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A pair and a flush draw A pair and a flush draw

09-24-2018 , 10:42 AM
Cash game 1-2
Hero - $400
Villain - $257.

98 I raised to $14 on the button.
I get two callers
Flop
95k
Both players check
I bet $22 - (I should have bet bigger. Probably Mistake 1)
1 player folds and the other villain check-raises me to $62.
I decide to just call (Probably mistake number 2 because I know the villain is not going to slow down.)
Turn J
He goes all-in for about $181

Hero?

Last edited by Garick; 09-24-2018 at 12:52 PM. Reason: terminology
A pair and a flush draw Quote
09-24-2018 , 12:52 PM
Welcome, OP.

Just so you know, your bet on the flop is just a bet, not a raise, since there isn't already a bet out there. Your use of raise could confuse folks, so I edited your OP.

Some information on your Vs would be helpful. Also, did Vs limp-call, or were they in the blinds? I assume limp-call? I would probably just overlimp this speculative hand and take a flop with position if there were already 2 limpers, though a raise is OK to.

On the flop you bet $22 into ~$42 (depending on rake). Seems like fine sizing.
Once he c/r, I'm not folding a pair and FD here, and since almost no-one has a c/r and then fold range at 1/2, I don't see a point in re-raising. We wont have fold equity, and he is likely ahead now. We should probably call for implied odds.

As played to the turn, this card doesn't do anything good for us. Pot is about $165 before his shove, and if you call your $181 will represent 34.28% of the $528 pot. If we assume he has 2-pair (KJ or K9s) or a set (55 or 99), we have 38.58% equity and a slightly profitable call.

EDIT: This is wrong. I messed up the equity calc somehow, and we actually only have 21.12% equity and a clear fold. Thanks for catching that, ybyangben.

Last edited by Garick; 09-24-2018 at 05:52 PM. Reason: Correction
A pair and a flush draw Quote
09-24-2018 , 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Welcome, OP.

Just so you know, your bet on the flop is just a bet, not a raise, since there isn't already a bet out there. Your use of raise could confuse folks, so I edited your OP.

Some information on your Vs would be helpful. Also, did Vs limp-call, or were they in the blinds? I assume limp-call? I would probably just overlimp this speculative hand and take a flop with position if there were already 2 limpers, though a raise is OK to.

On the flop you bet $22 into ~$42 (depending on rake). Seems like fine sizing.
Once he c/r, I'm not folding a pair and FD here, and since almost no-one has a c/r and then fold range at 1/2, I don't see a point in re-raising. We wont have fold equity, and he is likely ahead now. We should probably call for implied odds.

As played to the turn, this card doesn't do anything good for us. Pot is about $165 before his shove, and if you call your $181 will represent 34.28% of the $528 pot. If we assume he has 2-pair (KJ or K9s) or a set (55 or 99), we have 38.58% equity and a slightly profitable call.
If you know you have a profitable turn call, why not stick it in on the flop and maximize whatever fold equity may exist?
A pair and a flush draw Quote
09-24-2018 , 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick

As played to the turn, this card doesn't do anything good for us. Pot is about $165 before his shove, and if you call your $181 will represent 34.28% of the $528 pot. If we assume he has 2-pair (KJ or K9s) or a set (55 or 99), we have 38.58% equity and a slightly profitable call.

You are calculating H’s equity as it was on the flop, but this is on the turn and H has only
A pair and a flush draw Quote
09-24-2018 , 05:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ninefingershuffle
If you know you have a profitable turn call, why not stick it in on the flop and maximize whatever fold equity may exist?
Because I don't really expect to have any, he might slow down, we won't have the odds if the turn pairs the board, and frankly I didn't think we'd have the odds on the turn until I ran the numbers, but...

Quote:
Originally Posted by ybyangben
You are calculating H’s equity as it was on the flop, but this is on the turn and H has only
I seem to have effed the calc up. Now I'm getting 21.212% equity and we aren't getting the right price.

Not sure what I entered wrong, but it makes sense, as we have just a touch over 9 outs against that range. It wasn't the flop equity that I figured wrong before, though, as that's about 43%. No idea what I fat-fingered.
A pair and a flush draw Quote
09-24-2018 , 07:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Pot is about $165 before his shove, and if you call your $181 will represent 34.28% of the $528 pot.
I realize you corrected the equity calc but this looks wrong as well. Hero has to call $181 to win $346 (165 + 181). His own $181 isn't figured into the total pot. Unless I've been doing this wrong my entire poker career, his pot odds are 346/181 which is about 1.9-1 (2:1 is a PSB and this is slightly more than PS).

I just realized it's the same % wise but IMO the way you presented the calc is misleading. Not trying to argue for no reason here. Please correct/clarify as needed.
A pair and a flush draw Quote
09-24-2018 , 09:33 PM
Pot odds and percents are just two ways to figure the same thing. I prefer to use percentage, because that is how I figure equity (chance of hitting outs, etc.), and I don't like switching back and forth. Using percentage all the time lets me compare apples to apples.
A pair and a flush draw Quote
09-24-2018 , 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Pot odds and percents are just two ways to figure the same thing. I prefer to use percentage, because that is how I figure equity (chance of hitting outs, etc.), and I don't like switching back and forth. Using percentage all the time lets me compare apples to apples.
Fair enough and good point. I think I was just put off by the way you got to the pot odds %. I don't think I've ever seen anyone include the bet in the pot total like that to arrive at percentage. I gotta admit it's clever.
A pair and a flush draw Quote
09-24-2018 , 11:24 PM
Yeah, it's easy enough to actually do at the table. Just divide the amount you're looking at putting in by what the total pot will be, and that tells you what percentage your call would be of the pot, and thus what equity you need.
A pair and a flush draw Quote
09-25-2018 , 02:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Welcome, OP.

Just so you know, your bet on the flop is just a bet, not a raise, since there isn't already a bet out there. Your use of raise could confuse folks, so I edited your OP.

Some information on your Vs would be helpful. Also, did Vs limp-call, or were they in the blinds? I assume limp-call? I would probably just overlimp this speculative hand and take a flop with position if there were already 2 limpers, though a raise is OK to.

On the flop you bet $22 into ~$42 (depending on rake). Seems like fine sizing.
Once he c/r, I'm not folding a pair and FD here, and since almost no-one has a c/r and then fold range at 1/2, I don't see a point in re-raising. We wont have fold equity, and he is likely ahead now. We should probably call for implied odds.

As played to the turn, this card doesn't do anything good for us. Pot is about $165 before his shove, and if you call your $181 will represent 34.28% of the $528 pot. If we assume he has 2-pair (KJ or K9s) or a set (55 or 99), we have 38.58% equity and a slightly profitable call.

EDIT: This is wrong. I messed up the equity calc somehow, and we actually only have 21.12% equity and a clear fold. Thanks for catching that, ybyangben.
It was a limp-call on both players. I have history with the villain that jammed on me. The villain rarely slows down after the check-raise and after putting that amount of money in the pot. I called to hit on the turn and if not I am folding to his All-in (I knew he was going to do this). The problem is should I call the turn knowing that information? He is going to slow down (100%) if I hit my flush anyway.
A pair and a flush draw Quote

      
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