QQ, do I go for value on the river? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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QQ, do I go for value on the river?

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01-06-2015 , 02:19 AM

Matt0

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 51

Just sat down at my local casino, only field 2/4NL max 300 buyin

Have never played with V before he looks mid 40s and has a 1.5k ish stack, I'm a mid-20s white guy, bought in for max

To the hand:

I open QQ in mid position to $15 (standard size), both blinds defend

Flop: J84r (Pot = $45)

Checked to me - I bet $35, small blind folds, V (BB) calls

Turn: 7r (Pot = $115)

Checks to me - I bet $80, he tanks for a while and calls

River: A (Pot = $275)

He checks, what should I do? (I have $170 left)

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01-06-2015 , 02:22 AM

hobe

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 415

With him checking the river I'd assume he has like jx and I would bet about 100 try to get him to look you up. Hard to get called here but I would assume you have the best hand a lot of the time.

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01-06-2015 , 02:25 AM

hobe

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 415

Honestly I may just jam for value and tried to get looked up, but very player dependent. If he is a thinking player he may think you're always jamming this river card after he checks and may look you up. If he is a weak player that may just say "hey it's100 gotta pay you off" then I think that bet would work pretty well.

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01-06-2015 , 02:33 AM

NebDanger

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 673

$100 on the river sounds like a good value bet. A is probably a good card for you as you now have the edge of villain talking himself into the idea that you're bluffing. A flat 100 gets looked up a lot by Jx I feel, definitely worth it.

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01-06-2015 , 03:03 AM

HH2010

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 925

Nice hand. The 7 was the worst possible turn, and A is worst possible river. I would be committed on any river except K or A. Betting $100 is kind of silly if he shoves it's a trivial call. We beat only KJ at this point and have blockers to QJ.

River is a check fold imo.

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01-06-2015 , 03:12 AM

hobe

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 415

He was checked to

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01-06-2015 , 03:34 AM

NebDanger

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 673

Quote:

Originally Posted by HH2010

Why are you limiting his range to only as low as QJ? He's a huge stack and in the BB calling after another player called, it makes his range a lot wider. JT and J9 play like this the exact same way, as do hands like T8 and 98. I think for more nutted hands like 56 or T9 he doesn't check the river. Especially a hand like AJ where he hits gin in the river, I doubt he's giving up that kind of value. Hero's stack of 170 into 220 would be too sweet to pass up IMO.

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01-06-2015 , 03:51 AM

Matt0

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 51

I tend to agree that his range feels like jx but with someone who ive never seen play before in their mid 40s (I play a lot in this casino) I'm assuming he isn't the sort of player to hero call a river shove but this assumption could be misplaced. I also have to worry that he may be trapping in some sort of weird way (low stakes people seem to do this oddly)

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01-06-2015 , 04:16 AM

bombonanza

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,173

just jam. we can get value vs Jx. if he has a set or T9, with our stack he can correctly x/shove turn since we rep mostly overpairs.

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01-06-2015 , 04:19 AM

#10

Aves2

journeyman

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 237

I agree his most likely hands are Jx or 8x. He may have picked up a gutshot on the turn. Bet an amount you think might get called by those hands. If u don't think he will call an all in, bet something like $80 on the river. Note you will have to fold if he raises.

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01-06-2015 , 10:27 AM

#11

HH2010

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 925

I just dont see how JT or J9 call a shove on the river, especially when the Ace hits. $100 is effectively a shove because we have so little left behind. If anything the valuebet sizing should be like "same bet" $80 to target JT.

This is really just a math problem in thin value betting. We need 50pct equity in order to lay a breakeven value bet on the river. Against a range of J9,JT,QJ,AJ,56,9T we have exactly 50pct.

So betting river is a breakeven play, but a huge error in hand planning imo because we are screwed if V shoves and have to pay him off.

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01-06-2015 , 10:34 AM

#12

DeathCabForTootie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5,722

Grunch:

Move in, it's less than a PSB. If he rivered two pair, so be it.

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01-06-2015 , 02:24 PM

#13

trucdouf

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 2,216

Not the popular opinion but I check it back. I don't think we are getting Jx hands to look us up nearly as often as we are value owning ourselves.

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01-06-2015 , 02:36 PM

#14

IPlayNLHE

adept

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 889

Quote:

Originally Posted by trucdouf

Not the popular opinion but I check it back. I don't think we are getting Jx hands to look us up nearly as often as we are value owning ourselves.

This, with no history on villain I just check it back. Only times I amvalue betting this river is if its against a villain I have a bluff history with.

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01-06-2015 , 02:48 PM

#15

timmay28

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 2,845

consider checking turn.... depends on your initial impression of villain

- the obv draws/sometimes 78 got there

- getting 3 streets from jx is usually less likely than b/c/b

having said, betting turn is likely to yield higher ev overall vs a random bigstacked mid 40's guy

just arguing that checking in these spots gets overlooked TONS on this forum

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01-06-2015 , 03:45 PM

#16

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,780

I check this back. I just don't think he's calling with anything that we beat, so betting is kind of pointless.

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01-06-2015 , 04:27 PM

#17

dicecube

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 313

I had a similar situation, he had AJ

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01-06-2015 , 04:32 PM

#18

Cyo

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 250

Quote:

Originally Posted by Javanewt

I check this back. I just don't think he's calling with anything that we beat, so betting is kind of pointless.

This.

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01-06-2015 , 04:32 PM

#19

Rackemwillies

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 169

Check or jam. Either are fine options. I'd assume he has KJ or J10 here. He may hero call a jam but probably not.

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01-06-2015 , 07:27 PM

#20

hobe

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 415

Quote:

Originally Posted by Javanewt

I check this back. I just don't think he's calling with anything that we beat, so betting is kind of pointless.

I think that even though he may fold jx some of the time it's going to be profitable to jam here every time because a lot of bad players don't like to fold these hands.

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01-06-2015 , 07:42 PM

#21

Naxetami

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 493

I'll probably get trolled for being a nit, but I check this river. Too few hands that I beat will call a shove. And while I'm a sucker for thin value bets, you can't really b/f with remaining stack sizes.

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01-06-2015 , 09:05 PM

#22

jesse123

adept

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,078

Quote:

Originally Posted by trucdouf

Not the popular opinion but I check it back. I don't think we are getting Jx hands to look us up nearly as often as we are value owning ourselves.

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01-06-2015 , 10:39 PM

#23

Matt0

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 51

Results:

Spoiler:

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01-06-2015 , 11:01 PM

#24

trucdouf

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 2,216

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt0

Results:

Spoiler:

Whether you bet 80, 50, or all-in, the same logic applies. So no.

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01-06-2015 , 11:45 PM

#25

AsianNit

banned

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 9,881

I like showing down the hand against an unknown and making a decision based on previous hands shown down against a player I have a read on. I know players I check against because they fold QJ on the river and players I make a modest value bet against because they call with 98.

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