It's a very interesting point you bring up, one that I actually have had extensive discussions about for probably 20 years. Put somewhat crudely, which is more important to money making? Relying on what I think someone thinks OR what I know I know. Can we really rely on our own perceived image? range? Within the span of one orbit, whales become nits and nits become spews. It's so hard to really know someone else's state of mind, I gave up on it as a way to reliably make money. I mean it's part of live play and I would never ignore it, but my actual range is what matters more, for me, and especially in showdown heavy games.

I am fine taking down the dead money. This is not the type of table I think we can profitably call 88 with tough V on our direct right. So often we whiff and have to fold our under-pair when BTN bets and we have players behind us.

88 does not play well multiway especially with our tight nitty image against solid players IP. They are not paying you off when you bink.


Also, bolded makes zero sense. We are nutted when we do this with our image.

This is really all that matters.

If we are playing at a fishy table where we still get paid off, then turn donk is fine since they are playing their relative hand strengths and oblivious.

This a tough shorthanded table and we are in the nut worst position.

Since we have no bluffing frequency, The best play would be to check call down and let laggy BTN bomb that scary river...trying to move us off 1p

Of course we would call, because the blind's betting range doesn't immediately consist of only sets. By the time you bet bet shove though you have only sets with maybe a few other hands. Are you suggesting bet bet shoving 8x and 88? You might allow AA the luxury of folding and make money with your range in a vacuum, but not over time and it certainly is not going to make more money than other lines you would take.

It means that when we have a nitty image, we want to have a few bluff combos in our range to take advantage of the fact that people will be giving us a lot of credit when we c/r. If we c/r here it allows us to play our range in a way that more balanced than any other line imo. The main issue that everyone is coming up with in regards to how OP actually played the hand is that it seems very face up, to which a flop c/r seems to fix that problem is we c/r sets and 87 and 56 and T9 combos.


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I agree strongly with amanaplan and think others are missing important points.

Mod edit: edited for tone. wait, read the stickies again.

You're living in theory and not reality. We have to have shown the ability to have a bluffing frequency, which I am almost positive we don't.

Just because there are a few draws available does not mean we have any, especially when we donk multiway with a large sizing. Any solid V OTB can get away from some big hands when we (a very tight ABC player) take this line and bet river.

sigh, i'm trying to read thru the hand but don't know the suits of the 8s which seems very important, if he can't have 8dXd it changes everything

also, don't listen to anyone who says that betting the nuts is a mistake, they are just trolls, don't see anything wrong with the plan here except I would size down a little on the turn, we definitely want calls, c/c flop, then leading this turn seems perfectly fine, i would just size it down a little to target Qx rather than the back door FD

I am talking more from a theoretical standpoint, but I would argue that against the described main villain we would want to play a more theory based style rather than an exploitative style, as he seems like the type who is good enough to figure out when we are unbalanced and face up.


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This V is trying to exploit us by over-folding to our aggression.

By calling preflop, the only way we can exploit our V is by calling down with a hand we should normally be playing more aggressively postflop.

ez check. make it look like you are scared of the K. V most likely has some kind of missed straight draw. sucks is he has diamonds, because by checking to him on the river, we are calling all of his bets.

Which is why I would play my range in a way that him folding is a good thing for me.

You are also assuming that a preflop 3 bet gets through 100% of the time. If we get called in 1 or god forbid 2 spots we now have a bloated pot oop with a hand that plays poorly postflop as you mentioned. Literally the perfect spot to flat and try and spike a set.



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If a player has AA and I take a bet bet shove line against them on a 873r flop, they have to call the flop as you said, and they will almost always call the turn, and then I'm putting them to a decision on the river. And I can guarantee that some non-zero percentage of the time AA will be calling my shove.

The point being that if you lead into the original raiser and take initiative you are setting the price and guaranteeing yourself value, and if you start on the flop you actually keep your range quite wide.

I'm not saying it's black and white, I've check/called down with sets against players who turned their overpair faceup preflop and and let them take the bet/bet/shove line for me. But in this case given the described game dynamics, board texture and villain it makes sense to start putting money in on the flop, or like OP did on the turn.

But your range isn’t wide you have near-sets only betting into the field, so you’re only ‘guaranteeing yourself value’ bc you currently have a set (not an easy feat) against nut one pair. You are not considering your ‘wide’ range doesnt do this unless you’re accidentally bluffing or spewing 3 streets. You also don’t have to bet w a set when you can make more with a your whole range which often fits a different line.

