I never mentioned anything about the nuts at all. This hand has nothing to do with the nuts. We have a completely average strength hand. It's nowhere near the nuts. Both other hands could have more equity than ours.

Whenever you're thinking of value-betting you should:
1. Have a clear idea of what second-best hands you're expecting to get value from.
2. Decide what's the largest bet that those second-best hands will call.

It's not that we shouldn't be cbetting at all. It's that JcTc is one of the very worst c-betting hands in our range. We don't have enough equity to get called by worse. We're way too deep to want to get stacks in; it'd be totally different if we were in a tournament 25 big blinds deep. We have way too strong a hand to throw it away by turning it into an out-right bluff.

You can value-bet if you can list second-best hands that will happily call if you bet. Overpairs or better are obvious value-bets.

You can balance that with hands that you'd otherwise have to fold.

JdTd is a perfect bluffing hand, far far better than this hand. If we get raised, we're happy to fold. We have outs to the nuts, and a bunch of cards (diamonds) would allow us to barrel.

There's a bunch of hands that are less perfect bluffs like Ts5s or Jh9h.

To me it's as simple as: We're in position with a hand that there's no reason to bet. If someone else was the pre-flop raiser, they had better than jack high, and they gave us a free card they'd be making a huge financial mistake; they'd be costing themselves money. Not taking a free card is just as huge a mistake even though we are the pre-flop raiser.

I listed many reasons to bet in my post a few up. How do you respond to those? We fold out many better hands, and some worse can call. The very nature of a semibluff is that it works both as a bluff and for value--you don't necessarily know which end is which at the time you bet.

After getting X/R on the flop, I think it's pretty close between a fold and a shove.

I probably 3-bet jam.

How can you justify the idea that JdTd is a good c-bet and JcTc is not?

JcTc always has MUCH more hand equity on the flop than JdTd. You cannot say that c-betting JdTd is +EV but doing so with JcTc isn't great... of course it's great. If JdTd is a profitable c-bet, then JcTc will be substantially better - you already have a monster draw on the flop, and you can also barrel some turn cards... yet you want to check with JcTc and c-bet with JdTd with the plan to barrel turn 20% of the time you turn a FD?

I'm not sure that makes sense.

First, I would not c-bet this flop with JdTd. That's spew.

Second, barreling turns with JdTd is even worse spew. You don't have enough hand equity - people aren't folding enough because they're peeling with clubs, OESDs, pairs+, etc. Further, seemingly good barreling cards will hit ranges a bit too often to barrel without better hand equity. For example, villains will call A9s on the flop with the OESD. You might think a turn A is a good barreling card... but it gives villain a top pair they're never folding. Same is true for other over cards. You also can't feel great about barreling pairing cards 8d and 7d. That doesn't mean barreling is always bad... but like I said, we need more hand equity to take that kind of line - of course, JcTc has that hand equity. JdTd does not.

With JdTd, the 9c is not clean. Jc and Tc are worthless. Semi-bluffing two streets on boards where villains don't fold often enough with a hand that has so little hand equity that you basically have 3 clean outs isn't going to be profitable.

With JcTc, getting people to fold Ax, Kx, Qx, 22, 33, etc., is a good outcome. For sure, you can achieve the same outcome with JdTd. But you can NOT rely simply on getting folds when you c-bet because people aren't folding enough on this texture. A c-bet with a low equity hand is -EV. With JcTc, you want whatever folds you can get (and actually you will get a few more than with JdTd, because you block flush draws when you hold two clubs), and that provides some of your profit. When you get called, you always have excellent equity except in the rare circumstance someone has a better flush draw. That said, we still have 31% equity vs AcQc. Only a hand that also blocks our other outs - like Ac9c - is big trouble for us, and we have around 18% equity vs. that hand. But against many strong hands, we're doing great... we have 45% equity vs. two pair 87, 46% vs. 99, etc. With JcTc, the combination of hand equity and fold equity (value and semi-bluff equity) makes the flop a profitable c-bet.

