So, as the title says, I came across a spot today. Just wanted to confirm, and note what I learned from this hand. Lately I've been controlling variance in my game better and have seen more consistent and solid results and feel more comfortable now with my BR despite having much less than in the past. Basically I've been just giving all big bets more credit in LL.


This hand I open from MP w AA to $12

One call, to villain in blinds ~500BB effective w me, who is a pretty big fish. Has been calling large raises with the likes of Q6o OOP and continuing on through hands getting terrible prices w naked flush draws and gutshots. Has also been seen to be shutting down on rivers unimproved Who calls.

Pot ~$35 Flop K J 7
Vil checks
Hero Bets $25
Folds to Vil who calls

Pot $85 Turn K J 7 8
Vil checks
Hero Bets $50
Vil Calls

Pot $185 River K J 7 8 5
Vil Bets $100


Now I'll go ahead and say that despite what I said above, I did end up calling in this spot and being beat. When I thought back about it though, the only hands I really beat here are AK (which I have blocked, let alone did not raise out of the blind, KQ (which would've had to take this weird line out of the blinds) or Q 10 (which I generally expect to shut down, maybe only bluffing here 50% of the time at the very most. I also know here that all flopped or turned 2 pair combos are live in his range. Therefore, before sets, straights and back door flushes I also have to include KJ, K7, K8, J7, J8 and 78 in his range. In the midst of these combos and maybe some naked bluffs I'm only getting a little under 2-1 on my call. Almost no one in these games, and certainly not any player that we have to be pegged as even somewhat sane, ever bluffs this much here.
Simply, my hand is absolute trash here, and next time I win $100 more.

KQ wouldn't surprise me, but you are going to see a lot of hands that have you beat here, so I like a fold on the river.

Given your read on villain, I think you should be betting larger on the flop and turn.

You're beat most of the time when they donk river for 50+bb

YOu said it best OP. Not enough in his VB/bluffing ranges to justify a call. Lot's of stupid nonsense in his > AA range.

mpethy has a thread on this somewhere, I think its in the "best of" section. He has a huge hand history database and is able to quote specific figures on how often this is the nuts (or, what the villain perceives to be the nuts). iirc hero is beat something like 80% of the time here. Thread is definitely worth looking up. Personally I think it's worthy of being called the "mpethy theorem."

Folding here is exploitable, of course. But everything is exploitable. The reason is because at that level, an unbalanced exploitable style is what makes the money. The key to 1/2 is that the vast, vast majority of players have no idea how to exploit a TAG playing style. Those that do would just as soon change seats than tango with another TAG.

Your bet sizing is fine, but Tucco makes an interesting point. It's doubtful that villain can be aware of a bet-sizing tell, or if he can that he can read it right, or if he even cares cuz he's here to gamble. So there's a great temptation to just bomb the flop, especially considering how deep you are. OTT, I dunno. Board is starting to look pretty wet.

Great post. This is one of the major leaks in my game I managed to plug. A lot of the time you out level yourself when fish donk lead later streets thinking it has to be a bluff because playing the hand that way for value is just so bad. But the fish mindset is basically "Slowplay flop I don't want to lose him. Slowplay turn I don't want him to fold. MUST BET RIVER BECAUSE I HAZ HAND."

Your bet sizing is fine, ...

Strongly disagree. For this Villain PSB on flop and turn. V likes to call with weak hands.

standard if river is folded

virtually nobody (esp passive fish as noted by op) is turning weak made hands/air into bluffing the backdoor flush since obv that about never works

and villain showing up with kq is happening about .002% of the time imo

Im not folding here. Auto call
This is far from the perfect place to fold aces. I can think of a ton of rivers that would make me consider a fold, not a brick 5.

Your also getting nearly 3:1 on a call
If you are folding here that is way too nitty

Dont put results in the op next time.

So it is 100 to win 285 you are almost getting 3 to 1 on your money bet more otf and OTT call now he most likely has some kind of pair or a busted draw

5s is not a brick when a lot of the combo and backdoor draws get there, along with weird two pairs and the double-gutter 9T got there on the turn (even though they are usually c/r it). I would have gone $75 on the turn to charge more for the draws, and if raised on turn or lead into big on river, it's probably a fold then.

folding or calling are both fine

timing is also key here, if he insta bets i might be forced to call

I would have bet bigger on the turn as well. Still not folding river as played though

Just simply the line V takes screams that your beat here. I do still get stubborn on certain boards tho. This board is not one of these tho. i think he almost always has 2pair +