Hello!

I play online poker since 8 years and switched to live cash game since I saw that the skill level is much smaller compared to online poker.

I've noticed that players tend to call big open raises with worse hands then QQ+, AK even when they don't have the implied odds because of the effective stacks.
They even call big, limp/3-bets from early position with worse hands.

So I think it's a very easy and profitable way to make profit with this very tight but agrressive play.

And I was right, when I had QQ+, AK, I've had always the better hand, and in most of the time I could get him allin preflop. In the other cases i could get him allin on the flop where I also had the best hand.

The problem is that i've lost almost all of them.

Can somebody show how to calculate the probability of this occurance?

So here is the List of all allins. I have only won once with AA in between:

AA vs flopped straight

Board:


Equity Win Tie
MP3 20.66% 20.46% 0.20% 8d6d
BU 79.34% 79.14% 0.20% AdAh (Hero)


KK vs K7 all in preflop <10%

Board:


Equity Win Tie
MP3 7.26% 6.59% 0.67% Ks7d
BU 92.74% 92.08% 0.67% KhKc (Hero)



KK vs A6 3 outs turn river

Board:
jj9

Equity Win Tie
MP3 12.83% 12.83% 0.00% Ad6s
BU 87.17% 87.17% 0.00% KhKc (Hero)

AA vs 66 2 outs turn river

Board:
q83

Equity Win Tie
MP3 8.38% 8.38% 0.00% 6h6s
BU 91.62% 91.62% 0.00% AdAh (Hero)


QQ vs AK coinflip

Board:


Equity Win Tie
MP3 43.24% 43.03% 0.21% AdKh
BU 56.76% 56.55% 0.21% QdQs (Hero)


KK vs J9 4 outs turn river

Board:
kq8 rainbow

Equity Win Tie
MP3 13.74% 13.74% 0.00% Jd9h
BU 86.26% 86.26% 0.00% KdKh (Hero)

Flopped Flush:

Board:
AcQc8c

Equity Win Tie
MP2 2.66% 2.66% 0.00% AdKd
MP3 29.90% 29.90% 0.00% KcJh
BU 67.44% 67.44% 0.00% 7c6c (Hero)

AK vs Jx 5 outs turn river

Board:
aj8

Equity Win Tie
MP3 16.77% 16.77% 0.00% Jd6c
BU 83.23% 83.23% 0.00% AsKs (Hero)

Here I won once with AA, Villian mucked

QQ vs AJ:

Board:


Equity Win Tie
BU 28.53% 28.37% 0.16% AdJh
SB 71.47% 71.31% 0.16% QsQc (Hero)


So I've lost 8 of 9 times in a row as the favorite.

Do I have only multiply the odds of losing? For example:

0.2066 * 0.0726 * 0.1283 * 0.0838 * 0.4324 * 0.1374 * 0.1677 * (1 - 0.6744) * 0.2853 = 1.49255128e-7

It would be less then once in the million!?

I think I am wrong. So what is the correct calculation for this?

Bet regards!

sorry for your loss

Is this a thread for bad beat stories? If so zzzzzzz.

Look,everyone get sucked out on in a while, everyone goes through rough stretches when the fish hit their miracle cards over and over again. Its called variance, and the quicker people can get their head around that word the better.

how much are you "getting it in on the flop" with these overpairs? What was the action? Did you 5bet/jam for 300 bb's?

It's not enough to say "I had KK but lost my stack to A6" without giving the HH, so these examples don't really mean anything without knowing more bout the hand.

/ ibl

KK vs K7 all-in pre?!?

It sounds like you are playing in a great game. Keep playing in it, and ignore the variance.

GL.

First of all:

No! It's not another bad beat story. As I said, I am playing online poker (MTTs) since 8 years, so I saw many many, swings and "bad beats" and so on.

I am just interest about the calculation. How to calc. it?

Two things:

1. Impossible to say what the "odds" of this happening are, because you're just listing a number of hands without saying how many hands are in your sample (i.e. hands you sucked out on, hands you held up with, coin flips you won or flush draws you hit). Over a life time of hands you're always going to see all of these beat.
2. No one really cares about your bad beats. Some of these, like the AA v. 86 hand, may not have been a bad beat at all. If 86 called a $10 pre-flop bet and $500 stacks went in on the flop then 86 played it well.

Oh really? I thought I am the only one in the world.
As I said. I am just interested in the calculation, so please stop this fishy talk and better help or leave

1.
These were my only allin hands. So I am just talking about the allins.

2.
I know. I did only made moves which were +ev in the moment of the allin and where they didnt had the implied odds.

But you should ignore all this things. I am just interest in the calcultion

Lets close this topic!

This doesnt makes sense.

I am just interested how to calculate the probabilty.

I will make a new thread without hands and just for the calculation.

It's completely unanswerable. You've picked some subset of hands from your poker life and asked what the possibility of this happening is. If you play enough, the answer is that at some point it's very, very likely that you'll go through a stretch that's very bad.

It's like asking what's the possibility of getting dealt AA. The chance that your next hand is AA is 1/221. However, if you play a full session, you can't just say you got AA one time, and that was so unlikely because it's a 1/221 shot.

All that said, if all you're looking for is a mathematical equation, the chance of two independent events both occurring is equal to the product of the chance that each of them occurs. So if you have two things that occur 50% of the time, and the probability of one occurring doesn't impact the probability of the other occurring, then then chance that they both occur is 25%, the chance neither of them occur is 25%, and the chance that one but not the other occurs is 50%.

I wouldn't bother, at least in this forum. This thread and whichever new one you make is bound to get closed.

So where else should I ask for the calculation?

There's a General Gambling / Probability forum, maybe try there?

I think (???) you're doing it right by percentage of losing case 1 * percentage of losing case 2 * ... * percentage of losing case n. But you're also picking/choosing particular hands (I'm assuming all hands 1 thru n didn't occur in a space of n hands), so I'm not sure what the point is.

GgoodluckG

Thank you!
The way best answer so far!

This is what I thought also.

But Let's reformulate the question:

What is the calculation for losing with AA vs. KK four of five times?
Is know that in long term you win over 80% and so on, but I am talking about the short term (5 times) and its calculation.

Wasn't it something with the Binomial coefficient?

Multiply your V's equity (as a decimal, so if he had 18℅ use .18) in each hand to get the percentage chance of all of them happening.