1/2, $300 effective, V is a tight-ish girl in BB

H raises $10 w/QQ UTG,
2 calls,
V raises to $30,
H calls, 1 other call.

Flop ($100): T77sdc
Checks through

Turn ($100): Ts
V bets $20, H calls, fold

River ($140): 9h
V bets $60, H ??

It seems optimistic to think V continues betting Ax OTR into 2 people. Moreover, she could have likely gotten tricky with KK, AA on this flop. What do we do?

Going back to pre, I think you're guaranteeing 4-handed when you flat the $30, plus you're OOP to two of them. I like a 4b here and you can even considering making it a 4b/fold (nitty, yes) if you really think this chick would only 5b the nuts, as most 1/2 players would only do. I don't think I've ever been 5b at 1/2 or 1/3 without seeing KK or AA. I would pop it up to at least $75-80.

As played, you're getting over 3:1 to call, but that feels like a value bet, not to mention she could still be playing higher overs than you. I think you have to find a fold considering you flatted the turn and she still barreled the river OOP.

Ya my default is to just flat 3bets pre with QQ- live because people 3b only QQ+/AK at these stakes so much. Plus me being UTG makes her 3b range even stronger.

Maybe I should start 4b-small/folding in these spots? Think I like $65-70 more instead of $75-80 though?

You're in a tricky spot because you're turning the hand into a set mine and putting yourself in tough spots. I don't know that 4b/fold is correct either, it's really table/villain dependent.

You can probably get AA/KK in for stacks on a set mine regardless and you're getting odds for it based on the effective stacks so I don't think a flat is a bad play at all. I think there's merits to both plays. I don't think you should change what you do. You're right in the sense that on some tables I only see 3b from passive Vs being AA/KK and never anything less.

I mean I’m not 100% setmining, like in this case, when she checks flop, I figured she could have AK/AQ a lot. Maybe I should have just bet out the flop after she checks.

Pre is meh but 4b/f is even more meh than flatting. Sometimes all options suck i guess.
I probably bet small on the flop and checkback turn, but AP it's totally reasonable as well.

Shove river if V is capable of folding KK+. Otherwise fold imo.

Villain's line, with the relatively modest sizing, could well be JJ.

The flop checked through (we should have bet the flop for 75-80 or so).

A Villain with AK would have been happy with the check through.

We should call the river, we should be good here many times, enough to justify the call.

You really think V is betting JJ on a double-paired board after hero flats the turn? I just don't know how many 1/2 players are betting JJ for thin value against A-high.

Why so big? $45 would be enough to fold out AK IMO. If we bet $75-80, we are only getting called by JJ/KK/AA (range being more weighted towards the latter). Plus we’re committing ourselves.

Exactly, and there’s one player behind too.

Been thinking on this hand for a while and i have landed ( once again) that this is KK/AA like all the time, and that we should make an exploitative fold. I am not shure if villain have AQ/AK in 3 bet range to begin with, that is not written in stones. And i for sure doubt that a tight villain is going to start barrelling off turn/rivers with A high in a bloated 3 bet pot OOP.

I know what many people are thinking: it sucks that our villains are playing this faceup that we have to fold QQ here and be quite certain that its correct. But that is the reality at many 1/2 tables. (even 2/5 as well for that matter). Ranges from a general standpoint is incredibly tight, and especially the bettingrange on the river after getting 2 calls on the turn. If this was a villain anywhere near capable of thinly valuebetting JJ targeting A high non believers you would know it for sure before the hand. Hint hint: your description of villain woudnt be "tightish girl in the BB".

This is where you quietly sigh folds river and doesent show anybody. And pat yourself on the back for printing money by being able to range villains absolutely spot on and having the discipline to make the fold.

Well how tightish? If she hasn’t raised at all and has be playing a couple hours, sure she could have AA/KK. Otherwise I think AK is a real possibility here. If V has AA/KK (or even JJ) there has to be a Cbet on flop (unless V has been known to play passive post flop). How betting went I could see V checking flop with AK...checks around. Turn boards two pairs...no one showed any strength or took command on flop, V could be thinking her Ace kicker is good and value bets the turn/river. You leading out UTG removes likelihood of any 10x 7x holdings on your end and she may not put you on pockets since you checked on the flop and just called the turn.

Honestly, how betting went I think it’s AK (though I wouldn’t be surprised if she had 1010...turn/river bets make sense then). Maybe heads up she would get a little tricky with AA/KK, but with a third person in, I’m doubting she would do that (esp. with KK). I’d say signs point to you being ahead and would raise the V


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She later told me it was a good fold with the QQ. Not sure if serious.

That’s what they all say


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Needs to be a 4 bet pre. As played though, just fold.

And then what? Lose to AA/KK and get AK to fold?

Not really. You put in an additional 45 bucks or whatever and ensure position in a heads up pot.

If she shoves you fold.

People seem to think there is something wrong with raise/folding a value hand...mostly bc of literature baluga wrote a decade ago (which was very good), but there's nothing wrong with it if when you raise you get called by worse and jammed on by exactly AA (which is the only 5 bet hand you will see in live poker)

It makes this spot much easier to play. We really dont want 2 lp callers. Thats worse than click/folding.

Then you find out where you're at. If she shoves, you can get away from it. If she flats, it's probably AK or a lower hand.

I agree with this. That's why I felt like flatting QQ pre-flop in this case was turning it into a set mine, barring a great flop like 3/3/4 rainbow. I think the OP had enough players in this hand, and enough money behind on those players (particularly the villian), in which QQ set mining was still profitable anyway. Would I do it? Probably not, because I like to run passive players over, but not everyone plays the same style I do. I can defend not 4betting here sometimes though, because if this V never 3bets (rarely do I see a lot of passive Vs 3bet JJ either by the way, it's usually AA/KK/AKs), then you might actually be blowing yourself off of your set-mining equity here by 4betting as well. So while I lean towards a 4bet, I think I'd have to feel comfortable that V's 3bet isn't polarized to AA/KK here.

I've rarely seen a 4bet that wasn't KK/AA, and I've definitely never seen a 5bet that wasn't KK/AA. I think anyone who says 4b/f is bad isn't playing enough live 1/2 or 1/3. Most of the players at 1/2 and 1/3 are there because it's the limit for their bankroll (and often it's still too high for their bankroll). Hell, even in 2/5 I don't think I've ever seen a 5b that wasn't AA or KK.

I've 3b/f QQ twice in the last 12 months and was right both times. It's definitely completely villain dependent but these were both super tight nits that NEVER 3b, much less 4b. To call I'd basically have to see these villains 4-betting anything other than AA or KK at least 20% of the time and that's not even remotely close to the case in live lowest-limit NL. I can only recall 1 time in the last few years in which a 4b wasn't AA or KK (in a cash game, not a tournament) and it was AKs.

Is it just me or does the V’s post flop play seem odd? 3bet pre, checks flop, 20/100 pot on turn, 60/140 on river (flop/turn in particular). Doesn’t seem like how a typical tight person would play AA/KK


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