The playing tight read is kind of meaningless without context. Is he tight preflop? Tight postflop? Has he just been completely card dead? Knowing he’s capable of bluffing draws is the more relevant info.

the bet is only 16, if we raise to 40 we are pricing our hand correctly and that's all that really matters, if we don't raise then where is your value coming from when you crush this board?

his bet sizing is a mistake because it's giving us way too much information about the hand, there are a lot of reasons flatting the small bet on the turn is a mistake with most of the hands you actually have here

like i guess we could have 46 i suppose and just let him hand us the odds but how often do you have that hand or better yet, how often is he going to believe you have that hand? This is probably the nut worst hand we raise with or even continue with, so we can control the river odds by raising the turn to a normal bet size

we don't have to put a single dollar more into the pot after that, it's just important to get the value out of the hand, it's pretty hard to hit top pair and it's worth more than 16 bux

that being said, re-raise pre, QJs is a stone cold monster vs a 50% open

I'm just profiling him based on average tight young kids.
Kinda need more info on that hand but I doubt it involved donk leading into 3 other players with a draw, and was more likely a HU spot as the aggressor.

Sure call flop + turn with decent odds but raising turn seems spew since he shows up with KQ AQ Q9s? sets, only real worse Q is QTs maybe Q8s??
Even if he can show up with FDs then I'm still not behind a raise since we have one of our worst holdings in this spot.

River I think we should just fold even with good price, he can still have a combo Axhh draw which spiked an Ace and is value betting, as well as all the previous hands mentioned, but I don't think the lower end always bets. Sure we should bluff this river sometimes but I don't think I'd choose this hand, instead maybe some of our FD's that way we don't block as many of his middling Q hands which can fold.

I like a 3b pre against a loose type, and a caller from the blinds. You have position on both and you are likely ahead of both ranges, as V2 could have some of the weaker suited connectors/ middling smaller pocket pairs. While some of those hands are somewhat ahead they have much less playability post.

As played, I think calling down would be fine. Tight V2 is only calling with better so why raise turn? If you ARE gonna raise I would say flop is better. Although on this board there are not a whole lot of bluffs, if you get called the range leans heavily towards value.

And finally, your getting too good a price to fold. I suggest calling down.

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I wouldn't be surprised if he showed up with any Qxs for the price getting nearly 4:1, especially at a 1/2 game where BB is likely to call and very unlikely to squeeze.

Either way, "beyond spew" felt like just a bit of an embellishment. Calling KQo from the SB is a garbage play either way. Guy should have 3bet it (or folded).

Freeze raise turn.
As played call river

Bump up his bet sizing to 1/2 PSB+ on each street and how many of us are correctly bailing early?

Git'snotnearlyasbadasyouthinkitis,imoG

I'm definitely not going to fight to the death on this, and it is definitely nitty, but there is absolutely no way it is a large mistake to fold preflop with 2 others behind us that can still have position on us plus very few of our draws will be nutmaking.

I would never say it is a large mistake to call here. But it isn't a large mistake to fold either. It's likely mostly table dependent (who we have behind us and in the blinds) to be slightly -EV vs slightly +EV.

GcluelessNLnoobG

It's amazing to me gobbledygeek is still allowed to post.

This. And at least consider 3! pre to lose the button.

Yeah only because we allowed it to happen. If we raise the turn and bomb the river like we should have, he folds meekly a high % of the time.

in one sense you are right, in another sense you are wrong

i think your argument makes a lot of sense but it kind of does not matter what his range is precisely in this hand, it just matters for all the hands

i think if you aren't putting some more money in it will be virtually impossible for you to have a bluff range and that's kind of half the battle here

this is what i expect to happen: I raise turn to 40 villain flats, checks the river to me and i check and we showdown

when he shows KQ i feel like I am the one who won the hand

in a vacuum your argument is perfect, in a meta game context it's flawed, i can't really explain exactly why but we should be raising here with every hand we continue with OTT, including pure air, otherwise i think we should just fold the turn as this is not a board changing card and his range is already exactly face up

so it's either call turn + call river, raise turn check back, or just fold turn imho

I would be flatting and snap calling the river trying to get to showdown cheap instead of inflating the pot. If he bet a little higher otr I would even fold.

So now our plan is to turn TP into a bluff?

GcluelessNLnoobG

It's pretty easy to get to the river with hands that don't have any showdown value given the sizing. They can potentially be used to bluff.

At what point of him raking the larger pot in his direction do you feel this?

His river bet range may not be the same as his turn bet range. E.g. He could be betting QT/QJ OTT but checking them on the river. Calling turn doesn't mean we need to call river.

Sometimes yes. I will let you figure out why this can be a good play.

I think we do have to call given pot odds. FWIW I feel like he could be doing this sizing with a hand like 77, which we don't want to shut out on the turn with a raise. I pretty much see this hand as a cooler and I'm going to be probably losing 4 more big blinds than OP did in this hand, also feel like this could be much worse if V had actually bet his hand strength

Honestly think we should raise this sizing with our entire continue range. It's a very interesting hand tho. In a vaccuum, you guys are right. His range beats us on the river, and possibly even the turn, but when we raise we force him to play a wider range against us. It's kind of the difference between playing this hand for this hand or playing this hand for all the hands you ever have (range). It just makes us so much harder to play against when we are able to raise the turn here

also think pre might be a mistake, we should almost always be 3betting a 50% open with QJs

3b pre especially with super nit image.

QJ is a muck here preflop sorry

As played the Donk bet into the field is usually a Qxs type hand that called for pot odds pre and doesn’t want the flop to check through to the turn

He wants to fold out the field with his bet.
He gets hu with you on the turn and bets weakly again cause he still has top pr weak kicker

Call turn bet great here

River A does nothing to improve his range unless he plays Axhh draws this way sinking into an entire field on the flop oop? Most likely not unless proven otherwise from history

Insta call on river and drag pot from a Q8s hand type imo

Yep