Originally Posted by dgiharris
Based on the few hands you've posted, I have a possibly different take on this.
My take is that V might just be a really good player. From that perspective, you might need to play level 3 against him.
For the most part, at LLSNL our play will be level 2 as most of our villains are Level 1 or quasi level 2 or bad level 2 or predictable level 2 players.
However, on rare occasion we will happen across a really good level 2 or competent level 3 player.
The consequence of beating/crushing LLSNL is that for the most part, our play ends up being fairly exploitable. I would argue that if our play isn't exploitable at this level then we are likely both leaving money on the table and lighting money on fire. So, our play should be fairly exploitable as seen from the POV of a very competent player. And as such, when we run up against a very competent villain at LLSNL he should be able to exploit the hell out of us since our play is mainly geared to crushing the donks and terribad rec fish.
The counter to this is that when we are in a hand against said villain, we have to ascend to Level 3 and play specifically vs this villain. This will include asking the question "What is villain trying to get me to do?"
What I'm trying to say is best articulated using one of your hand examples and comparing that hand to two separate situations. Situation 1, typical rec-fish villain. Situation 2, our Level 3 villain.
Situation 1
Hero raises from $15 from MP with JJ, V calls from SB, heads up.
Flop($30) A 5 5
V chks, Hero c-bets $20, V c/r to $45, Hero???
Vs the typical rec fish, this is a super easy fold. Rec fish has a 5 most of the time. Now, the mistake a typical thinking player would make would be, "Well, he can't have the five because he should want to get value and c/r'ing with a 5 when I have an Ace in my range is stupid..." Be that as it may, that is how rec-fish play their super strong hands, they c/r. In this spot, I'd expect most rec fish to c/r with a 5 and on rare occasion a AJ kinda hand to "see where they are at..."
Situation 2, vs level 3 villain who is exploiting us.
Flop($30) A 5 5
V chks, Hero bets $20, V c/r to $45, Hero???
In this case I expect V to have air or underpairs the vast majority of the time. He knows our range is Ace heavy and he knows that we know that at this level a c/r by typical villains is super strong. So since he knows that we know a c/r is super strong he expects us to fold. Since he's not trying to extract value out of us by taking a line that he knows we will fold to, we can deduce he is bluffing most the time here. Only way he would c/r here with a 5 is if we have been a calling station. But if we have been a competent thinking player then he knows a c/r here will fold us out majority of the time, and if he is trying to fold us out he is bluffing and not extracting value.
The natural tendency when playing against an opponent who may seem to be owning us is to "tighten up" and "wait for a big hand" and then get stacks in. However, you just aren't going to be able to do that against a thinking player who has a read on you unless you colddeck him with a cooler. To be clear, tightening up and waiting for a big hand isn't -EV and is an adjustment that will stop the bleeding, however you end up sacrificing a lot of EV as well as your ability to run the table. I honestly think a better adjustment is to table change. Otherwise, you become a 8/4 nit that is nut peddling and that is losing all sorts of opportunities to play pots with terribad players.
The better adjustment is that you adjust to his adjustment. When we raise he is going to expect us to c-bet right? So, he should be raising our c-bets fairly often because he knows we are c-betting. So we adjust to this by either lowering our c-betting frequency or increasing our double barrel frequency.
When we are raising from EP or MP he is going to assign us a range of TT+, AK, AQs and if he calls our range he is likely going to call it with 22+, SCs, S1Gs trying to flop gin. When the board is lowball garbage it favors him because our range is top heavy. So we adjust to this by adding SCs and S1Gs to our EP/MP raising range (10% of our EP raising range should have some SCs and S1Gs in it). Thus, a small percentage of our range will be completely invisible to this villain and when we whiff but the flop is top heavy (and we are heads up) we can still rep and outplay villain post flop, however when the board is middling/low ball and we connect we can stack villain with a hand he doesn't put us on.
Basically, we have to adjust to villain's adjustment against us. We should be thinking about most of our engagements against this villain and looking for trends that we can exploit or looking at how villain has been exploiting us. Has he been floating us and then shoving river against us 75% of the time? If so, odds are we need to station him on rivers no matter how scary the river is. Has he been c/r us on turn and we've been folding 95% of the time? Has he been betting 2/3 pot with his strong hands that beat us at showdown?
The last thing to caution you against is that memory bias and selective recall is probably influencing how you see the Villain. It could be that he isn't splashing around as much as you think and that against you he just happens to always have a good hand (this is true if you've only had a few engagements in a short period of time). The 44 hand he had makes me think he is fairly aggressive and splashy, however, that may not be the case if he was up against a fit-n-fold scared money rec fish. I think this is probably the hardest aspect of Level 3 play imo, and that is really being able to dial in your villain's tendencies, thought processes, and competency level. It's more than just whipping at your brass balls and dropping them on the table and channeling your inner Ivey and Durrr. It requires you to accurately assess your villain and see the hands from his standpoints.
Sorry to write a meandering book. Just my quick thoughts on the subject.
GL...