Again, against idiots and with sets you can’t make a mistake outside of not putting as much in as you can, but not every 2-5 game you come across is going to operate this way. You just come across as wildly face up and betting amounts/taking lines that will just result in you coolering yourself when you get deep in real games and forcing opponents to take 0ev facing massive bets.

The bolded is really interesting, it would be great if you could elaborate.

Perceived image is super important as Garick mentioned. For instance it doesn't matter if you know your lead-out range is sets only, it only matters what the villain you're playing against thinks. There are some spots where I'm almost always going to have a nutted hand, but I still get called down light because people think I'm bluffing.

And fwiw I only used a set vs AA as a hypothetical case to illustrate that if our opponent has a hand and we have a better one we can use this line to make the most money. But they won't always have an overpair when we have a set, and sometimes we can lead with 8x, 9T etc and we'll take the pot down. But I wouldn't barrel off on the river with these hands unless I've played tons of hours with the player.

Just to clarify, I'm not saying we always need to lead out with sets and I understand that our hand could potentially look faceup. It's super game dependent and I agree you need to mix it up and take more passive lines when playing in some tougher games. But IMO in this particular game, on this board texture, and against this particular villain, controlling the action gives us a better chance to get more value from the hand.

OP said he's unknown to the rest of the table, and I've seen plenty of recs at 1-2 donk bet into a field with hands like A8, 65, 99, etc.

Or do you assume the rest of the table believes an unknown at 2-5 will only donk bet the flop with a monster?

I like the flop flat with this exact hand (we can just raise our other sets). You can put me in the "check turn" camp. Dont see how this Q on the turn hits us harder then everyone else. In fact, we now have a nut disadvantage since we can never have QQ and the original raiser can. Seems like a reasonable card for straight draws to barrel at. Let them do that. I probably check raise all in ott.
Also, ya, if Im villain 2 with AA or KK ott and get led into, I seriously consider folding and I would def fold if the villain is on the nitty side. This is just a fearless move by hero. If you are actually leading here in this exact spot with draws, then ok fine, but be honest. Honesty really is the key

sorry but it's patently ridiculous to say that leading the turn with 2 players interested is a mistake, the Q of diamonds seems like the perfect card to barrel

flop call seems good, leading turn seems good, so i like this line a lot, it's definitely the best way for value imho

the suits of our 8s matter tho, if we hold the 8 of diamonds we should be betting less to target straight draws and Qx, if we don't hold the diamond we can bet more to target 8dxd as well

river seems like a good spot to check/call

I appreciate the discussion and even with different views I see merit in a lot of different plays.

Result: I knew in my heart I should have bet $250 or just shoved but the back foot flush paralyzed me. I checked and would have snapped called anything, but V checked behind. And I honestly can’t remember if I had the 8d.

Certainly some players lead a weak ranges on flops, but when called they tend to shut down pretty quickly unimproved. Bet bet shove on 873r is just 87 min always in these games, usually, sizing tells the rest of the story. So I suppose it's better to say leading flop and continuing is just always nutted.

yeah probably so but i think the result is the same, he just decided not to try and bluff you because you have diamonds in your range here, all of your hands got there, so I think it's trying to peel blood from a turnip OTR and not worth a discussion because check is fine, he pretty much has a hand that has zero showdown value OTR and wouldn't have called anyway, people will bluff into you enough imo

WP

Reread the HH, Acanalpanama. Hero check/called flop.

Does that change your thoughts on the turn donk?

I believe I was responding to someone who wanted to donk flop and how that impacts everything.

My thoughts on turn donk remain vehemently in opposition. I have the strongest hand in my range 4 ways in a spot where I ck turn 100% of the time bc that line exactly fits my range. I have a so-far tightish PFR who may bet again, and a so-far-agro type otb who is also likely to put money in the pot (when checked to or as a caller/raiser facing a V2 barrell). Checking denies information to IP players (goes to perceived range too I guess that you guys were concerned about), snuffs out (semi)bluffs we want to see, and when bets go in I can raise turn w sets, and some freq of combo draws / SDs. When leading turn, you’ll get the raised eyebrows even from fish-types and the majority of calling ranges (awfully strong) facing our large turn donk (yes I know it’s not much relative to pot but it’s still $210) are going to have some reasonable frequency of bets when checked to anyway which means we can stack off. Even if it checks through (often a fantastic result for our range here), we still have all kinds of options depending on the river, from suck betting to over betting to checking again.

*Checking allows for (semi)bluffs/bets we want to see

Results?