+ anyway, so we get more value from his whole range by letting him c-bet all those AK combos (it's worth noting that if he 3bets AK every time, which may or may not be the case, there are 16 AK combos compared to 12 total combos of AA/KK). If we knew villain well enough to know that he's an aggressive player who would never pot control an overpair OTT, I could see an argument for c/c flop c/shove turn, but absent a read like that I like the flop c/r. The biggest problem with the hand imo is the c/r size, because it just leaves stacks so awkward for the turn. If you make your c/r a little bigger you can just jam all turns without having to worry about him folding weaker parts of his range to your scary looking shove. On the flop you essentially bet $45 into a pot of $135, then overbet shoved $245 into $225 the turn; wouldn't you rather have bet $85 into $135 on the flop (by c/ring to $110), and then shoved $205 into $310 on the turn?

Thanks NS

I didn't even think about my flop c/r sizing but you're absolutely right.

If his range is AA-JJ, AK... he's calling a bigger c/r with AA-KK, AKhh anyway and folding the rest of it even if I min-raise. I definitely blundered there too.

After I step away from the table, it all seems so obvious and easy. But in-game I wasn't thinking this deeply about ranges and sizing.

Agree with NS, that a larger flop c/r makes it easier to get stacks in on the turn and as a side benefit, gets more money on the flop for those times when villain is just taking off a card to see if you 2nd-barrel or an action-killer drops on the turn.

Love the thought process here, def agree about larger flop c/r.

As played pretyy gross turn. You get value from 1 combo of akhh, likely lose value to 6 combos of kk which will probably fold, and get stacked by 3 combos of AA, which are definitely calling. Puke spot, but im probably checking here.

In game is a different story tho. Im prob stacking off.

people being too results oriented.

set over set? tough break. you hit a two-outer. he hit a two-outer. you should be getting stacked here EVERY TIME this happens.

if you don't you are playing scared or he has turned his cards face up.

I like the thought process throughout the hand. This just seems like one of those awful 1/2 hands where you should clearly bet because you have a big hand but villain is just such a nit that you're effectively bluffing with the second nuts. blaaahhh

Story of my live poker life haha

idk how standard it is. i dont wanna get stacked here and i dont think im losing value by checking. i dont think hes 3betting pre wide enough for me to be stacking off on this turn.

just such a sick spot for me. so hard to check/fold.