I have made the decision in live NL 1/2 to pretty much call every pair in hopes of catching trips, since the play is generally terrible and it will hit 1 out of every 8 times on average and when it does I will often win a huge pot/stack.

Here's the situation.

Big boob lady (played pretty solid in general) raised pre-flop to $15 from EP. I smooth call with red 7s. Old bag in the BB smooth calls for $15.

Flop is:

7810

Old bag fired up $20. She literally looks like your grandma with the Christmas sweater and everything and has been playing too many hands. She has about $90 left in her stack. Big boob lady calls for $20. I shove in for my $240 and have them both out chipped.

Old bag snap calls and big boob lady thinks and folds. I proudly show my trips and she shows trip 10s. I figured her for 2 pair or K 10 or some trash. Was shocked she had the trip 10s. It held up and I paid her off. I fired up a nice hand m'am and that was that.

But, any thoughts on that play? I know big boob lady had an over pair (literally and figuratively) - turns out it was aces, and I think grandma just lucked into her top set.

Math geeks, its 100-1 that she has a bigger set on the flop then me, right?

Sometimes you just lose, right? Thanks

It's a set... That's what you want to flop ... A set.

Move to BBV

Then...

So... Cool?

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When old people donk or raise you, they generally have the nuts (if you don't) has been my experience.

Better play is probably raise to charge the draws out there, she probably shoves and we can then decide if we believe her or not

But yes this is an unfortunate cooler.

While statistics are nice, there are two assumptions that people always ignore.
1. Central Limit: We ASSUME these stats tend toward this % over infinite observations
2. Normality: We ASSUME these % hold true in every observation before infinity

Or we can say ufck it and call it variance. That's all I can say without getting yelled at again for my statistics philosophy.

sorry ur set lost b

Definitely post more and read the stickies. You'll get better. As for the hand, calling blindly pairs pf is a good way to lose money, even at 1/2. You guaranteed by shoving on the flop that you'd win the minimum and lose the maximum on this hand.

FWIW, "old bag" and "big boobs" doesn't give much of a read.

I actually seen the words "old bag" and decided to fold before i read the HH.

Sorry, V, I closed the thread because it tilts me when people call a set trips and vice versa. Really, it's only the reason I closed it. HH was pretty epic because it had boobs.