I don't like the huge turn sizing especially since you only cbet 50. You should be trying keep the pot size under control since you have only an upper medium PP in a now bloated 3bet pot.

Betting 120 into 270 would have been fine. If I had air I might fire the turn and give up if called but you should be trying to get to SD as cheap as possible. Now theres an argument to c/f the river as played.

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Can you come up with a range then? Assume that UTG 4-bets AK 50% of the time, which is reasonable.

For me, I’m going to assume your winning TAG reg or pro in general here who knows or thinks he is good is going to fold at an extremely low freq vs the 3b pre. ie call almost every suited hand. I mean, if you’re calling K10s, you’re going to have a ton of clubs here

That aside, Kx makes up such a small portion of his range that it’s almost insignificant. If you dont believe so, find a range and calculate the probability he has Kx ott. I merely brought up the point of clubs because we can now get called by plenty worse than if it were rainbow. If it were rainbow im still betting

Vs a 28% psb otf people will float crazy wide in 3b pots, regs/whales/regfish/donks you name it. You wouldnt believe what I’ve seen people floated me with unless you saw the HHs. They just get sick of these “gay” 1/3 bets & 1/4 bets, and want to fight back, or whatever. They’ll call with complete air, no equity or low equity in an attempt to outplay me on later streets (a lot of times they end up getting owned or donking off their stack)

I play in 3! pots at least once every ten minutes whenever I play/played. And dont say that live is completely different. We are talking about a “pro” here who most likely thinks he can outplay people IP, and I have a lot of experience with those types of people in 3! pots or just 3! pots in general, just from the nature of 6-max

If i had clubs here im snap checking back for free equity, or if i bluff im going to bomb basically 95% of rivers. I’d only give up on a Q/J and possibly 10/K

This is all really wrong in theory since we should not be range dbl barreling here but i’ve found that dbl barreling in these spots does better than checking as an exploit. I’d also actually check AK sometimes like you in these spots, especially vs regs and moreso vs ones who are spazzy

Also vs a good reg you are much more likely to get value from Tx/JJ/non-believing pairs by a dbl barrel rather than bet x bet, which is almost universally a thin value bet or Kx in these scenarios (at least from a reg). Ofc you can reverse psychology this and do this with your bluffs but in general i dont see regs do this often.

This is exactly my point and why I check the turn. To trap them and let the "outplay me" on the turn by betting their "complete air, low equity, no equity".

Why would they float the flop to outplay you on later streets and then not bet the turn when you check an obvious scare card? That makes no sense.

It’s hardly trapping when you have an underpair to the scare card, which is good for your range. If a reg is good, he’ll realize you mostly have SDV here like QQ/JJ and either check back with his bluffs for free equity, or bomb turn/river to get you off your hand.

My point was that if a good reg is bluffing turn, he should be following through otr (which they do a lot) and it’s not my style to station off at 100% freq with QQ/JJ there vs a turn and river barrel. Ofc that’s why checking AK here can be good. And also getting two streets of value here is pretty valuable, most regs arent paying off another bet if you take a bet x bet line (or they’ll even bluff-raise you otr since you are capped).

We’ll just have to agree to disagree

Looks like MikeStarr and I are alone on this island lol. Good discussion either way though.

Neither betting or checking is wrong. Its just a difference in playing styles. What's wrong is betting too big....and $175 is too big

Turn is too big, we could bet smaller ott given flop sizing but I probs would be checking that turn, not to fold.
Its more likely they will bluff turn with worse than call with worse imo

Real good posts and yes it's difficult to quantify why the turn is a bet more as an exploit tactic live, but it very much is, especially deep and with a (now) protected range.*

*Whether or not hero can/should be bet betting flop with zero sets is one thing, but when that narrow to begin with, this Kx means we turned the nuts more often and would be betting always.

Instead of checking KK and AK and QQ et al, you just bet all of them again in a spot where V should remain wide, a number of floats just picked up equity, and he now just cannot raise turn. To Mike's point, truth is we really don't have a range capable of withstand bet/bets from IP V deep, and he might know that/use that to his advantage. There are a world of rivers too (when turn goes check call) that reduce our river calldown range to ashes and like Minatorr said, it's not trapping him whatsoever when he can default to betting huge/ripping river ith everything. All in all, there is often a lot of value in pre-empting bluffs for this reason, but can still be ahead of Vs calling range when betting. It's complicated, but if betting turn, I am actually going to choose a large size for these reasons/range is narrow strong and heavy in top set.

It for sure can be wrong either way. It's not about the style it's about the range itself.