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Poll: AA Readless Stack/Pot Ratio Question Poll: AA Readless Stack/Pot Ratio Question
View Poll Results: What stack/pot ratio are we getting broke at?
Less than 1.5 only
1 8.33%
Less than 2.0
2 16.67%
Less than 3.0
5 41.67%
Some s/p ratio greater than 3.0
4 33.33%

07-24-2015 , 04:00 PM
Some other threads have made me start thinking about stack/pot ratio in the current LLSNL meta, so I wanted to ask this question:

Assuming we put in the last aggressive action preflop, at what stack/pot ratio are you always getting broke postflop against a villain who you have minimal reads on? Presumably the ratio you'd get broke with is higher for a maniacal villain and lower for a sane/tight/winning one, but just for a generic villain (maybe post reasoning/major differences depending on villain types in thread).

Just to give an example, $1/2 NL, everyone starts the hand with $300:

UTG calls, two folds, MP raises to 15, one fold, HJ calls, CO folds, Hero (BTN) raises to $X with AA, folds to MP who calls, HJ folds.

If X is 75, MP calls and there's about 165 in there, S/Pratio is 225/165 or 1.3ish, presumably everybody's getting broke. X of 50, pot is ~120, SPratio is 250/120 or slightly over 2, probably some people aren't? Simplistic, but trying to conceptualize for deeper stacks mostly.

I believe this should be on-topic for this forum, but if it's L/C please move to the chat or other thread as appropriate, thanks.
Poll: AA Readless Stack/Pot Ratio Question Quote
07-24-2015 , 06:16 PM
If we're talking about 3betting, I don't it is as useful to break down the answer to SPR but rather to the implied odds we offered preflop (where offering the same implied odds in different cases could produce different SPRs).

Here's an example. When 3betting, I like to offer 8:1 implied odds because it makes setmining/etc. unprofitable (which I'd really like it to be because my hand migh be face-upish if I'm not 3betting a lot plus the resulting SPR will typically be quite small tying my hands to stack off postflop).

Ex 1: A raise to $20, so with effective stack $220 I 3bet to $50 (offering 8:1 implied odds). The resulting SPR will be 1.7.

Ex 2: A raise to $20, so with effective stack $300 I 3bet to $60 (again offering 8:1 implied odds). But this time the resulting SPR will be 2.0.

Again, easy enough to create a bunch of other examples where the implied odds we're offering are 8:1, but the resulting SPRs are all different (although all of them will be small enough to stack off, imo).

GnotsureifthathelpedornotG
Poll: AA Readless Stack/Pot Ratio Question Quote
07-24-2015 , 08:03 PM
Sure -- I guess I was partly thinking not exclusively about 3-bet pots, but instead also situations like three limps to us on the button, we make it 15-20, leaving SPR of like 5ish, we probably stack off on some boards but not others, and so on.

The other thing is if we're 300bb deep, presumably this all changes -- we can no longer simply offer them 8:1 or whatever, we're going to have to make a raise that's around pot-sized and then continue to play poker. But, at the same time, there's still a SPR ratio at which we'd still get broke against a random, a maniac or a tight villain.

I guess I'm not explaining all of this that well, but to some extent I'm just asking a very old question: how many of your chips do you need to have in preflop before you ignore the flop and just shove anyways? Anyways, your thoughts were definitely helpful, just trying to look for additional ways to consider the same thing.
Poll: AA Readless Stack/Pot Ratio Question Quote
07-24-2015 , 09:59 PM
Always is a strong word. I answered "less than 3.0", but, 2.9 is probably more like 95% of the time. Sorry, maybe I should've said "less than 2.0". Once you get out of the upper 2s, they've got to show me their cards.
Poll: AA Readless Stack/Pot Ratio Question Quote
07-25-2015 , 03:49 AM
I'm comfortable betting 2/3 pot cbet and potting the turn to get all-in, which works out to an SPR of 3.0. Deeper I'm playing AA more cautiously, folding more easily and often using it more as a bluff catcher than a value hand if I fail to make a set.

This is also assuming heads up. Two opponents I might want like a 2.5 SPR to be happy to get in, against the entire table I'd probably check/fold a wet board with an SPR of 1.5...
Poll: AA Readless Stack/Pot Ratio Question Quote
07-25-2015 , 09:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
If we're talking about 3betting, I don't it is as useful to break down the answer to SPR but rather to the implied odds we offered preflop (where offering the same implied odds in different cases could produce different SPRs).

Here's an example. When 3betting, I like to offer 8:1 implied odds because it makes setmining/etc. unprofitable (which I'd really like it to be because my hand migh be face-upish if I'm not 3betting a lot plus the resulting SPR will typically be quite small tying my hands to stack off postflop).

Ex 1: A raise to $20, so with effective stack $220 I 3bet to $50 (offering 8:1 implied odds). The resulting SPR will be 1.7.

Ex 2: A raise to $20, so with effective stack $300 I 3bet to $60 (again offering 8:1 implied odds). But this time the resulting SPR will be 2.0.

Again, easy enough to create a bunch of other examples where the implied odds we're offering are 8:1, but the resulting SPRs are all different (although all of them will be small enough to stack off, imo).

GnotsureifthathelpedornotG
Ex. 3: Straddle pot, I start with $240, I open to $30. I've offered everyone about 8:1 and the resulting SPR (if heads-up) will be about 210:60, or 3.5 (because remember there's rake). This is also a situation in which I'm never folding aces against an unknown.

So the SPR can be greater than 3 and I'll still be committed sometimes. I think my answer would be somewhere between 3 and 4.
Poll: AA Readless Stack/Pot Ratio Question Quote
07-25-2015 , 10:07 AM
SPR is just a measure of stack depth.

Yes, with a low SPR, we'll usually get it all in. But not always.

There's not really an inflection point. It's just a data point. I mean, sure, if SPR is extremely low, like equal or less than 1, you're very nearly never folding AA. But I still wouldn't say never. It'd be a once every 5 year thing vs. the most readible of all villains.

There are many other data points. Ranges, tendencies, equities, combinatorics, etc. SPR isn't a magic bullet, it's just one tool.
Poll: AA Readless Stack/Pot Ratio Question Quote
07-25-2015 , 02:02 PM
What Willy said. Ultimately, this is a level 1 type of question. "I have AA, what should I do?" I'll keep it open for a bit to see what happens. However, these type of threads often devolve rapidly and I reserve the right to lock it because there isn't much that can be said about it.
Poll: AA Readless Stack/Pot Ratio Question Quote

      
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