Villain is an old man, has been playing tight preflop, not putting in much money postflop. Has yet to 3bet till this hand.

Hero: Young guy, sat down recently, just won a large hand bluffing two streets with a gutshot+fd in position when checked to by the preflop raiser and backdooring two pair, I overbet river and got called by an overpair.

$950 effective

I raise AK UTG to $25, villain 3bets me to $55 from MP, folds back to me and I call.

Flop: JTT ($115)

I check, villain quickly bets $100, I call

His flop bet is very large for the board texture, and we can probably drop the hand right here. However, two overcards + gutshot + nut no pair, I'd rather continue with AK here then QQ a decent % of the time (villain does not have any non set/quads Js or Ts in his range). I glanced at my watch and we're in the first half of the face, so we called.

Turn: 8 ($315)

I check, villain bets $100 fairly quickly with a slight hitch, as if he wasn't sure if he should

I raise to $250, villain calls

I don't expect villain to fold any hand we lose to here, however I expect him to realize how strong this min-ish raise is and fold to our river bet a whole lot. At this point I range him at TT+, maybe AQ/AK which he folds to the check/raise on the turn.

River: 8 ($815)

I go all in for $500

PRE: im not really sure, my guess is that getting 3-1 is probably okay to continue with

FLOP: Id probably dump the hand as we have a ton of weak/dirty/dominated draws, alot of our cards we can continue OTT with get barreled (hearts)

OTT we have a tarnished image, against a guy who has a super strong range. we need barreling the river to work at an incredibly high % to c/r this turn profitably and my guess is that it just doesnt.

OTR we can probably just exploitatively have a value only range

I don't think you are deep enough by the river to get him off most overpairs. If you had $700 behind I think it is much more likely to work. This is one of those hands where V thinks he's beat but calls anyway out of frustration.

Still, once you raise turn this is what we've committed to so I guess we try it.

I'm trying to get it clear in my head what you are repping....

You raised UTG and smooth-called at 3bet from a tighty. Okay... so you could have AK/AQs/TT+ and probably not AA. You check call JTTr... so maybe he (erroneously removes AK/AQ).

You check/raise the turn smallish. That still leaves JJ/TT I guess. I doubt KK/QQ raise.

So you bomb river repping the 4 combos (that flopped a boat or quads). He's looking more and more like AA (and possibly as low as QQ). I guess if he's tight he should give it up (albeit he's getting great odds). I still don't like it and would have folded OTF.

This post has me thinking if hypothetically we were deeper should we be 2x potting river with TT/JJ and 2 combos of AKs

Congrats on bluffing the old guy off his aces. It isn't going to happen often enough to be worth putting in nearly 200BB on a bluff. I'd normally expect him to call on a blank river after calling the turn raise.

Your typical OMC has to wait about 7 hours to get a hand they will 3bet preflop i.e. AA. Having held out that long to get aggressive preflop, they are not keen to fold post. I setmine these guys instead of trying to bluff them.

So... why would you want to bluff a strong range in general we want to be bluffing capped ranges which will most likely always get through or ranges which have a small value range.

Do you think villain is going to be hero-calling here or over-folding here given his tendencies?
If you think he is going to be hero-calling here more often with like Jx+ then why can't we just wait for JJ and stack him in the same spot by just x-raising like 4x pot and GII lol...

^You see what i'm saying try to play exploitatively vs. this old man TAG... who prolly won't ever counter exploit you/adjust for doing this...

I think if i were to bluff here i would need to have a better bluff like KQ or 98. AK is meh, + our 2 over cards are not even outs.

I think the most important thing is his tendencies, then come our line/our perceived range + his value range etc...

Lol 7 hours fk that.