Was wondering if villian made the right move on the flop.
1/2 spread limit in Black Hawk CO
Crazy table.

Guy in late position raises to $12.
I three bet to 35 from Small blind after looking down at AAcs
Two callers to the flop of 10/7/2 two hearts.
One guy folds and the villian goes $200.
I re raise all in. Heart on turn.
He shows 45 hearts.

Was him going 200 on flop with the draw a correct move? Obviously I'm getting it in there no matter what.

It's pretty common for players to push their stronger draws like this. It's not clear how deep he was but I'm assuming his $200 bet was committing if not all in. He's shoving into a $100 pot so

EV(shove) = P(fold)*100 + P(call)(P(win | call)*300 - P(lose | call)*200))

P(win | call) = .4141 against {TT+,AK} which is a typical late position 3-bet range.

EV(shove) = P(fold)*100 + P(call)(.4141*300 - .5859*200)

EV(shove) = P(fold)*100 + P(call)*7.05

Let's assume you fold AK here but not TT+. Then

P(fold) = .372

EV(shove) = .372*100 + (1-.372)*7.05 = 41.62

So yeah, it's a very profitable shove on his part. Note we ignored the other player but he is calling so rarely and villain's draw is to a flush so it makes little difference.

Note if you don't have AK in your 3-bet range it becomes more marginal, and if you have hands like AQ or 99 it becomes even more profitable.

Villain's pre-flop call with 54hh is pretty bad at these stack sizes though.

It's a 5 high flush draw with backdoor straight possibilities. Hardly a strong draw.

We're not looking at 54hh in a vacuum, but on this specific board in this specific 3-bet pot.

Yeah, it's not a strong draw in general, though in this situation it's plenty strong enough as hero doesn't have enough better flush draws in his range. So I still think villain played fine aside from calling a 3-bet with 54hh pre-flop.

I mean even if hero calls every time it's still a profitable shove from villain, so it's a strong draw here.

Sorry just re read the hand I posted and was a little off. The villian in the hand had over $1000 behind. I had around $300 starting the hand.

On the flop is where I mispoke.

I was first to act on flop I go $100 (max bet in Colorado)
One guy folds and villian goes $200.
I go $300. (All in) he calls. Gets the heart flush on the turn. Why wouldn't he just call the $100 to see if he hit the flush before getting it in?

Well knowing the stack sizes changes things just a bit. Didn't realize it was spread limit also.

My guess... because villain can't shove due to spread limit he bets the max amount hoping to fold out top pairs. In NL shoving the flop with that kind of a hand is really common when stacks aren't super deep.

Since stacks were 300 effective villain is basically shoving on the flop, since with a 200 bet and 65 behind you're never just flat calling, it's either fold or shove. The EV math is still basically the same, though the pot sizes won and lost change slightly. Villain's effective shove has EV

EV(V_shove) = P(fold)*200 + P(call)(.4141*370 - .5859*260)
EV(V_shove) = P(fold)*200 + P(call)(.883)

You're probably still folding AK when you C-bet but let's say you C-bet this flop 1/2 the time, so we remove 1/2 the AK combos, making P(fold)=8/35 and P(call)=27/35

EV(V_shove) = $46.39

So, not much difference assuming you're on {TT+, AK} when you bet here and that you're C-betting AK half the time. The more you C-bet AK or have worse hands like 99 or AQ in your range, the better the shove is from villain's perspective. If you ONLY bet TT+ here then villain's shove is marginal.

Some people play draws passively but some don't. I think aggression is much better here, though I would tend to bet 1/2 pot then fire again on the turn if it missed. But the raise is standard since you bet first. You just don't have enough flush draws in your range and neither does the guy who limp/called for villain to have to worry about running into a bigger flush.

Let's look at it from your perspective. How much equity do you need to break even when shoving?

Note P(fold) = 0 since villain is never folding to your $65 raise. Putting villain on a range is tricky here but he probably has a strong made hand (overpair+), OESDs, and FDs. His range is almost uncapped but probably doesn't contain KK or AA as he likely would 4-bet those. He might overbet TP but assuming not, his range might be something like

{QQ-TT,77,22,T7s,AhKh,AhQh,KhQh,AhJh,KhJh,QhJh,AhTh,Kh Th,QhTh,JhTh,Ah9h,Kh9h,Qh9h,Jh9h,Th9h,Ah8h,Kh8h,Jh 8h,Th8h,9h8h,Ah7h,9h7h,8h7h,Ah6h,9h6h,8h6h,7h6h,Ah 5h,8h5h,7h5h,6h5h,Ah4h,7h4h,6h4h,5h4h,Ah3h,4h3h,Ah 2h,98o} (62 combos)

Against this, P(win|call) = .57

EV(shove) = P(fold)*300 +P(call)(P(win | call)*370 - P(lose | call)*160)

EV(shove) = .57*370 - .63*160 = $110.10

So the effective shove from villain and your actual shove are both solidly +EV due to how much dead money is in the pot, plus villain can expect you to fold sometimes. You on the other hand have zero fold equity but there are so many draws in villain's range you don't need it.

Your SPR going into the flop was 300/105 or 2.85, so you should basically never fold AA going into the flop.

I think everyone's play was standard, except for villain calling a 3-bet with 54hh which, though you're 150BB deep effective, still has to be -EV...