Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-19-2016, 03:00 AM   #1
Kler
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 459
Pouncing on weak bets

Consider for example the following situation:

A few limpers to you on the BTN with AKo, you make it 15-20 and get 3 callers. Eff. stacks are 300-500.

Flop comes something like T65ss, EP donks something like 20 into 80, gets one call and one fold, and the actions on you.

Assuming that villains are something like standard loose/bad players who are neither super weak or super spazzy, are you putting in a raise here? Or, how solid of a read do you have to have before you DO put in the raise?

I often find myself facing really weak bets like this that are usually anything from a draw, to a medium pocket pair, to 8T,9T,or TJ -- basically a fairly weak hand that villain doesn't want to be getting in a lot of money with. But often (maybe 50-60% of the time???) it's a weak top pair on low board that villain thinks is probably best. I always want to just click it back to 90 or so and expect folds a lot of the time, but lose heart as I doubt whether villain will be willing to fold, for example, a T, and am dissuaded.

I was in this situation a lot today but was fatigued, wasn't analyzing player tendencies very well, and just was lacking the confidence I usually have when deciding to raise or fold in situations like the above. But in general, it's something I've been trying to pay more attention to, as it could be EXTREMELY profitable if I can get a lot of folds in spots like these. They happen all time in bloated pots at loose tables.
Kler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2016, 03:24 AM   #2
Kler
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 459
Re: Pouncing on weak bets

Following up, on the other hand, when I'm in this spot and actually have a hand I still get called reasonably often, maybe something like 40% of the time. I expect most people will just say it's a bad idea trying to get people to fold top pair and etc., and in general I agree. But I also think there are for sure people who are sometimes putting in a raise-bluff here, and am wondering what specific things you're looking for before you do so. (Aside from the obvious, villain is super easy to read and super weak).
Kler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2016, 04:38 AM   #3
javi
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 7,457
Re: Pouncing on weak bets

It depends largely on board texture. On really dry boards, like T72r a donkbet is often a fish just trying to "find out where he's at" with a weak hand like maybe 97o or 55. He figures if you raise then you must have an overpair so he's paid a cheap price to avoid having to call a cbet and guess.

On wet boards fish are often trying to just set the price for their own draw, and we all know fish never fold a draw, so trying to bet them off of it is probably suicide. They may donk $20 into $80 because they'd rather only pay $20 to see that flush draw, by of course they are going to call a $100 reraise anyway if they have to.

So if the board is pretty unconnected then I will bluff raise any donkbet heads up. If there are callers in between you have to be worried because sometimes someone is just trying to trap by calling the donkbet hoping that you raise since you were the initial raiser. I still sometimes raise a 3way pot as a bluff vs a donkbet but only if I have history with the guy in between to know that he's also calling weak.
javi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2016, 10:54 AM   #4
Mat the Gambler
adept
 
Mat the Gambler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Greater Worcester, MA
Posts: 1,132
Re: Pouncing on weak bets

I generally just do whatever I would have done if villain had checked.
Mat the Gambler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2016, 11:11 AM   #5
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
Re: Pouncing on weak bets

If this was heads up I would raise. Here, I fold.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2016, 11:40 AM   #6
cannabusto
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,749
Re: Pouncing on weak bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kler View Post
Consider for example the following situation:

A few limpers to you on the BTN with AKo, you make it 15-20 and get 3 callers. Eff. stacks are 300-500.

Flop comes something like T65ss, EP donks something like 20 into 80, gets one call and one fold, and the actions on you.

Assuming that villains are something like standard loose/bad players who are neither super weak or super spazzy, are you putting in a raise here? Or, how solid of a read do you have to have before you DO put in the raise?

I often find myself facing really weak bets like this that are usually anything from a draw, to a medium pocket pair, to 8T,9T,or TJ -- basically a fairly weak hand that villain doesn't want to be getting in a lot of money with. But often (maybe 50-60% of the time???) it's a weak top pair on low board that villain thinks is probably best. I always want to just click it back to 90 or so and expect folds a lot of the time, but lose heart as I doubt whether villain will be willing to fold, for example, a T, and am dissuaded.

I was in this situation a lot today but was fatigued, wasn't analyzing player tendencies very well, and just was lacking the confidence I usually have when deciding to raise or fold in situations like the above. But in general, it's something I've been trying to pay more attention to, as it could be EXTREMELY profitable if I can get a lot of folds in spots like these. They happen all time in bloated pots at loose tables.
Grunching,

Sigh. I know. I've said this elsewhere lately, but I feel like my aggression in spots like these have been a big leak. Everyone is just such a ****ing station. Sometimes it feels impossible to win without good cards.

All I an say is pay attention. See who has a fold button. What are they willing to fold in which situations? Easier said than done.
cannabusto is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2016, 12:25 PM   #7
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 32,951
Re: Pouncing on weak bets

I'm pretty much always instamucking here. First, people don't fold draws on the flop; are you prepared to barrel the turn huge? Second, even though the donk is small, it's still a donk into multiple people, plus there is a caller involved, and they both might be sandbagging a huge hand hoping you do exactly what you're planning to do.

Gfoldingisfine,imoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2016, 02:36 PM   #8
keybattle
grinder
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 662
Re: Pouncing on weak bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by javi View Post
It depends largely on board texture. On really dry boards, like T72r a donkbet is often a fish just trying to "find out where he's at" with a weak hand like maybe 97o or 55. He figures if you raise then you must have an overpair so he's paid a cheap price to avoid having to call a cbet and guess.

On wet boards fish are often trying to just set the price for their own draw, and we all know fish never fold a draw, so trying to bet them off of it is probably suicide. They may donk $20 into $80 because they'd rather only pay $20 to see that flush draw, by of course they are going to call a $100 reraise anyway if they have to.

So if the board is pretty unconnected then I will bluff raise any donkbet heads up. If there are callers in between you have to be worried because sometimes someone is just trying to trap by calling the donkbet hoping that you raise since you were the initial raiser. I still sometimes raise a 3way pot as a bluff vs a donkbet but only if I have history with the guy in between to know that he's also calling weak.
like this
keybattle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2016, 11:44 PM   #9
Snarflar
newbie
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 16
Re: Pouncing on weak bets

In my experience such weak bets are often just that, weak. However, the caller in the middle changes things slightly. Heads up in this spot it's a raise all day. These seem to be "where am I at bets". And of course when somebody wants to know where they're at you tell them they are beat.

Once the bet is called though I often call as well and bet hard if any "scare card" hits the turn unless the "aggressor" changes his bet sizing. Without any background or live reads on a player I always defer to bet sizing when I begin my to think of how to continue.

Side note: in the example situation with the bet and call before your action I would probably assume the caller has the better hand if he is at all competent.
Snarflar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-20-2016, 12:39 AM   #10
bodybuilder32
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,423
Re: Pouncing on weak bets

In my games, a donk lead into the aggressor has always been a hand they are willing to play for stacks with. It's seriously so level 1 that I can muck my very strong hand 1 pair hands without blinking an eye.

Raising the flop generally has way less fold equity than later streets. If you want to push a guy off a hand, wait for the "scare card" to actually hit and then make a big raise or big bet.

But even these spots are rare at low stakes. Villains just play so bad that deviating from abc is often a pretty big leak.
bodybuilder32 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:17 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive