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Q10 with big draw vs overpair Q10 with big draw vs overpair

04-12-2013 , 08:51 PM
1-2. Hero is loose pre, agressive and solid post. Villain is ABC, re-raises a lot with top pair. Overpairs are the nuts. Hero has $275, Villain covers.

Three limps, Hero limps in cuttoff with Q10c. Villain on Button bumps to $13. BB, and three limpers all call. Hero calls.

Flop 9c7h6c. Checks to Hero, who leads $25. Villain raises to $75. Folds back to Hero.

What do we do here? Not so sure about our fold equity against this Villain (who definitely has AA or KK), and hate to stick it all in in a high-variance spot when I have a big edge in the game.

Thoughts? Any reason for a call, then a stop-n-go Turn shove to make him believe I have a set? Or should I just shove the flop and try to run it twice?
Q10 with big draw vs overpair Quote
04-12-2013 , 08:55 PM
Straight and flush draw? Too many outs syndrome, ship
Q10 with big draw vs overpair Quote
04-12-2013 , 09:07 PM
You can shove flop. Prolly most +ev

Safer on bankroll is call flop and raise turn if you hit.
Where do all you play that allow you to run it twice? We don't even allow it in our home game. Slows down game too much
Q10 with big draw vs overpair Quote
04-12-2013 , 09:21 PM
Local charity room allows it if pot gets over $300. You see it often when big made hands go up against big draws.

If you care…

Spoiler:
I decide to call flop and evaluate turn. Turn is a Q. We get it all in, him calling it off with AcAs. I get him to run it twice, and I miss 19 outs twice. GG me
Q10 with big draw vs overpair Quote
04-12-2013 , 10:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BabyDutch
1-2. Hero is loose pre, agressive and solid post.
Quote:
Three limps, Hero limps in cuttoff with Q10c.
Does not compute, you should have raised pre yourself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BabyDutch
1-2. Hero is loose pre, agressive and solid post.
Hero bets $25 into a $65 pot with a monster draw. That doesn't sound very aggressive to me unless you were hoping someone would raise so you could shove flop, which makes your next move obvious. I would have bet $50 on flop and shoved over any raise personally.

Why do you assume V can only have KK/AA when he makes a relatively small raise from the button? His preflop range is probably more like any PP, 67s+, TJ+ and his postflop range probably looks more like this:

Board: 9c 6c 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.633% 42.88% 00.75% 21651 379.50 { QcTc }
Hand 1: 56.367% 55.61% 00.75% 28080 379.50 { KK+, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, JJ, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 99-66, AcKc, AcJc, Ac9c, KcJc, T8s, 98s, 87s }


Since you have some FE here I would just shove flop.
Q10 with big draw vs overpair Quote

      
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