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Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3

04-21-2016 , 09:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Hero had 166BBs. Villain had him covered.
My bad I guess, I misread the OP, I thought we were the ones with $335.

Though I still think it's a 3-bet or fold spot. We have one villain @ 335 eff, and another at $500 eff, that averages to about $420 eff, which is still less than the somewhat arbitrary 150BB threshhold I would use for nut-mining with 8 high. Plus there are other players left to act, we don't know what their stacks are. And the biggest stack belongs to the tightest player. A lot of intangibles here, not deterministic math

Let's use GG's math from a few post back. And let's say that a V makes a decent c-bet of $60 and we go heads up to the turn (which really is the best case scenario). He calculated we need V to payoff $120 on the turn, but that's still a break even play. And the chances that the other guy folds to an obvious flush card is not zero. So even under the best circumstances, we need to hit, and have another opponent put in $200+ dollars with a second-best hand, and even then the EV is slim. None of that is a recipe for winning poker. It's weak-knee scaredy cat play perpetuated by casinos full of people without bankrolls.

Just 3-ball the hand pre-flop, isolate some MAWG who thinks he can play like he sees on TV, and then force him to fold when his Q9s whiffs.

I could keep going, but here are the major bullet points.
1 - Your chances of flopping the joint AND getting paid are a jillion to 1, and effective stacks do not justify it.
2 - Your chances of flopping a draw are fair, however, with a low SPR and multiple opponents, the money is almost always going in on the flop. At the very least, commitment decisions will almost always be made on the flop....when you're behind.
Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Quote
04-21-2016 , 09:43 AM
Your posts ITT are completely worthless.
Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Quote
04-21-2016 , 09:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerisEZ
Fold or raise pre-flop.

Biggest misconception in poker is that suited connectors play well multi-way. It's a very common mistake, made even by forum veterans here. The truth is, they are half right. What they are all missing is that suited connectors play well multi-way....WHEN DEEP STACKED.

In this hand, we have 3 players in the pot, with two left to act after us. If we call, we're likely to see an SPR of 3-5, which means we had better flop the nuts, or we're just lighting $15 on fire. That's 1/22 of our stack. We've probably got something like a 30 to 1 shot to hit, and who knows where the odds go after that if we want to hit our hand AND get paid.

The only reason this became a thread is because it got "iffy" after V1 made a screwy c-bet. In real life, any reasonable c-bet puts us into commitment territory. You'll be folding most of the time, so save the $15. Or, if you intend to continue past this commitment threshold, then your most likely play is a semi-bluff shove, which really works best against fewer opponents.

If we're playing speculative hands for their multi-way implied odds, then we really need more money. I don't know what the cutoff is, it depends on the game, but in virtually every case I'd say you'd want 150BB or more.

So the only other way to play this hand is to isolate a player who folds too much post-flop. Raise pre-flop to bloat the pot, then steal it 2/3 of the time. The speculative-ness of your hand gives you a back-up in case your opponent hits and calls you down

Fold or 3-bet, not sure which is better, but both are preferable to calling.

As played, post-flop, a bet and a raise to me tells me that the river card won't be free. I've got 9 outs, and they may not even be live. There's also a non-negligible chance I'm up against a bigger pair, and a bigger flush draw, meaning I'm drawing dead. Again, this is only a question because V1 did something really weird. The other 99.9% of the time we're shoving or folding on this flop, not calling.
I don't believe in a 'commitment threshold' in cash games.
Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Quote
04-21-2016 , 09:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Your posts ITT are completely worthless.
I think you meant "priceless"

If you're playing SC's solely for value, don't invest more than 2% of the average effective stack pre-flop.
Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Quote
04-21-2016 , 09:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k
I don't believe in a 'commitment threshold' in cash games.
Well I'm not going to start a war over vocabulary. Use whatever terminology you want. But I don't believe in investing large fractions of your stack and subsequently folding.

If that's happening, it's because you were just clicking buttons and didn't really have a plan for the hand.
Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Quote
04-21-2016 , 09:52 AM
Define large. I wouldn't have a problem calling the $60 OTB and seeing the turn and then folding after putting in $75.

I also have no problem putting in half my stack or more. Sometimes, you have to fold in certain spots when you no longer have the best hand.
Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Quote
04-21-2016 , 10:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k
Define large. I wouldn't have a problem calling the $60 OTB and seeing the turn and then folding after putting in $75.
Personally, I see that as just clicking buttons and gambling. I guess you can concoct some implied odds that justify the call on the flop, but wouldn't justify a call on the turn. To me that style of poker relies on catching cards instead of exploiting your opponents weaknesses.

Plus, the line you're advocating is so obvious and common, that it makes YOU exploitable. Flat preflop, Flat a draw heavy flop, then get busy when a third spade falls....who's gonna pay you off? I guarantee most players don't think that through when calculating their implied odds. If you call the $60, hit, and V folds.....you did not make a profitable play....you just got lucky.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k
I also have no problem putting in half my stack or more. Sometimes, you have to fold in certain spots when you no longer have the best hand.
Yeah, if you flop a straight and the board is 4-flushed by the river, go ahead and cut your losses. But this kind of stuff shouldn't' be a routine occurrence if you playing each hand with a plan and reasonable expectations.
Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Quote
04-21-2016 , 11:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Your posts ITT are completely worthless.
We really should have reconsidered voting BadlyBeaten as the Welcome Wagon host.

GwelcometotheforumsPokerisEZ,hopeyouhaveathickskin !G
Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Quote
04-21-2016 , 11:57 AM
Interesting discussion on play with SCs. Id like to add my 2cents.

a) 87s on btn is good hand, should not fold unless there is a 3bet.
b) 3b pre is not bad, but as for sqz we should use rather linear range, this is too wide sqz. Anyway 3b is OK when blinds are squeeze happy or we expect good FE preflop.
c) 100% agree with poster who said SCs are not esp good deepstacked. It is nice to have 500bb eff and great implied. Unfortunately we are not able to use it, cannot stack off for deep stack with low flush. Here we must look for Axs, only nuts/very close to nuts hands can go AI so deep.
Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Quote
04-21-2016 , 12:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
We really should have reconsidered voting BadlyBeaten as the Welcome Wagon host.

GwelcometotheforumsPokerisEZ,hopeyouhaveathickskin !G
Don't worry about me. And Mr. BB will learn eventually, either by reading here, or by losing all of his money. I tend to take a minority view in most poker situations, and I'm comfortable with it because the majority of poker players suck.

I know "experts" and "veterans" and "authors" will happily preach the benefit of drawing hands and position. But I truly believe it is the GREATEST misconception in poker. Speculative hands need either A) Awesome implied odds, or B) tons of post-flop fold equity.

Multi way with low SPR does not fit either of those molds. 2-3% of effective stacks really should be the upper limit of a pre-flop call. If you can't do that, then fold or raise, and that's a table dependent call.
Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Quote
04-21-2016 , 05:15 PM
Fold pre.

Not deep enough vs the opener to simply try and hit our hand. If you had some stone-cold reads where you knew you could bluff and take pots away post flop, that's one thing. Doesn't sound like it here tho. It's close IMO.

AP,

V1 is clicking buttons.
V2 likes his hand and I'm assuming isn't folding. Since we don't have reads, I'm assuming a rando $1/3 player isn't going HAM with some combo draw. So we probably don't have the fold equity needed to 3-bet here.

I'm calling but I'm not loving it.
Post flop on the button with pair and flush draw 1/3 Quote

      
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