If he did raise flop with 99/1010 i doubt he’d continue barreling ott at any decent freq.

But if you seriously have this read, would have been nice to leave in the thread haha

@OP this hand was a vanessa selbst punt

@Minatorr i think youre a good player but i think you are being pretty naive to think you have some solid grasp on LLSNL just by reading these forums. games vary room to room, day to day, etc. game flow, dynamics, etc. also people, in general, select a specific subset of HH from their live games. so if your live experience = these forums, you are exposed to a biased set of HH. and yes you can infer certain things (i.e. fold pre, play tight, etc) but it does not come close to the inferences/information you gather playing 1000s of hours live

also i think flop raise call is more -EV than 3b 74s pre. though i think both are no good.

I wouldnt say it’s solid, but it’s more than enough to make me a decent winner at 1/3, 2/5. Im sure i can at least somewhat +EV in higher games, would just need to get used to gameflow but even if i got placed in a 5/10 game right now i’d at minimum be winning a few bb/hr, obv not crushing until i get used to live over a large sample size.

Yeah sure there are biases but once you see so many (say thousands) the biases on average should level out at some point, and i should have a good enough grasp on gameflow based on seeing so many thought processes, postflop being played out, and sometimes results. When I played my first sessions at 21 a few months ago, it was by far the easiest session of my life wrt poker. It was even easier than i expected and basically exactly when i read on the forums. It was not much different, except the fact that i was surprised by the amount of lack of 3betting (which i already knew but it feels even less in-person). And as i commented earlier, you guys act like online and live are like not even the same game. They are still the same game. Just some adjustments need to be made switching, obv live to online transition is a lot harder. I am hoping to put in a lot of hours into live sometime before this summer ends after roaming these forums for so long, should go well im certain unless i hit terrible negative variance. Maybe you’ll see my PG&C thread

“Games vary room to room, day to day, gameflow, dyanmics” So are you suggesting players/whales/fish/gameflow/dynamics dont vary day to day or room to room online? In the end, they’re all still people. Within a few orbits, i can tell who are the fish, the regs, their pre tendencies, their post tendencies, who are the marks/whales, etc. they’re seriously not as different as people make them out to be. Just adjustments need to be made

Can you show a pokerstove range where we have so little equity that it’s so -EV to call getting 4.5 to 1 that you can assert that 3-betting pre with 7 high is way more +EV than flatting this flop raise? Unless someone can show one, and show one where it’s literally not 2.5 combos of sets and 1-3 combos of bluff/Qx/spaz total which you guys are implying, then i stand by my statement that calling the raise postflop and folding have similar EVs and shouldnt differ overwhelmingly.

And for that statement that calling the flop raise is far more -EV than the pre 3b to be true, you are basically saying we should be folding AA in this exact scenario as well because his range is THAT nutted. I am not saying that is terrible, but i guarantee if OP had said he had Aces here and wondered what he should do, almost everyone here would say call flop and take a turn. Guaranteed 100%

I have no reason to think you're not a good online player or that you are smart enough to adapt to live play once you start playing it....but you are talking nonsense in these quotes. They are total contradictions.

I do appreciate your advice and I do use advice like it when my opponent is an obvious online player. All Im saying is that if you play like this or use this mindset in live play you will get destroyed. I see the young guys with obvious technical skills from playing online come thru town and get wiped out and leave all the time. It happens over and over again.

OP is now saying that this villain does make some tricky plays but none of that was given in the OP. Even so, Im still not calling a small flop raise with middle pair in a 3 bet pot. Save that stuff for when you are in position.

If this villain is that tricky, we shouldnt be 3 betting him OOP with this trash and putting ourselves in impossible spots like this.

OP, if you want responses to incorporate a very specific live read that this villain is an outlier capable of incorporating blockers, bluffing flops and pressuring your mostly capped AQ+ one pair range you really need to include it in the initial post. That is what people are reading and basing there advice on.

