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QQ against River shove. QQ against River shove.

11-13-2015 , 04:59 AM
1/2 at a charity room. Villian was a late-50s type. I had played with him 3-4 times before an my reads he lacked ability to make tough folds, makes a lot of bets with no defined meaning and he raised too light preflop as well as called 3-bets with a perceived range of AK-A6, AA-22, KQs-76s, KQo-J10o. I thought this spot was standard but wondered if there was something I was missing.

UTG Limp 120BB Limp 2(5)
UTG +1 Fold
Villian 180BB Raise to 10(15)
CO Hero QdQs Reraise to 35(50). Started hand with 150BB
Butt Fold
SB Fold
UTG Fold
Villian Call 25(75)

Flop 9h8d6d
Villian check
Hero bet 40(115)
Villian calls 40 (155)

Turn 6h

Villian check
Hero bet 85(240)
Villian call 85. (325)

River 2s

Villian bets pot to put hero all-in for 140(465). Hero?
QQ against River shove. Quote
11-13-2015 , 09:26 AM
Never folding. This is a missed draw a very high % of the time. Given pot odds and your read I think this is a snap call.
QQ against River shove. Quote
11-13-2015 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shpanko
Never folding. This is a missed draw a very high % of the time. Given pot odds and your read I think this is a snap call.
This. IDK that it's a "very high % of the time," but well above the 23.14% of the time that you need to make this a call.
QQ against River shove. Quote
11-13-2015 , 11:51 AM
call.

spr is so tiny you can't really fold it even though it looks like he filled up with 99 or 88. Call and hope he missed a draw.
QQ against River shove. Quote
11-13-2015 , 11:52 AM
In your quest to get max value with QQ on just about the worse board for QQ, we end up in this spot. I'm not a fan of stacking off 150bb at any point in this hand, this was a situation to pot control.

As played
With villain description The only bluff draw he can have is missed hearts, most missed straight draw combos probably have a pair in them as well and would want to get to showdown. I kind of like a fold here on river against described villain("he lacked ability to make tough folds") this player type tends to like showdowns, not tend to bluff. Especially not a 1/3 pot sized bet as a bluff.



His range by the river is likely has 88+ or AQ/AKhh
We beat TT/JJ/AQ/AK, and lose to 88/99/KK/AA
Yet I KIND of want to eliminate TT/JJ because I think those hands players tend to get a little more showdown happy with compared to AA/KK even though their relative hand strength is very similar. And the AQ/AKhh hands I think would tend towards a check/fold here because they don't feel they have enough to bluff the river with. It's definitely ballsy to shove the river after opponent limp raised preflop, bet flop and turn, and give your opponent huge odds to call with a bluff, but its definitely not 0% that villain would do it.
QQ against River shove. Quote
11-13-2015 , 11:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shpanko
Never folding. This is a missed draw a very high % of the time. Given pot odds and your read I think this is a snap call.
this all day. can't ever fold unless you have a stone cold read
QQ against River shove. Quote
11-13-2015 , 03:52 PM
AP... I think we need to call. You have bet very weakly on Flop and Turn at 50% and River is almost 3.5 to 1.

Next time ... Bet bigger OTF ($65+) against this board so you can check Turn and call a more reasonable bet OTR. I don't care that we turned our hand face up, make him pay for the Turn!! ... and go from there. River changes nothing. GL
QQ against River shove. Quote
11-13-2015 , 04:07 PM
Hard to give him credit for a 6 the would iso pre and we beat everything else but 88 and 99. I don't even think AA or KK is do king here. I probably call and take a note as it is an interesting line with whatever he has
QQ against River shove. Quote
11-13-2015 , 04:21 PM
Honestly, I think it may be closer than what others are saying here. Yes, definitely 100% do call. But I don't think it's a fist pump beat him to the pot type call. In my experience when villains wake up to a complete blank on the river, they're usually not bluffing.
QQ against River shove. Quote
11-13-2015 , 10:51 PM
If you read him as calling 3bets wide, more than 35 pre would be better for just value. Also flop and turn bets can be larger again for value.
As for the river snap it off as there is a large range that he could of had pre-flop from your read that would continue the flop and turn and cant fold for 140 into 465
QQ against River shove. Quote
11-15-2015 , 12:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohmyrage
In your quest to get max value with QQ on just about the worse board for QQ, we end up in this spot. I'm not a fan of stacking off 150bb at any point in this hand, this was a situation to pot control.

As played
With villain description The only bluff draw he can have is missed hearts, most missed straight draw combos probably have a pair in them as well and would want to get to showdown. I kind of like a fold here on river against described villain("he lacked ability to make tough folds") this player type tends to like showdowns, not tend to bluff. Especially not a 1/3 pot sized bet as a bluff.



His range by the river is likely has 88+ or AQ/AKhh
We beat TT/JJ/AQ/AK, and lose to 88/99/KK/AA
Yet I KIND of want to eliminate TT/JJ because I think those hands players tend to get a little more showdown happy with compared to AA/KK even though their relative hand strength is very similar. And the AQ/AKhh hands I think would tend towards a check/fold here because they don't feel they have enough to bluff the river with. It's definitely ballsy to shove the river after opponent limp raised preflop, bet flop and turn, and give your opponent huge odds to call with a bluff, but its definitely not 0% that villain would do it.

Given his 3-bet calling range as per OP, his range at the river includes A6, 76s too. A few more combos to factor in the math.

Hard to imagine QQ is good here. Hero's hand is pretty face up QQ+
QQ against River shove. Quote
11-15-2015 , 12:36 PM
Your turn bet is pot committing, so cawl. If you didn't want to play for stacks against this Villain in this spot then check behind on the turn and bluff catch or b/f river.
QQ against River shove. Quote

      
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