I'm looking on thoughts from a hand last night, relatively loose and deep 1/3 game.

V is a good reg.
Hero is effective stack with $400.

Folds to V in CO, who opens to $15.
I have QhQc in the BB and 3-bet to $50.

Flop JcTd6c.

This board seems very draw-heavy, so I think I need to size up. I bet $100. V shoves.

Hero?

This seems very difficult because his range preflop probably includes all 3 sets, as well as JTs. On the other hand, there are a lot of available draws he could be shoving/semibluffing with.

Thoughts?

You are forgetting 2 other hands in the villains range..AA and KK.

If the V is a good reg as you say, he might not shove pre-flop. If he shoves pre-flop, you might just need to put him on AA or KK and shut down your action. If he calls your 3 bet, then he can set a trap to take all your stack.

Against AA,KK, JJ, 10-10, you are dead meat. Another possibility is a hand like A-Kc and he's slightly ahead on the flop. Basically you are a dog to anything in his range and you need to fold.

Totally agree this is a very rough spot. Any reads on his opening range in late position? Have to figure a good reg opens fairly wide in late position. Flatting the $50 c-bet should theoretically narrow his/her range but agree with other poster that we can't rule out AA and KK. AK, A_J/10, as well as K_J/10 would seem to be more likely than AA and KK, but including JJ, 1010, 66, and J10 too makes this likely to be weighted more to either being way behind or close to flipping vs being solidly ahead. Without going through all the combos, and without live reads, this is a sigh fold

Its actually not a rough spot at all. Its a bad flop but not a rough spot. Hero bet too much on the flop and beats virtually nothing now. AcKc is the only reasonable hand a "good reg" can have and play that way that we would be correct to call. This is a very easy fold.

I really don't like the pot sized bet otf but without knowing what your image is to the villain and if he knows you're capable of 3betting wider from OOP than with premium hands only this hand can go either way based on that and other reads. If he's seen you 3bet wider especially from OOP I would stack off here a lot easier. If you're unknown to him I would fold since your bet looks exactly like AA or KK and if he's really a "good reg", he's probably not flatting with KQ or a suited ace or suited clubs pre.

If you’re going to pot this flop you’ve got to call it off.

Overpair + 3 card straight + 3 card flush should be more than enough to get you above the 31% you need. If he’s ever taking this line with A5, KQ or 98 type hands then it’s a no brainer snap.

You’ve got 17% vs. his sets alone.

A player described as pretty good is calling a $50 3 bet pre-flop with ace-rag suited?

“Pretty good” is a meaningless read.

OP needs to assess villain’s continuing range.

If it’s exacrly TT+ then it’s a fold. If it’s wider then it’s a call.

Flop sizing is WAY too big in a HU 3! pot, especially on this board. Bet-fold is okay, but for 1/2 pot, not full pot. Given your flop sizing there may be an argument for calling it off now, but I think it makes it much clearer that you're beat and should fold.

Your bet screams of an OP, you have the smallest OP, and V rips it on you in a spot where he should expect to have little to no FE. I think best case scenario is a big draw with overs, which is about even money. The rest of his range should be mostly comprised of 10s+ which has you crushed. I also think holding the Qc is a very relevant blocker here, and in a bad way, as there's less combos of potential draws he could have.

I should add that both V and I play very aggressively and I expect him to flat my 3-bet with nearly his entire opening range. He likes to stack me and play back at me, plus my 3-bet range is definitely wider than QQ+.

Giving him a range of exclusively TT+ is definitely very inaccurate. He usually will call my 3-bet with A8s+, 78s+, 66+.

Even after OPs ridiculously large flop bet, he still needs 31% equity to call the all in. Id love to see you come up with enough "realistic" hands to come up with a range that we have more than 31% equity against.

Then hes not a "good reg". You cant just throw this new info at us after we all commented. Thread is useless now.

Yes, possibly. If he opens 25% of hands, he could reasonably fold half to a 3-bet and arrive on the flop with something like: 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+

One could argue about the exact composition but that would involve you posting your thoughts. Using that as his range this is a better flop than average for our hand.

We're basically left with the universal issue that shows up in poker threads. The dollars behind is less than a PSB. Is Villain's betting range dramatically different than then their calling range, and how SCARY is that?

Regarding the comments. I think generally if we fold every hand where the Villain might have aces or top set, we'll be doing more folding than is optimal.

relatively loose and deep 1/3 game? yea call it off then if you think he has a good amount of semi bluffs in his range, you got decent equity against 2pair so only have to worry about the 9 combos of sets

Quick fold.

The only hand we really beat is a flush draw, or KQ, and we block KQ.

Also size up pre. I like $60.
Also size down a little on the flop, I like 80% of pot.

Umm I already did?

No, you came up with an unrealistic and overly optimistic range to justify a bad call...which is what bad players do. Then they complain about variance and getting coolered all the time.

lol okay mike.. oh by the way

OP said villain was a good player. Good players dont have the range you listed. Your range was based on OPs read. OP changed his stated read later which makes this entire thread completely useless.

keep thinking that way mikey..

there was no read given. "pretty good reg" is not a read.

maybe try analyzing the spot for what it is for once. i know that's hard for you because ranging isn't your thing and you play in games where nobody ever raises without the nuts, but you might improve as a player if you tried.