Wrt Minatorr, I’m just going to take his word that calling or folding flop are similarly marginal +EV spots, but I think what sways the pendulum to a fold is our live poker exploitative adjustments. Like live players just suck. I think I’m a very good live player because of how bad everyone else is, but I very well may just be a tight ABC dude capable of spewing to an astute online reg. People are just so unbalanced in raising spots that you can ditch your weakest holdings/OOP hands because they just generally have it.

18 months ago or so I was just artificially creating super thin +EV spots by being way more aggro than necessary cuz “I only need 30% to call it off and I’ve got 35%” and after running terrible in those situations it made me question what in the hell I was doing. I still take some very high variance lines but they are way more tailored to real-time adjustments to reads formed over the last 5, 10 or 20 hands. Villain’s mindset and psychology right here and now rather than a general thesis of his overall style averaged out over many many sessions.

Poker is fickle and spontaneous. Your noteworthy hands are usually the result of one or more players deviating from their baseline “standard” decision in a seemingly innocuous pot. I find those pots and HH’s the most interesting where a minor adjustment based on a live read ends up altering the entire outcome of a hand that would normally have some typical boring outcome.

Kinda veered off topic but I’ve been grinding and dranking for 14 hours and needed a break after a “spewy” 4bet/call with A3s that ended up being ahead of Q7s for 100 bigs.

The lesson in this thread is that if you recognize a live player as "good" by llsnl standards, the best way to beat him is by bluffing. Look at all the mubs in this thread, I mean jesus. Throw in a false verbal tell or 2 and they're folding 90% of their range. They "don't care" because MOST villains aren't exploiting them enough for it to matter, which is true, but the 1 guy who is exploiting them is having an absolute field day.

Sure you can beat good live players by bluffing them. We all know bet/fold is the best line most of the time so when they get raised they have to fold.

Most live players dont bluff anywhere near enough so when you get raised, you should fold most of the time. But the reason most live players dont bluff enough is because most live players WONT fold enough.

When you find the 1 guy out of 100 that IS exploiting people, you either avoid him or go into more of an online or GTO type mindset and play real poker. That's just very very rare and you should have zero doubt who those players are.

Who cares if he's having a field day? If we know he's exploiting us fine we adjust but otherwise just hunting for the tiny fraction of players exploiting us is a bad idea. We end up making stupid plays because we are afraid of being exploited, and occasionally we are correct but overall looking for balanced strategies is just -EV when almost everyone is playing very unbalanced.

If somebody checkraises or 3 bets me repeatedly I start to look him up but this is just so so rare. And even when we see some random player raise us on the flop 3 times in two hours, is it more likely he's bluffing us or running good? Probably the latter. Only against regs do we really ever get enough information about who might be exploiting is. Vs the general population I'm just crediting people with whatever they're repping unless their line makes no sense.

As for your lesson bluffing "good" players is not always that simple. You may get away with it once or twice but then they start calling down light. I've also had many winning players just snap off my bluffs. Either they are just sticky with certain types of hands or they read the player and situation extremely well and know when to bluff catch. The best bluffing targets are tight passive recs and overly nitty regs. But I generally prefer bluffing recs because many are bad at hiding their reaction to various cards and have various timing and bet sizing tells that combine to tell me "you are cleared for a bluff, this player is folding"

I agree with Johnnybuz for the most part, just thank him for raising with a set and fold on the flop. I'm definitely not a fan of live pro's raise with 33 on 34Qr. It takes away too much rope from your bluffing range.

If I had a hand like AQ, KK, AA, I would probably call the raise and donk the turn. I think V checks back a lot to try to get to showdown with the mid pp, KQ, QJ type hands. If you're going to fight him in this spot I think donking the turn is better.

Good post.

Why defend with 74 SUITED against a BU raise by a TAG that knows H’s play well?

Just call me a nit I guess.

