Playing 1/2 NL 10-handed
Hero: been at table for 2 hours, up $300 due to flopping middle set in one hand and rivering the nut flush in another. I am probably seen as a TAG, maybe a little nitty. I have been playing tighter than usual preflop as 4 of the 5 best players at the table are to my immediate left. I have $503
Villain: probably the best player at the table. He has been playing a solid TAG game, isolating limpers, raising in position, c-betting with the right frequency, etc. He has been showing down mostly winners, haven't seen any big bluffs. He covers me.
OTTH
Folds to hero in MP who raises to $10 with Q
Q
Villain in CO calls
Button calls
BB calls
Flop ($40) 9
3
7
BB checks, Hero bets $25. Villain calls. Button and BB fold.
Turn ($90) 6
Hero bets $50. Villain
looks over my stack and raises to $170 total.
Hero???
Ugh. I hate these spots OOP with overpairs when deepstacked. They suck. If I had 100 BB, I would be more willing to GII here with QQ on this board. But for 250 BB, obviously not.
The villain's big raise seems very polarizing. Given my image and the way the hand has played out, my hand looks like an overpair. Therefore, I believe one of two things is happening here.
1. Either the villain has 99, 77, 33, T8s, 97s and is looking to get stacks in now. (Is this MUBsy thinking?)
Or...
2. The villain is trying to blow me off my overpair with some sort of flush-draw, straight draw bluff. (Do people do this at 1/2?)
I know the Baluga Whale Theorem states that one should strongly reconsider the strength of one pair-hands when facing a raise on the turn.
What should I do here? Folding seems a little tight, calling OOP seems awful, and raising seems suicidal.
Did I make a mistake prior to this decision? Should I have checked the turn to keep the pot small? Should I have bet bigger on the turn? Thanks for the help