I could see an argument for checking with JcTc because our fold equity is low... but I think our hand equity is so great that it's a c-bet for sure.

OP, I spent more time responding to the c-bet discussion than looking at your hand... pretty confident I would call the raise. I think you have almost no fold equity with a 3-bet. Call the raise, getting 2.4:1 is quite good, there's nearly 4x the call size left in stacks; play the turn in position, let's see what happens.

The fact that a smallish check raise is enough to get us to think about folding our hand is a great example of why checking behind is a great play.

Think about it, most of our edge in Low stakes comes from 2 main reasons 1) making big hands and going to valuetown on opponents that cant fold marginal hands. 2) bluffing with ATC against weak tight opponents with super narrow ranges and obvious bet sizing tells.

In this hand, if we get it in on the flop we are really just flipping a coin or even an underdog to our opponent... How is this profitable? If our read on the villain is that he is super agro, likes to c/r, etc. why don't we wait until we make our hand before we start shoveling money in the pot?

Semi-bluffing on the turn is a much better spot. If it checks around you can be much more confident that you wont be check-raised and blown off of your hand, since any villain would bet the turn if they had strong holdings. Also, we can use our position to re-raise an opponent who makes a weakfish bet, giving us the opportunity to steal the dead money in the pot but also building a pot if we do hit, and setting up a river bluff against an opponent who misses their draw on the river.

Also, the reason why betting with j10dd is better here is because we are using our positional advantage to fold out weaker hands. We are making money from a garbage hand that beats our opponents purely based on the power of position. In some ways, it's better than being dealt AA, once the pot goes muti-way, since we get to turn our "garbage" hand into representing AA. If we get c/r then we can happily fold knowing we ran into a monster and our hand sux. If we actualy held AA, we start running into the guessing games and 50/50 spots that don't make us much money in the long run.

The only reason why c-betting on the flop with J10cc in this spot is +EV is because c- betting ATC in position against two opponents is +EV as long as our opponents aren't tricky. The OP mentioned that one of our opponents is capable of c/raising. This alone should make us more cautious when he checks to us on the flop. Let's take a free card and value town him once we make our hand.

Its the same reason why you just call in the BB w/ 55 against a loose/agro fish that open raises a lot. Could you 3bet and take down the pot? probably. But wouldn't it be better to hit your set on the flop and then go for his stack?

Fair enough and well stated. From context where I think we differ is that I consider this an incredible hand to bet as a semi bluff (as opposed to value as I might've said earlier).

My reasoning being that first, getting the third bet in w JTcc here would not bother me vs Vils range.
Second, and more importantly, in the games I play I think an incredible amount of my overall profit comes from 2 and 3 barreling w such hands. Not because I figure to always be called by worse, but instead by hands that don't have a plan against continued aggression or are just way too weak to face it a lot of the time. Because of that principle I want the pot bigger otf, (being careful that my image is agressiv;but not complete dog ****) whenever possible as we'll have higher returns later when they're forced to fold.
This type of hand that has a strong backup is exactly up my alley in terms of adding as many hands as possible to the list where we build a pot that we simply plan on eventually being able to take down.

I see where you're coming from now and agree w what you're saying. I think maybe we play in a little bit different games. The first part of my game plan generally is to scout weak passive players, and a large part of my hourly is derived from exploiting the leaky tendency desribed above against them.

I am struggling to understand the overall logic for playing this hand from the beginning, so please help me fill in the blanks. It folds to us in late position and we are staring at a $3 pot. We decide to raise to $13 with JcTc because....?