Definitely some spew here. I don't mind the odd light 3-bet, especially btn vs blinds, but this hand is just too weak. As played I like the flop c-bet and 1/3 sizing. I'm pretty tight/conservative in general, but can't see myself folding to villain's small flop raise. It's a very dry, rainbow board and he's repping exceptionally thin -- QQ likely 4-bets pre given positions, we block set of 4s, set of 3s should prob never be raising our c-bet here(it did, but that doesn't mean it's a good play or should be expected from most 'winning TAG' villains).

Given the price(we need 17% equity to continue) and the fact that our small c-bet sizing could induce a bluff/semi-bluff raise, I think we have to call with our middle pair + BDFD. If we were to assign villain a super tight range of only value, say 44, 33, and all combos of AQ, we have ~19% equity; add in just two combos of A5s(BD diamonds and hearts) and our equity rises to 24%. Also, I think once we call the flop raise most villain's will shut down any shenanigans and play more honestly, as our range can still include AA/KK and is much less likely to be whiffed AK's. As played turn is huge spew - just c/f.

yup, but you'll have to work a lot harder to exploit me than this spot, because i'm not light 3b you from BB with 74s

if you're a world class cash game player and you're to my left, yes you will have a field day. particularly if you're rolled. i will probably also seat change / pick up. gL

ya. there's so much money to be made, players good enough to exploit me are like black holes. i'll tangle here and there if i absolutely have to but mostly i'm staying the F away. tried and true bum hunter.

i enjoy the intellectual challenge of poker but not enough to ramp it up a few notches and momentarily sink my expectation to -2BB/hr.

Read a few responses, not the entire thread. Folding flop at 5 to 1 would be bad, cmon bros. Ridiculous.

so hero’s OOP 3 betting range is wider than Vs raising range. Yup this sounds like a typical 2/5 player.

(note to others, this is why cold 4 betting as a bluff is strong in 2/5)

Let's say we call at 4.8-1 odds. There are two 4s, three 7s, and nine spades that could help Hero; 14/47 or 2.4-1.

Question … doesn't playing this oop at least neutralize the odds differential? I realize Hero may be ahead, but also may be behind.

I want to comment on preflop a bit too. I respect the fact that you're looking for spots to 3bet pre and retake the initiative with a more LAG style of play, but:
1) Our sizing is way too small. I typically go 3.5x IP and 4x OOP. So against a $15 open, I'd go $50-$55 in position and $60 out of position.
2) We have better hands to bluff 3bet with, like {22+, 76s+, 86s+, A2s+}. We shouldn't be 3betting 74s at all. It might look like a playable hand on the surface, but when you really take a step back and examine how disconnected it is and how low the suits are, it's just not worth it.

Fwiw I have a 16% 3bet frequency preflop, which is extremely high, and even I wouldn't 3bet a hand worse than 76s or 86s.

Agreed.

OP cool punt. AP b-call flop. ck-c turn. ck river and consider calling a bet because you're likely doing far worse against his river checking range.

Does that mean you 3! 16% of all your hands live or that you 3! 16% of the time that you were going to raise anyway?

If he's using standard vpip/pfr/3bet I think it means when there is a raise and he has the opportunity to 3 bet he does it 16% of the time. I wouldn't try to emulate this strat...

He does this 6max but even then 16% is way too high, let alone for full-ring live

I feel like 6BM's posts should come with a disclaimer or something. I actually listened to some of his advice in a thread I made a while back, where oddly he was like the only player who liked my flop play. I've since realized that's a good indication I butchered that flop decision.

Yeah full ring 2/5 3-bet should be like 3 to 6 % depending on specific game but usually closer to 3. I probably average 4%.

This is ridculously loose and spewy. I don't see anyway this wins. I think 4-6% is about right in most games.

You don’t have to 3bet every hand in a range with 100% frequency. I’ve certainly 3bet every hand highlighted in that chart but some of them at very low frequencies only when the situation looked right.

6BM got the 16% from his actual stats though, which means he is actually 3 betting these 100% or these at some frequency and even worse hands at some frequency.