Probably a pretty standard situation but would like to hear your thoughts on this hand:

1/2, hero just sat down with $250 and opens UTG to $10 with AKdd. Don’t know any of the other players well.

4 callers including the BB; pot $50.

Flop Ks 9h 7h. BB checks, hero bets $35, everyone folds except the BB. Pot $120.

Turn 6h, BB checks. Hero?



I elected to check behind (explanation in spoiler box above), river was 2h and BB leads out for $70. Pot is now $190. Hero?



Thoughts on the action I took?

Nice thought process. I play many hands like this.

Turn is decision to bet/fold. Or check and eval river. Mix up your play and do both.

Don't like sizing. Prefer a fold. But I know in game I would call. It is close.

I think this is close, but I'd fold. While it looks sort of bluffy, the problem is that BB won't generally have hands he wants to bluff with. He could have JT. I don't generally credit random LLSNL players with the capacity to turn bad made hands into bluffs, especially when it could easily look to him like you don't have very much. So I think your thought process is good but don't agree with the conclusion in this instance. I do call in "obvious bluffing" spots like this a fair amount, as they're the only spots where LLSNL players tend to overbluff.

pre & flop are fine

turn check good, im just looking to fold to any river bet basically

river i'd fold, we don't beat much and most players arent turning hands into bluffs here. if you call this river you fold 0% of your range and that is bad. you should have a good amount of flushes here anyway

I would check AhKx and AxKh ott fwiw

Bet/fold turn. If he raises he’s got you. You’re just giving a free card to the rest of his range which will have random ’s in it and missing value from Kx. Plus you open yourself to getting bluffed out OTR when turn goes x/x.

This.

I'd fold river.

Did not read spoilers.

Given the hand configuration, the BB should have a pretty wide range closing the action pre. Given this, I’d lean toward B/F turn, $60-65 or so. Yea, T8 gets there, maybe a sticky 76s, but there are numerous combos of KX/AhXx/TT to extract value from.

Hero could easily have a big heart in an UTG opening range. When the BB leads river for a <60% PSB, seems like they are looking for a call rather than bluffing. I’d fold.

Why in the world would you call river?

Because we only have to be correct 1 in 4 times. We have zero read. It is very close spot.

He can be bluffing with 9x, he could be value betting Kx. He may be bluffing. He may be awful and value betting 9x or any random pair.

This is our nut bluff catcher.

It's really not tho. The fact that your average 1/2 v closing the action pre getting 4:1 will have all 2pr, sets (not kk), straights and nut flush in range combined with the fact that ppl vastly under bluff rivers makes this a yawn fold. Once in a great while you fold the best hand here but no where near often enough to make this a call absent any reads.

Paying this off is a leak.

Yea after reading the comments, I think this was a bad FPS call. Without specifically knowing the opponent, this sort of bluff just isn't commonly seen at 1/2. I do think the 98, 78 type hands are possible up until the river, but you're right, the typical 1/2 player is not turning that into a bluff. I definitely overthought the river scenario.

Well I will admit I was wrong. I posted I thought it was fold, but would likely call.

After looking deeper at it. No way I am folding in this spot.

KX, and 10-J make up a majority of his range here. Sure he has flushes and some 2 pair combos and sets he didn't raise on flop. But we can at least dismiss some of those.

WTF are you talking about? Kx no heart and lol JT? Are we reading the same hh?

Standard 1/2 villain is calling all 16 combos of J10. You expecting them to fold that on flop?

Also they will be betting every Kx combo they have on river. Because I HAZ top pair syndrome.

If I was villain I know I would bet with Kx

gl with this thought process

What part?

Your average 1/2 player. Is calling $8 to win $50 with J10o.

Your average 1/2 player is betting this river with King. Where am I off?

Nevermind. Just realized it is 4 to flush.

Preflop and flop is good.

Turn I prefer a bet/fold. You say you're worried about getting x/raised off the best hand... but you're forgetting that this isn't a 10/20 NL game full of LAGs; this is a 1/2 NL game full of passive fish. It's important that you completely eradicate the fear of betting or raising for "I'm worried that they'll reraise me as a bluff and then force me to fold the best hand!" Because passive fish just don't do that.

River is easy fold as played. He has very few natural bluffs. Even if he has a busted straight draw, it will often have a heart to go with it. Your range is also uncapped on the river, since you could easily have checked back a heart on the turn.

b/f the turn or just fold the turn. You're beat here 90+% of the time.

I respectfully disagree. Maybe OP holds a bluff catcher in a 2/5 NL game or at higher stakes, but not in a 1/2 NL game against the average 1/2 NL player. They do not bluff the river nearly enough, in part because they probably realize that the average 1/2 NL player also finds it nearly impossible to lay down TPTK, even on a board with 4 suits of one kind and an OESD that came in on the turn. Just fold the river with your one-pair hand, and make it all back and then some the next time when the math holds up against someone too stubborn to lay down a draw.