2/3 no limit

Villain(600) hero covers

Hijack limps. Btn AJ raises to 16. Sb (villain) and hijack both calls

Flop (43): 6d 4c ad

Hijack bets 15. Hero raises to 80. SB calls. Hijack folds.

Turn (218): 6c
Villain check. Hero bet 170. Villain calls

River (558) 2h :
Villain bet 200. Hero???

things to consider villain is old man...he just won a huge pot making a big call trying to hit a 9 outter. And after he hit he said "I knew the jack was coming"

I think you definitely overplayed your hand. Can't really fold now but the river is not the relevant portion of the hand.

+1.... In 2000, you print money like this but today.... not so much.

You absolutely can fold here. I would probably raise smaller otf if i were to raise and bet less ott as well. You make it sound like old man will call regardless of bet size so maybe your sizing was perfectly fine. Most people do not take these types of lines otr with worse than AJ. Unless you have seen this villain do something that would suggest otherwise folding otr is perfectly fine.

We didn't really give the villain a good opportunity/reason to bluff. We showed strength and then v bet into us as the aggressor throughout the hand.

river is a clear call

flop raise is a bit too big imo, id go like 60 or 65 there

turn like 120-150 if betting unless you know V pays that price with his draws in which case wp

checking back turn is also an option, id like betting more with AQ/AK, but 6c is such a good card that i dont hate betting either.

Missing info on AJ suits,blockers to FD important.

You're beat here - While I understand people saying call the river, I would ask the question of: Would he call an all in over the top of the 200? I think the answer is yes based on the hand and if so, is he calling with something worse than AJ? No. I think you're beaten here...

Also, the flop raise is HUGE? Building a huge pot with top pair and a J kicker is an odd strategy. My question is why raise so big?

Are you trying to get them to fold? If so - you're turning your hand into a bluff on the flop. If you want value from worse hands such as draws, then you should be raising a lower amount. that way if someone did have a monster, they're going to be re-raising due to the draws and 3 in a pot.

I just think the whole think stinks and wouldn't be surprised if Villain had a crazy monster hand (the UTG check post flop would be weird for you or me with a great hand, but not for some old timer who thinks slow playing is always the way to riches haha!)

I can't imagine you are ever good here.

I'm cool with preflop.

Even though the board is drawy and this guy could be donking a draw small to give himself good odds, he could also be donking to "see where he's at" and manage a fold of a hand that is WB, plus he could also be getting super tricky and donking a monster. Overall, a raise on the flop starts bringing stacks into play (we'll only have ~$500 left in a ~$200 pot) in a SPR 13 pot, with a fairly face up hand (gee, I wonder if we have Ax?), which is not something I want to do. I'd simply flat and see what develops on the turn in position.

On the turn we're continuing with the theme of building a massive pot with a fairly small hand (i.e. we could bet smaller).

By the river, we've certainly charged the draws (if he was on one), but now we've built a massive pot with just TPMK (which should be very face up). Could he play AT- this way? We're getting good odds and probably (???) can't pass up on them at this point.

Overall, I think we built too big of a pot with too weak of a hand, all in the name of "charging a draw" (which he only has part of the time and will hit only a small percentage of the time when he does).

ETA: Totally missed the fact that HJ donker wasn't the flop caller and instead it was SB who took a big one to the face; less in love with our turn bet at all now. Also leans river closer to a fold, especially since this could easily be a bigger Ax simply going for value (which flatted the preflop and flop raises).

Gmeh,imoG

Flop raise is huge, and once the SB check/calls, there's a very good chance you're beat. If I was raising flop, I'd go smaller, say $50 or so. Don't want to let SB in cheap, but don't want to raise such that HJ is only calling with hands you beat.

As played, I'd check behind turn. We're letting draws see a free card, but that's worth it to me instead of playing TPMK for 200 BB stacks. Once we x/r flop big, I check behind turns and snap call if he leads river for a reasonable size.

As played, I guess I fold river since it's hard to see what we beat. Any reads on SB? Is he even capable of turning a missed draw into a bluff here, and if so is he doing it 25% of the time? X/c flop, x/c turn, lead river is a very strong line. Don't hate a river call either, but we're in this spot because our sizing was so big on earlier streets.

The villain's river bet range is probably a lot smaller than his calling range, which would scare the heck out of me

Almost every draw bricked, A4s got counterfeited OTT, we lose to 44 66 A6 maybe 46s maybe like 53cc 53dd and a weirdly played AQ or AK maybe.. if Villain can't have enough draws here that he realizes won't win at showdown for us to be good just 20% of the time then the focus of discussion should not be on the river.

Unless the turn bet is intended to be a bluff, the logic for betting turn (presumably that more worse hands than hands which beat us are going to call) dictates we must call here.

There is something to be said for the fact that V didn't shove river when it's much less than a PSB to do so and his value range is so nutted, as well as the fact that he might c/c a lot of his value hands since it looks if he checks we are going to go 3 streets with most of our range (big Ax, let us barrel off if we missed a draw ourself) so we can somewhat discount his value % when he leads river (not a huge amount because lollive players would still be unreasonably scared of us checking through, but enough that is worth considering), and we don't discount his bluff % at all because obviously if he has air here then he needs to just lead if he wants to win the pot because stacks aren't deep enough to c/r etc.

At any rate we're getting 3.8 to 1, V is getting nearly 3 to 1 on a steal, if we're even thinking of folding anything but missed draws then we're misplaying prior streets something ridiculous.

Disagree. Based off description of v, hero makes it sound like v could call with worse up until the river. Getting 3.8 to 1 otr only matters if villain is betting the river with worse than AJ sometimes. IME even the worst villains won't be there with worse. Saying we have to call Sounds very wrong to me.

i would expect him to have a hand he likes here or is betting because he is going to call anyway, so a bluff is out in most cases. i wouldnt be surprised if he had 5,3 in his hand or a 6..

You can figure out the big mistake in the hand by working backwards.

a) You raised flop to 80,
b) you bet nearly pot on the turn,
c) you got very good ~4:1 odds to call river in a > 200BB pot,
d) .... and it's a terrible spot.

Spoiler: Flat flop.