Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8
The thing that I find interesting about this hand is that people are talking like I was trying to punt off my stack here. But I was only at 95bb to start the hand and flipped tptk.
In a certain way x/jam turn here is almost a safer line than the b/b turn big/b river line that is the common consensus here.
If he has set here and I bet turn big/call raise, I lose my stack.
If I bet turn big and he calls, then a heart/river hits, or any of the OESD cards I’m guessing on the river and I hate folding at that point.
The x/jam play OTT is pretty aggressive, but about half the deck is bad for me OTR.
Anyway, if I was wrong and lose 95bb? It happens. I reload.
So I realize your next post said you're over it, and I'm not trying to beat a dead horse here, but I think the thing you're saying in this post is worth continuing to discuss (and is incongruent).
Both x/jam and b/b/b are going to lose the whole stack to a set (if you bet turn 130, you're going to leave like 260 to play in a pot that's going to be around 420 on the river). If you range your tough opponent on Qx, hearts, spades, maybe 99-JJ, sets, then if you're sure they're going to bet their whole range, I don't think x/jam is bad.
I think your winning TAG reg V should've checked behind here with a lot of his non-set holdings, which on the upside when a complete brick offsuit 2 rolls off, you're happy with the pot size you can now play with a $100 b/f. On the downside, there is 17 flush completing cards, and six other cards that do not complete a flush but do complete a 4-straight (the 7s being the worst of these since I think 99 is the easiest hand for V to make a straight with, but I think they're all dangerous since 77 may have peeled this particular flop as well). So more than half the deck is bad for you and you're offering to V to see it for free -- it's just not an offer you should make lightly, but you say later that you felt confident this V was betting here, so okay, fine, x/jam against his range and I think the math says that's good (in the immediate spot you managed to trap $80 and V made a marginally bad fold, so fundamental theorem you came out ahead here).
I think if you zoom out, though, and even incorporating meta-benefits of having a CRAI in your playbook, the risk of the turn checking through, plus the meta-effects of having a 2/3-barrel TPTK in your range should compensate and make me lean towards a barrel in this spot. You're dead to a set regardless of whether you CRAI or bet/call or whatever. If you want to be not-dead to a set then I guess check/call then check/fold the river, but that seems weaksauce to me and a good way to get run over.
The general thing I'm trying to get at though, is if your opponent ever checks any of the non-sets here, but always bets the set, this CRAI seems worse to me than bet $130/bet $275 AI on river. Your goose is cooked either way against the set if you've decided to get AI on this turn, so might as well benefit from the average middle aged live player calling too much and betting too little.
