Quote:
Originally Posted by ohmyrage
In your quest to get max value with QQ on just about the worse board for QQ, we end up in this spot. I'm not a fan of stacking off 150bb at any point in this hand, this was a situation to pot control.
As played
With villain description The only bluff draw he can have is missed hearts, most missed straight draw combos probably have a pair in them as well and would want to get to showdown. I kind of like a fold here on river against described villain("he lacked ability to make tough folds") this player type tends to like showdowns, not tend to bluff. Especially not a 1/3 pot sized bet as a bluff.
His range by the river is likely has 88+ or AQ/AKhh
We beat TT/JJ/AQ/AK, and lose to 88/99/KK/AA
Yet I KIND of want to eliminate TT/JJ because I think those hands players tend to get a little more showdown happy with compared to AA/KK even though their relative hand strength is very similar. And the AQ/AKhh hands I think would tend towards a check/fold here because they don't feel they have enough to bluff the river with. It's definitely ballsy to shove the river after opponent limp raised preflop, bet flop and turn, and give your opponent huge odds to call with a bluff, but its definitely not 0% that villain would do it.
Given his 3-bet calling range as per OP, his range at the river includes A6, 76s too. A few more combos to factor in the math.
Hard to imagine QQ is good here. Hero's hand is pretty face up QQ+