This has been a long brewing thought process in my mind and something I'm certainly not immune to. Many times, pot odds and simple calculations are great friends that help us make correct decisions. Sometimes though, I start thinking about odds when I've gotten myself into a sticky situation.

For instance: I played a hand today (1/2) and had KQ in CO. There was a straddle and multiple callers (4). People were playing loose and passive, but they were also susceptible to preflop aggression which made raising definitely profitable. I raised to 22. The fellow to the left of me had a short stack and I certainly made a mistake in not considering that. He was hesitant and then went all in (for 72; 50 more so essentially 11:5 odds. My initial instinct was gross and wanted to fold. Need to have around 31% equity. I talked for information and he didn't seem super strong such as aces/kings/queens. Then I started thinking that I am blocking AK and AQ (not optimally but some fraction). Then I thought I don't even need to be in a coin flip. As long as I'm avoiding domination, aren't I compelled to call?

And so I did begrudgingly and probably with fallacious thinking. And he turned over AQdd.

So much of our assessment of equity and odds is CONTINGENT on our assessments of situation and range. And there are more factors. It's pretty abstract if you think about it too..

Suppose someone makes a pot bet vs a 2/3 pot bet on the river. You have a good hand but it's decision time.

In the first case, we need to be good one every three times to break even. In the second case we need to be good three out of eight hands to be even.

How do we really quantify that.. you need a lot of data to even begin to use such reasoning accurately? More importantly, how does that affect how we FEEL out situations in hands and make great decisions.

I supposed this post is less didactic and more asking for your help and insight. To me, being grounded in mathematics is very important to understanding. But, what is essential to being a great and winning player is definitely something else -- maybe it's too multifactorial to really demonstrate. Anyways, hope you enjoyed.

If I would offer any bottom line, be skeptical a bit of pot odds. It's a great tool. But unless used really well with hand ranging and equity assessment, it can induce us to make some suboptimal plays.

Cheers


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In Hold’em, figuring odds and percentages doesn’t take more than a fourth grader’s knowledge of head arithmetic. Preflop you see how many bb are in the pot and how much you got to call, that ratio is the immediate pot odds. OTF you need to figure out the chances of making your hand with two cards to come as well as one card to come. If villain shoves and you want to call you got the # of outs x 4. OTT you multiply # of outs x 2

If villain has stacks behind and I cover, in that case I have what is called the "hidden percentages" on top of my chance to make it. Even if my # of outs x 2 OTT is very close I may want to call. The reason here is that hidden percentage because if I help my hand, I might be getting laid 10 to 1 odds, because this dude with the two AA will go all the way with them. And I’ll break him.

The most important is to recognize OTF what are your winning cards, losing cards, bluffing cards and what cards makes the nut. This skill is much much harder then in Blackjack Card Counting, if you know what I'm talking about. In Hold'em OTF without looking at your hand the second time you got to figure in a split second. Practice at home by dealing yourself two pocket cards and flops and read the board over and again and again for hours and hours and days ..., You got to be good at this before you play this game for money. Matter of fact the minute you got your two cards you have to know before the flops comes down what cards are you looking on the flop and ... etc.. etc.., Practice!

Nice post OP.

this is where the psychology merges with the math. By understanding your opponents thought processes you can narrow their range of hands down to give you better pot odds in your decision making.

Being good at math is useless if you range opponents inaccurately in spot after spot, in addition to being bad at determining how your opponents view YOU and how they will react to your bets.

It's his two, plus your two, plus the three thirds in the pot.

So you're calling two thirds to win seven thirds so you need 2/7ths or 29% equity to call.

You are making this too complicated. Watch Jason Somerville on twitch and listen how he explains this while in the game. EX. I need to call $X to win $X. Am I good X% of the time? I think so. Based on the way the hand has played, he has missed fd, sd, weaker pairs, air enough to make this a call.

He doesn't stove the range then and there because no one. You can analyze the texture of the board and construct a decent range based on the action that has played out. Hope this help.

There was a straddle. To minimize the pot size, we'll say it's $4 straddle. 4 callers [$20 + $3 blinds] Hero bets $22 [$45] Button all-in $72 [$117] everyone folds. $117 - $7 rake & $1 tip = $109/$50 = Hero putting in <33% [31.45%] of the total money in the pot.

If straddle is $5, that's $25 + $3 blinds [$28] + $22 raise by Hero + $72 all-in equals $122 - $8 rake/tip = $114 + $50 call = $164 & Hero is putting in 30.49% of the money in the pot with his $50 call.

Hero has 39.xx% equity vs. AT-AJs/o & 35% equity if you add AQs/o & 35.5x% if you add JJ in Vs range. However, that includes those times Hero ties with V.

If the straddle was $5 & you pretend that the house doesn't rake & you don't tip: $122 + $50 = $172 & Hero's $50 call is 29.06% of money in the pot.

As outdonked mentioned, the math is fairly easy. What is difficult for LLSNL players is constructing a reasonable range. TBH, I don't really think much about having blockers. I want to instead observe the player and get a sense of his thinking.

The first thing to think about is where are you playing. If you are in a locals room, it is more likely that if he runs out of money, he's blown his budget for the evening and is going home. If it is 2 am and the free drinks stopped, he may be looser. If it is 7 pm, he's less likely to end his night.

That's why I like to see if he rebought and if so, how full was his wallet? If he has a wad of 100's, he's jamming lighter. If he has nothing, he's jamming tighter.

The next thing is to think about his stack size. Unfortunately, he's in a range where it is less likely he's thinking, "what the hell let's go" with ATC.

Without any further information, I'd probably fold, but it isn't a horrible idea to raise to play HU.

Appreciate the post @venice10


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Experience. That experience could need to be vs. that specific player too. The more you play the more you can see what kinds of cards people show up with in various situations. Study those situations using equity calculators away from the table to gain a better understanding of what sorts of plays you need to make in those spots.

Obv GIGO applies to any analysis but this is a standard spot that is usually close to break even. Run 99+ AQ+ vs any two Broadway's. 2:1 usually a fold, 3:1 usually a call. If you're suited lean call, if villain is ready to go home or steaming call. If villain is on the tighter side like JJ+ you can fold.

But here's the thing, I call in break even spots like this because it's a free roll for my strategy. I'm raising lots of pots and take my it down pre. When I get 3! I want to defend whenever possible. It's part of my game. I want to defend my opens. Understanding pot odds, ranges and equity allows me to open aggressively understanding ill sometimes have to defend as a dog profitably but rarely getting too bad the worst of it.

You need 29% in your example. If you were suited it's pretty much always a call. Otherwise either decision is defensible and it pot odds / equity that tells us this. Don't dismiss it like the fish do.



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Come on man, this isn't Quantum Physicis. I think it's pretty insulting to keep telling people that they need to spends hours and days practicing just to know what cards will make their hand. Even a total drooler that's played poker more than a couple times knows what their outs are. I could see telling this to a friend who's never played Poker but wants to try it out once, but this is a Poker forum; people post here because they play poker. ...ZOMG, I have KQ on a 10 9 3 board, when that J peeled OTT I had no idea that I made the nut straight. If only I would have dealt myself 10k cold hands while I was at home by myself, maybe I would have learned that 5 cards of sequential rank is known as a "straight" in Poker.

I will cede that there is merit in figuring out what cards are good for you to bluff on, but that's a concept far too complex to be solved by dealing flops in front of you on your kitchen table. That's mostly learned by table experience and the ability to accurately figure out a players ranges and tendencies in-game, which again comes with experience.