3/5 spread early in a session. Hero is a regular with a pretty tight image. V is reasonably solid but absolutely capable of making moves. Haven't played much together. He just rebought after getting felted and is down a little bit from the rebuy amount. He has $370. I have him covered.

I pick up 9 9 UTG and raise to 25. Only V calls on the button.

Flop:8 10 J

Hero makes it 35. V raises to 85. Hero?

fold.

ifthe straight comes in and hes good, then he never paying you off.

Dirty hand reading says this flop smashes his PF range cause he just called BTN and not 3!. usualy those are medium strength hands and this is a medium strength hand flop.

If its HU, Ill check this back to good players OOP. If its bad players ill lead.

I am just going to fold here tbh, it's probably exploitable, but if we are ahead it won't be by much, and if we are behind we are likely way behind looking to make a straight that is the dummy end anyway. Fold and move on...
Not necessarily a mandatory c-bet with 99 on this board Imo either, check calling flop would be OK, seeing what develops on later streets..

x/c flop

AP, call

Im assuming you are ranging him more on hands like FDs and 2 broadways?

Is this cause of his raise size?

if we call, what is our plan on turn and river?

Im curious too.seems like shoving is better then calling.

X/f turns unimproved. Price is too good to not peel flop, I imagine he slows down on clubs if he's value raising flop. Our 9 is also most likely good.

Anybody think shoving makes sense or just spew? I block all the straight outs and so I don't think I'm drawing dead there. I think he would likely re raise 10s or Jacks and so my set outs are probably good (unless he has some random Q like JQ). Size also suggested this could be a try to figure out where I am raise with AJ or flush draws.

its spew to me personally

cbet is ok but once raised am going to fold here a lot as you are drawing to a straight and it is doubtful you get paid off even if you do hit

Shove or fold. We are OOP and stacks are short. Hero will get zero value if we hit any of our 'outs'.

Shove or fold. If your BR is small then probably fold and find better spots to get your money in.

Let's math.

We're almost exactly 33% to make our SD by the river. It might not be good, but a 9 might be or we might actually be ahead but let's ignore all that for a first approximation.

If we shove, we're betting 310 to win 430.
Using the straight draw, our equity is 33% * 430 - 67% * 310 = -66.

So we need enough folds to make up for that.

With 120 in the pot now, we need to solve for F * 120 + (1 - F) * -66 = 0, which works out to imply F (the folding percentage) = 66/186 or roughly 1/3.

So V needs to fold to our shove about 1/3 the time in order for shoving to be breakeven. That's unlikely; raise/folds aren't common. The other factors don't swing the decision much. We might have some other outs, but he might have a flush draw, which would take away some.

How about calling? We're not likely to get a free card, so we're worse than a 4:1 underdog on the next card. We can't really hope to get much additional action with a 4-straight on the board, so implied odds aren't helping much. We need to call 50 for a 170 pot, so not really close there.

Shoving doesn't make sense. Calling doesn't make sense. We should do the other thing.