IMO We are certainly an underdog in terms of equity against their calling ranges, we cant expect both opponents to fold often enough for a $13 steal attempt to be directly profitable, and their calling ranges contain several hands that dominate our hand which will lead to several nightmarish spots postflop. Our only real advantage is having position on these opponents. If there were 2 weak players in the blinds who would pay off with worse a lot of the time or fold to cbets a lot of the time then maybe this play would be acceptable, but against the villains that you described this entire situation is very high variance and very close to 0EV (possibly even -EV) no matter how you try to maneuver postflop. Bet with a logical purpose, if this were the middle stages of a tournament and the blinds & antes were getting high then this play is standard, in this particular scenario against these villains this play seems pretty ambitious. Hope this made sense, first post in a long time lol

I am 3 off the button. I never open/limp. It's weak & in a 1/2 game, it's pointless with a $6 rake & $1 BB. You end up winning a $44 dollar pot played HU vs. the BB. The SB went to the BBJP & $4 to the house. So, you bet $20 to win $16 when playing low ball poker.

When I'm opening the pot in this seat, I'll raise with 55+, since 55 vs. 5 opponents will be the best starting hand 80% of the time.

In most games, in addition to pocket pairs, AK, AQ, AJs, ATs, and KQs, I’ll add AJ, KQ, AT, KJs, JTs, and A9s-A8s. In some games, I’ll mostly stop there. I’ll stop when loose and tough players are behind me, and they aren’t letting me get heads-up with the blinds like I want to be. When I open with a weakish hand from middle position, I definitely want a decent chance to play in position against the blinds. If that’s unlikely, then I want really bad players behind me. If I have loose and tough players, I’ll typically pass on all the marginal stuff.

I take it you're thinking I'm on the button. If you don't open with JTs on the button, what do you open with?

Some ******ed logic in this thread.

We don't need 50+% equity to profitably c-bet...

This flop barely hits their ranges at all.

This discussion is interesting but kind of trivial since our hand is so +EV in this spot that any decision we make is never a big mistake. C-betting in this spot is certainly +EV; but so is c-betting with ATC in this spot.

The reason why checking behind is better is because any time an opponent re-raises you have to either fold or flip a coin. Having to fold this hand would be a disaster because you have so much equity and the opportunity to win a big pot by hitting your hand on the turn or river. Not getting a chance to draw to a huge hand because of a tricky opponent c/raising us is really crappy.

We can always semi-bluff the turn if a blank hits since our opponents hand ranges will much more narrow after we've get to seen them act after 4 streets mixed in with our current reads on them.

I actually did assume you were on the button, and I am not saying that opening JcTc otb is wrong. I just wanted to understand your logic for the play that you made. I learned to always have a reason for making a bet and I was simply asking you to define yours. We generally want to open pots in order to exploit our opponent in some way, just curious as to where we expect our profit to come from in this hand. Were there any specific preflop or postflop tendencies that you were trying to exploit? There were no limpers to isolate, we cant expect to be ahead of our opponents calling ranges who are still left to act, and we cant expect our 5 remaining opponents to fold often enough for stealing to show an immediate profit. Not trying to derail this thread or anything I just wanted to know why JcTc is a standard open 3 seats off the button for you. JcTc is a hand with great potential in many spots, I just don't see the potential in this spot. No big deal to just fold this hand and move on to the next one imo.

I'm betting the flop(about 15-20) not because I want worse hands to fold. I am betting the flop to make better hands fold like 22, KQ, A3.

I don't like a big bet because, sure we have a lot of equity, but all of ours outs are action killer cards. If we hit our straight, it puts a 4 card straight on the board which, we need him to have a Tx hand to get stacks in with. Also if we hit our flush draw, it scares him too. I am not looking to play a huge pot with this hand, not because we only have J high, but because we have no sneaky outs. I would fast play this hand, If the 6d on the flop we actually a 3 or blank in general

So, those of you who say not to c-bet, are you c-betting with AA, KK, QQ, AJ, set? Are you folding AA, KK, QQ, AJ to a 3bet (with or without a club)?

