V (450): MAWG wearing business attire. A talkative guy, playing hands with a serious face on, but really doesn't look to know what he's doing. A scare card on the board stops him dead in his tracks.

Hero (600): So far a winning image. I don't think my image affected this hand.


HH: V raised pre to 20, Hero IP calls with AKs. (I actually thought about folding, cuz his open range is super NITTY (I think JJ+ AK). I flopped a gutter, and thought I may have an additional 3 outs with my A. Anyway, he barreled all three streets, and nothing for me ever came. I only continued because his sizing was about 1/2 pot the whole way.

OTTH:

V: UTG+1 opens for 15. 3 callers ahead of hero (Who see QJ diamonds) in the CO and calls, BB calls.

Flop (80): AAJ
V leads for 35, folds to hero who calls, BB folds.

Turn (150): 6
V Checks, Hero Checks

River (150): 3
V checks, Hero bets 65....

I think I'm value betting here. Feel free to rip me apart, I laughed at myself on this one.

Probably too thin.

What is worse that calls?
What is better that folds?

I think the only hand we get value from with this sizing and dynamic in his range is JT maybe.

I could see maybe betting $20... I would think that size, 1/3 of what you bet, would make it at least 3x more likely for him to call w TT-77 which should be our primary targets for value bets.

If we do get those folds here for 20 we should take note and in later hands take the opportunity to Bluff atc getting 7.5 to 1 on our money.

Are we ranging him again on JJ+,AK pre?

Call me a nit, but if so I'd strongly consider folding pre unless the mark has particularily bad bet sizing (let's us draw cheaply) or we think we can bluff him off his one pair sometimes. The best way to handle an extremely tight pf raiser is to fold dominated hands. This hand is a perfect example.

If his range is actually AK, JJ+, we should fold the flop.

River bet is not good. We are in terrible shape against his calling range. Given read he probably has KK or QQ here.

In the history hand, pretty sure calling a gutshot + *possible* A is a pretty big leak to a turn bet (even if it is *only* 1/2 PSB).

I'm also calling preflop. We've got a nice multiway hand and we'll be in great relative and absolute position, getting an ok price with deepish stacks, and a nice multiway pot brewing. ETA: I am definitely not calling to hit a dominated TP; if we're thinking of continuing postflop with just TP, we should probably fold preflop.

You know yourself what Villain's EP range is; it's tight. Is KQ even in there? Probably not. Which means he's either betting a big A on the flop (he's never folding, we're crushed), or he's cbetting with a big pair (KK/etc.). Are we going to manage to get KK/etc. to eventually fold? Maybe, maybe not. I would fold the flop.

What are we value betting against on the river? You've said yourself this guys range is JJ+/AK, which means we beat nothing. Would TT even lead this flop? Our river bet is a pure bluff against this guy, and when we check back the turn and the draws bust, we're getting him to fold exactly never.

Gifourprefloprangeiscorrectthenpostflopisprettyspe wy,imoG

Yep yep and yep yep.
BTW... Reading that insanely long cotm you told me to look at. Only 30 mins left to finish!!!

Great point.

I find these types of players tend to make small bets in general that don't incorrectly price draws. It's a hint that they don't understand pot odds and are thinking about bet sizes in absolute terms.

Kind of a digression, but I've noticed that I can steal much more successfully on the flop in a straddled or raised pot. And my bet size can be a much smaller percentage of the pot. Yet another reason why raising marginal hands in LP can be so +EV.

Def. I think one of the most profitable adjustments I've made to my game in the past 6 months had been allowing myself to bet 1/2 and 1/3 pot as a cbet from time to time in 3bet pots or when my range is polar. Not only do you get the same folds generally, but you can increase your aggression frequency, which also has great meta game benefits as long as the droolers don't pick up on the fact that you don't barrel as often without stronger hands, which... They don't cause they're droolers

Huh?

Too thin. Villain most likely checks down KK, QQ, KJ and calls river here. Only getting value out of JTs and it doesn't sound like villain would open to 15 w/ JTs UTG+1.

Yeah... I didn't realize how bad of a bet it was until he folded his QQ. I just laughed and he got pissed. Luckily he believed me when I told him that I was laughing at myself at how badly I played it.

Just checking up on myself here, to solidify that it was a bad one.

Well then let's start a new conversation.

Is betting this river to get villain off KK, QQ, KJ a viable option? I say yes, but we need to make bet 120ish or 200ish. Thoughts? FWIW I'm a huge fan of the overbet bluff which is what I probably would do here if trying to get villain to fold KK.

Against a less fishy villain... is checking behind on the turn killing our chance of repping an A?

Essentially my pfr and cbet % are generally really high for the games I play in especially in position and against passive players (obviously I make adjustments from time to time when my image gets really ****ty and I know I'm not getting away with anything) , but on later streets I play way tighter. Most of the fish cant differentiate the two so I end up getting a lot more Acton than I deserve on big bet streets because they figure I'm still just trying to push them around.

Ah, double barrel, yeah.

It's a simple adjustment though, if your V starts calling light on the flop you start double barrelling him a lot.

I have my doubts about c betting 1/3PSB though. It looks so fishy. maybe if the board was AA9. Since when are we making 1/3PSB value bets on the flop?

Correct. So we have to bet two streets most likely, and for a decent amount. I think it is very risky and expensive unless we have a specific read that our V will c/c, c/sigh fold rivers.

If we are OOP and he checks back the turn, I think the overbet bluff has merit, especially a board like this one. If V were to check behind on the turn IP we can be pretty certain he doesn't have an ace or JJ.

For sure. AAx, KKx or monotones are usually the ones I bust out the 1/3PSB, or maybe something like AKx if I have 88 or something 3ways and dont want to give a free card/tell someone their Kx is good. tbh, I'm probably a little unbalanced towards bluffs w this sizing, but I think it's ok as long as people aren't paying attention.

If we want to bluff him off an underpair, the turn is the time to do it.

If we wanted to get value from a flush draw or gutshot (although that doesn't sound applicable here) then again the turn would be the time to do it.

Another advantage to betting the turn is that he will often tell us whether he is folding the river or not. If he makes a pained, disgusted call then he will likely fold KK/QQ to a solid river bet. If he makes a determined, stone-faced "I know you are on the flush draw" call then we check the river back.

I'd bet about half pot on the turn.