Playing 1/2 NL 9-handed at Parx. At table for one hour now . No history with any players.

I have so far represented a LAG-ish table image. I have shown down no hands yet except for one earlier against villain. I have $350.

(In the hand with the villain, I had QQ and he called me down on all three streets with AK on a TT884 board, called $10 on flop, $20 on turn and $60 on riv.)

Hero in HJ with $350. Villain is UTG+1 with $600. He is abt 60 yrs old, gets up to smoke a lot, and has an erratic and loose-ish image.

My hand: AKs

UTG raises to $7. Villain calls. Hero raises to $30. BTN calls, UTG calls, villain calls.

Flop Kh Qh 5d.

UTG checks.

Villain donk bets $115. Action on Hero.

Hero surveys the scene. BTN and UTG appear to have lost interest in the hand.

HERO ???

I feel like this is A5hh, AJhh, AThh, JThh, J9hh, T9hh or 55. He is trying to play for stacks so he is more likely than not betting an amount to where he is priced in with his draw...or its 55.

If you like variance then jam. I'd probably jam.

With that strong of a bet OTF, I don't see V holding any of those hands except maybe 55. While it's quite possible for him to have AJhh, AThh, JThh, etc..., I don't see him making a pot sized bet with those hands. I feel he would make a half pot to 2/3 pot size bet OTF with those hands looking to jam on any raise against him. His bet tells me he wants everyone to go away (KQ, QJ, QT, KJ, KT, K9, Q9, 55).

Either way though, I agree with fitz's decision. Shove.

Without more info, I'd fold first time to this. I'm not paying this guy off w a one pair hand in a multi-way pot. You have $30 invested, you're gonna give him $320 more? Is he ever doing this w KJ or less here? I don't think so. If he calls, best case is a combo draw, otherwise we are facing 2 pr+. I would adjust and call this in the future based on additional history.

The board hits your range pretty hard and he led into you with a large bet (in a multi-way pot no less). Find a better spot.

You mean KQ right? Thanks.

Considering this board hits your 3bet range, I'm surprised he donks so much here. Call me a nit but I think flop is a fold. Is he really doing this with KT, KJ? You might be chopping with AK some of the time. But this is QQ, KQ, 55 a lot. And when it's Combo draws (5xhh, AJhh, AThh, etc) you are flipping basically. I'd lean toward fold but its a tough spot for sure. I wouldn't mind flat on flop fold turn to aggression if he's the type to slow down on turn with draws and top pair

No he means exactly what he said. KQ has you beat on flop.
Worst case scenario if you fold, you're giving up a small edge. Best case scenario, if you fold, his range crushes you. I would offer to pay him after the hand to see what he had. You don't know enough to stack off here. And yes that means AA is a fold too

+1 with everything said here. Highly weighing villain's hand towards KQ and 55...think QQ would've 3 bet but never 100% sure. Given stack sizes though...think I'd feel like a nit and find a fold. If we were deeper then could build a stronger case for flatting and see how turn plays out.

Has villain ever donk bet before? Used full pot sized bets? What did each of these mean?

I find a easy fold in this spot honestly until you have better reads on V.

I used KJ as an example because you have TPTK, and KJ would be next best hand that you beat. Point is, I don't think he'd lead into you for such a strong bet in a multi-way pot with a hand that you have crushed. You're either close to even vs. a combo draw or way behind vs. KQ/55.

This looks so much like KQ or QQ. Maybe 55. He might have also decided to just call the 3-bet w/ AA knowing he was getting it in regardless. Heck, he could have KK and put H on AK, AA or QQ thinking H will never fold. Without more info, this is a fold for me. Flop smacks H's range and V doesn't care -- not good.

i fold given that i don't want to play for stacks here but i think it's A LOT closer than it appears. everyone is putting far too tight of a range on villain given these reads.

We have him as a loose erratic player who was willing to call us all the way down with just A high before. everyone's giving him credit for being a thinking player which without confirmation is not definitely true. I've seen tons of players call down with just AK because "AK is a good starting hand so i just couldn't fold." Yes he can have KQ, QQ, 55 etc, but without further reads i think we still have to consider KJ, KT, K9 etc here. or even just a spaz bluff.