JTs is at the bottom of my opening range 3 off the button vs the players behind me. Here I have 3 players to my left that are relatively weak/tight & I feel as though they fold too many hands from their seats. So I feel that I can more often than not, steal the blinds, or be HU against a blind. The blinds defend, but not liberally & not aggressively. I do not see them as the type to call a 3/4 size flop bet with nothing but a gutshot & backdoor flush draw. I believe this to be the perfect situation to open my range from this seat to the max.

So, Plan A is to take down the blinds & recover the money I posted a few hands earlier. Not a huge win, however, if I can win the blinds 10x out of 100 orbits [~a 6.5 hr session] That's $30.00, since there's no rake & no dealer toke.

Playing 55+ AKs-A8s, AK0-ATo, KJs+, KQo, QJs, JTs is only 12% of all starting hands. Do you open 3 off the button with <12% of all starting hands?
If you open with >12%, what is your range that doesn't include JTs?

If the game is really soft, I might even add 22+ A2s+, 54s+, KJo & KJs. All for a raise.

IMO, JTs is stronger than QJs in some ways: It has more ways to flop the nut OESD/DBSD than QJ. K97r [with a card in my suit] is a nice hidden drawing board for JTs. So is AQ8.

With 55 in my seat statistically being the best starting hand 80% of the time vs. 5 left to act, my two blockers to pairs decreases the chances of someone holding an overpair to 55?

Even if I were up against 88 & 99 & both of them holding one of my suit, I've still got 41% equity.

I welcome input from anyone concerning this, as my long term win rate is not $24+pr hr in 1/2 like some of those I know. I'm still pushing on getting over the $20pr hr hump and finding it a real struggle.

[QUOTE=au4all;47377686]I think you're totally wrong. But if you're right, that means the person building the pot with you is the one who is wrong. Do you think people are calling your bet on the flop or check-raising with hands that they would fold if they could see your cards? Do you think they're making a mistake against your jack-high hand?

If they're not making a mistake building a pot, you definitely are. That's why I think the flop is a very obvious check. At least the Hero has figured out that he's bluffing, not value-betting trying to build a pot.

Or in other words if you're at a poker game do you find it difficult to play against people who want to build huge pots with jack-high and 3 outs to the nuts?

Why doesn't someone list the hands that check-raise this flop that are going to be really upset to see you turn over a hand as strong as jack-high?

According to any objective criteria this is a poor board to continuation bet: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...63&postcount=1

If we have 22/AK we have a perfect hand to bluff. If we have T9 we have a perfect hand to value-bet. As is we have a medium strength hand that would love to see a free turn.

Thanks for your input. au4all, I have a ? about the link you reference.

I take it that you have memorized the pros & cons for a c-bet & apply them in practice with long term success?

In the example listed in the link, I come up with +1 for a c-bet after adding up the pros & subtracting the cons. Is that what you come up with?

Thanks.

While hero does not do especially great against a c/r, that does not make it a good enough reason not to cbet with jack high in a decently built pot on a flop that really shouldn't hit them too hard on average. I do think that this flop texture lends itself to being check raised more than most as played, but it's still not a good enough reason.

Given that you said villain suffers from FPS, I think that his flop c/r range is wider than people are saying. Sure, we are a pretty solid underdog when he gets it in, but if we have any shred of fold equity in case he's dicking around, getting it in is profitable and makes up for the equity points we give up when he is a decent favorite. Without access to pokerstove atm, I'd think we are around 40-43% against his GII range.

So yeah, with $150 already in there, I'm shoving.

Particularly given the fact that the word "semi-bluff" is in the title of the thread, I'm still a little lost as to how this is never a c-bet. Again, by the definition of the term "semi-bluff," it operates as both a bluff and for value.

We bluff out Q/K/A-high hands that are ahead of us.
We get value from worse draws.
We get value from made hands that are nonetheless behind us in equity. (A8o, for example).

If we get callers, we can use our position to take a free card if we miss the turn, or if we hit the turn, now we can get real value for our hand, since the pot is larger.

I struggle to think of a situation that is more tailored to a c-bet than this.