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Purely Math EV Problem Purely Math EV Problem

11-04-2016 , 01:32 PM
Quick summary:
1/2. I straddle button. UTG makes it $25. I'm ready to fold but there are 4 callers and I see TJhh. Table is deepish (150bb in many seats) so I call.

Flop $150

AsKsQh: UTG raiser checks. HJ Makes it $150 (with $150 behind). CO Goes all-in for $350. I have both slightly covered. I see HJ ready to call. Rest of players look ready to fold.

What cards would CO and HJ need to have to not call here if any.

Spoiler:
HJ had AK, CO had TsJs. After stoving it, if I knew these hands I think it's a mistake to call.
Purely Math EV Problem Quote
11-04-2016 , 01:50 PM
You have the nuts and should never ever fold here. Obviously you just got unlucky and ran into the worst hand(s) you could see in this spot.

In theory, yes, if you could see their hands this would be a fold. See below for the math (I'm assuming everyone has $350 since you didn't give everyones' stack sizes)

With JThh vs JTss & AK on this board we have 25.3% equity
Assuming HJ always calls we are putting in $350 to win $150+$350+$350 for a total pot size of $1200
350/1200 = 29.16% equity which is what we need to call (and don't have).

The worst case scenario would be if we were up against JTss and a set, which we would only have 21.11% equity.

But we are always in good shape unless one of the players has EXACTLY JTss. Even when we are up against JT & AA, we have 31.45% equity and obviously vs their entire ranges, there are many situations where we have much more equity (both players have sets, 2p, etc).

Obviously simplifying their ranges here but:

Board: AsKsQh
{JhTh}: 56.66%
{AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, KQ, JT}: 21.67%
{AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, KQ, JT}: 21.67%

just to show how we are doing vs a range of hands on this board
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11-04-2016 , 01:55 PM
This is a fringe situation on the flop, but more important is why you are calling preflop. I'd want to be much deeper than this before this even approached being a call. The preflop call looks terrible.
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11-04-2016 , 01:58 PM
I don't see anything wrong with the call pre after 5 people already in the pot.

I lost a hand like this a little while back, we got it in otf, and he had the re-draw which won, and I lost 2500. next hand.

anyway, ibl.
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11-04-2016 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
This is a fringe situation on the flop, but more important is why you are calling preflop. I'd want to be much deeper than this before this even approached being a call. The preflop call looks terrible.
I don't think pre is terrible either. We are getting 6:1 direct, closing the action and will be in position on the field with JTs, and have another ~17-20:1 behind in implieds (depending on what effective stacks actually are) vs multiple opponents.
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11-04-2016 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
This is a fringe situation on the flop, but more important is why you are calling preflop. I'd want to be much deeper than this before this even approached being a call. The preflop call looks terrible.
Seems like a pretty standard call pre. There's already $105 in the pot, we're getting almost 5:1 immediate odds, closing the action, with a pot size that makes it pretty easy to get the remaining $275 in if you want and one of the best speculative hand multiway.
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11-04-2016 , 02:06 PM
Thanks Dizzy. That's what I came up with as well. Obviously as played w/o seeing cards it's a snap call/all-in. I was just making sure my math was right when I ran the numbers and showed it was a -EV call, even if slightly. It didn't seem possible on the face of it. Even when the cards were flipped I thought it was a good call.

As for pre, given a lot of the non-interesting players in this hand were also semi-deepish, I thought a call was appropriate.
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11-04-2016 , 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211
Seems like a pretty standard call pre. There's already $105 in the pot, we're getting almost 5:1 immediate odds, closing the action, with a pot size that makes it pretty easy to get the remaining $275 in if you want and one of the best speculative hand multiway.
There's also actually even more in the pot since there are 4 callers + the original raiser (I made the same mistake you did at first too lol)
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11-04-2016 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp
There's also actually even more in the pot since there are 4 callers + the original raiser (I made the same mistake you did at first too lol)
You're right. I was making a different mistake in that we're calling $20 so I multiplied $20*5 and added our dead $5, without realizing that everyone was calling $25 rather than $20.

Either way this is a snap call for me. In fact if we think the original raiser can be light here it's a beautiful squeeze/shove spot hoping to pick up $130 without showdown, though doesn't work if UTG has a tight range. Everyone else is capped and unlikely to have a hand they want to put $300 in pre.
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