Like i said i still fold here being willing to assume we're the better player and can find a better spot later

I feel like most players will go for a check/raise with KK, QQ, KQ, and 55, since hero is on the button and flop should have hit hero's 3betting range and a Cbet is almost definitely in order. Based on stack sizes if villain has a 2pr+ type hand a check/raise makes more sense for V since it will be much easier to play for stacks and villain might scare away his customers with a pot sized donk bet, since it looks so strong.
I don't think villain is nutted up here since he would go for a check/raise if he was.
It looks like a scared medium strength hand that has potential to improve on later streets and that he is willing to go with OTF if Hero raises all in but he probably would like everyone to fold OTF.

That said, I lean towards a shove since I think he has 2pr+ less often here and I am a small favorite to his 1pr + draw and combo draw hands. As well he can show up with the occasional random hand that I am way ahead of

i hear what you are saying, but villain is old and old live players do silly things. like full pot the nut part of their range here (sometimes).

this is a pretty annoying spot. i assume he never folds and you need ~42% to break even. he really just needs a lot of flush draws for you to be able to get it in i think.

its hard to know for sure, but i pretty much see getting it in here somewhere between slightly profitable and completely terrible. i would fold.

I'm not thrilled about getting 150+ big blinds in with one pair in a multi-way pot, but I think it's probably the right thing to do here.

Is it normal at this table to have four players seeing a flop in a 3-bet pot? That seems pretty crazy compared to most 1-2 games I've played in.

Interesting lead by Villain. In my experience, opponents tend to make donk bets that are LOL small. He bet 115 into 120, which demonstrates that he as at least some concept of pot size.

How deep are Button and UTG?

There is certainly a danger that you'll run into QQ here or maybe even KQ, but I think that's a little bit MUBS.

If Villain wants to gamble with his draw, then I guess he's getting his wish.

For what it's worth, I like his bet, depending on the other stack sizes. Way too many people go for check-raises and end up with a disaster. Even if he just has a draw, I like the fact that he is taking the initiative and applying some pressure.

for the people that want to get it in here, what % equity do you think hero actually has here? (compared to the 42% he needs)

i also assume you think villain is not folding. or at least not often enough to matter.

Hero is not the button.

I agree that this is a favorable spot for a check-raise, given the relative position. If Hero bets, the other two players will have a chance to put money in the pot before Villain blasts it. However, since it was a 3-bet pot, there is already a ton of money in there. Going for a check-raise and having the flop check through could be a disaster for Villain.

Again, I think stack sizes for UTG and Button would be very helpful here.

A lot of people are making a good point about being slightly ahead vs. way behind. For that reason, I wouldn't hate a fold. I'm still slightly leaning toward a shove (even a hint of fold equity helps), but I'm fine with either play.

UTG had about $180. BTN had about $250.

For those of you putting KQ and KK in his range:

Wouldn't it be odd for him to have KQ since he would need to call $30 into a raiser where most of my range (AA, KK, QQ, AK) is a disaster for KQ?

And for those who are including KK, do you really see him flatting the $7 from UTG and flatting AGAIN from OOP after I make it $30 AND after BTN calls AND UTG calls the $30?

For some reason I thought he was pre-flop raiser. I think KQ is very likely. People love that hand. They don't realized how dominated they are. It's just so pretty. I'm thinking AK, KQ, QQ (less likely, but I've seen it) or 55. Either that or he has a big combo draw and just wants to get it in. Up to you what to do, but I can fold one pair here. You still have the button behind you, too.

BTW, I know quite a few players who would have called down in the AK hand. What happened pre-flop in that hand, anyway -- especially with it only being $10 on the flop?

He does not call twice with QQ or KK, he has to put in the raise PF with those hands

Which makes this a shove more often since we can eliminate some of the hands we are a huge dog too

Oh that was a funny hand, I raised, he reraised to $25 and I flat called and we were HU. There was $70 or so in the pot and he strangely checked it to me on a TT8 flop so I threw $10 in just to see how he'd react.

plz show your maths.