Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Hero had 166BBs. Villain had him covered.
My bad I guess, I misread the OP, I thought we were the ones with $335.
Though I still think it's a 3-bet or fold spot. We have one villain @ 335 eff, and another at $500 eff, that averages to about $420 eff, which is still less than the somewhat arbitrary 150BB threshhold I would use for nut-mining with 8 high. Plus there are other players left to act, we don't know what their stacks are. And the biggest stack belongs to the tightest player. A lot of intangibles here, not deterministic math
Let's use GG's math from a few post back. And let's say that a V makes a decent c-bet of $60 and we go heads up to the turn (which really is the best case scenario). He calculated we need V to payoff $120 on the turn, but that's still a
break even play. And the chances that the other guy folds to an obvious flush card is
not zero. So even under the best circumstances, we need to hit, and have another opponent put in $200+ dollars with a second-best hand, and even then the EV is slim. None of that is a recipe for winning poker. It's weak-knee scaredy cat play perpetuated by casinos full of people without bankrolls.
Just 3-ball the hand pre-flop, isolate some MAWG who thinks he can play like he sees on TV, and then force him to fold when his Q9s whiffs.
I could keep going, but here are the major bullet points.
1 - Your chances of flopping the joint AND getting paid are a jillion to 1, and effective stacks do not justify it.
2 - Your chances of flopping a draw are fair, however, with a low SPR and multiple opponents, the money is almost always going in on the flop. At the very least, commitment decisions will almost always be made on the flop....when you're behind.