Would never cbet this flop with A6. You're not going to 3 barrel, and when you check later it shows too much weakness. There are 0 cards on the turn that I'm scared of, nothing to protect against other than 65s. I would check all aces on this flop out of position in most cases.
Most players would bet an ace when checked to on the flop here, so I'm thinking it's less likely that you're beat. I would bet something like 40% pot on turn & river to get thin value from 76/87 and 88-JJ. Smaller sizing allows you to keep the pot smaller in the event that you're beat, and won't scare away weaker hands as often.
If you check a second time you might induce a bluff from air, but you also miss value of he has one of the aforementioned hands. I think that check turn, bet river is fine as well. It's dicey if you get put in a position where you're having to check/call on both the turn & river, my reaction would be player dependent but I lean towards calling down.
Following villans turn bet you are 100% correct to have alarm bells ringing....
As I said I played a very similar hand vs a decent aggressive player, who I felt could have a decent % of bluffs in his range, I called turn and folded river, but I don't see the point in calling the turn bet....even though I felt like I was good a decent % of the time, the river bet was always going to be too big to call, and so u called the turn just hoping for a showdown....
We are getting Great odds to call the turn, but you should also figure the river bet and pot size there before calculating how many bluffs villan has:
Pot= pot on flop+turn bet+percieved river bet
Our price= turn bet+percieved river bet....
We will be probably getting around 5.5:4 on calling both streets unimproved so Villan needs to have 40% of his range that we are ahead of...
That seems optimistic so would suggest this is a fold...
Can anyone explain how betting flop is worth it in terms of:
making the pot bigger when we win
OR
making our opponent fold equity?
Most of villains hands will have almost no equity (unpaired hands). Some will have a tiny amount of equity (paired hands, gutshots). 4 will have a decent amount of equity (OESD). The rest have more equity than us (better top pairs). Why are we betting the flop?
I put forth that people who want to bet the flop and check/fold the turn are turning a strong made hand into a bluff for no reason. And those that want to bet the flop and check/call the turn are going to be putting too much money into the pot with a weak hand. Our hand is much better as a bluff catcher than as a value hand.
Checking the flop lets a bunch of good things happen:
Villain bets - villains betting range is more polarized than villains calling range, since villains middling hands have not a lot of equity this is a good thing. We add more bluffs to villains range
Villain checks - we weaken our perceived range and can let a card roll off that improves villains hand to a hand weaker than ours. On turn broadway cards, we can bet for value, OR (better IMO) we can check again and either call two streets, or bet river if turn checks through again. We weaken our perceived range again, which with a bluff catcher is what we want.
Betting this flop is a Bad Play. It is +ev, but certainly not maximally EV. Don't bet this flop, please.