I mean FFS there are 3 players in the hand you realize that right?

Once the 3-bettor checks back the the flop you target the UTG player who is more likely to have a continuing hand and may even be planning a check raise herself!

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There are not 24 combos of JJ+ because you can't assume that they check back the flop.

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So after the tilting Asian elects to not 4bet pre or lead the turn herself once flop checks through, you think it’s more likely V2 wins money off of her than hero?

Completely disagree. V2’s attention shifts entirely to hero at this point who has a very strong and narrow range and is going to bet that range on the turn.

No I didn’t realize dude. Literally every post I’ve made has been analyzing the dichotomy of these two villains.

There may not be 24 but there’s quite a few. I probably bet my 6 JJ so call it 18 combos.

You can't assume that an average villain is capable of check backing overpairs here, and AK is definitely not betting the turn. Realistically you should probably give villain 6-8 combos of JJ+, and probably 20ish for AK and some AQ. Now your turn check is not looking so good. I'm done here.

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None of this refutes why you shouldn’t check a hand on the turn with 90-100% equity vs. Hero once V1 shows no interest in the pot.

I already stated I’m checking QQ+ on the flop. You’re not so that portion of the discussion is dead at that point.

Johnny is owning this thread. Really good advice here.

I'm glad OP won the pot but I do think the river call is incorrect. We basically caught a guy overbluffing when we had no reads that he could or should be overbluffing, and the way this hand played out is not a typical spot to see lots of bluffs.

+1.

JB -- the average villain is not checking OPs 75-100% of the time.

Uh? River is a near snap call.

OP bet like $100 into $340 after checking back flop, and both players checked the turn. Folding this river is criminal, esp once the river pairs the board, reducing 1010.

+2

Johnny is putting up solid arguments IF you get to the turn in this fashion alot, but the whole premise is false overall like SABR points out. The vast majority of villains is never checking back big overpairs here in position in a bloated 3 bet pot with small rag cards.

I'm going to note that a good PAHWM generally consists of a number of Hero mistakes that gets them into a bad situation. Otherwise, the decision making is pretty straight forward.

Speaking of mistakes, it is worth reviewing the villain's logic in this situation. He called with Ax pf. My guess is his thought was, "I can hit TP and they're suited." He was thrilled the hand checked through on the flop. The plan was to check it down looking for the ace. All of a sudden, Hero makes a small bet. From his perspective, Hero likely had AK. He didn't bet out on the flop and made a weak bet on the turn to steal the pot. He immediately changes his plan and decides he can push this middle aged unknown man off with a raise. When that doesn't work, he decides to put maximum pressure by betting the river as well to bet Hero off his ace.

The villain's main mistakes were that he didn't have much a plan for this hand other than to hit the flop hard and to come up with a second plan on the fly based on what he was seeing. If he wanted to steal the pot, the time to do it was the first time through on the turn. An initial bet could easily be a set that checked the first time hoping that Hero had an OP.

If you go back and reread what I wrote earlier, I said when V2 check raised the turn I was a bit afraid that he had a flopped 2 pair because its really the only value hand he would check to me again on the turn. If he had a T he would bet the turn since he has to be putting me on AK/AQs type hands. Very few people are checking this flop in a 3 bet pot with an over pair so he must be putting me on overcards.

So I agree with Johnny that he could check 2 pair to me again not being worried about being outdrawn if I check back again, but I disagree that he could be very likely at all to play a T this way.

I was fully planning on calling the river shove if the board paired because I felt like V2 was bluffing but if the board paired it would give him a boat or counterfeit him and I was giving him way more bluffs than 2 pairs. The river T made me very confidant.

I agree with this and I think it may have been my $100 turn bet that made him change his plan and try to steal the pot. I didn't bet $100 to induce him though. I didnt think anyone had much. I wasnt giving another free card and thought one of them might call a small bet but obviously he took that as weakness and tried to make a move.

Honestly I dont think it was a bad check raise. I know most people here wouldnt have played the hand the way I did, however most people did want to fold to the check raise as played so I think the check raise wouldve worked against lots of people. Hell, I did almost fold myself until I really thought it thru. I think his river shove was probably also induced by how long it took me to call the turn.

If he had led the turn as a bluff and also bet the river I wouldve folded. I dont think I can beat anything with that line. It looks like he has a T or outflopped me.

OP, are there any river cards that might of gotten you to fold to a shove?

I wouldve really hated a 4 or a 9. If it was an Ace Im not sure what I wouldve done.

Yeah I'm wondering what type of A high hand he turned into a bluff. Maybe A9s or A8s.

Maybe even AJ or any other random Ax hand where he thought you had "AK" and could get you off of it.

From his perspective a lot of players are not going to check an over pair on that flop.

EDIT: Which is why you need to be calling here most of the time.

Mike, thank you for the hand, this has been a good discussion.

Setintostraight is on the dot here. The only glaring mistake I see in the hand is our light 3b. We should be targeting 140-185. Getting to a flop with a massively bloated pot (3b, multiway, straddle) with QQ against lag AND tag is our biggest mistake. I see every tough postflop decision we face as a result of this preflop mistake compounding. Thankfully we have position though so it is not a full on disaster!

After we are raised, the turn call/river call are marginal and based on reads. Yes we made the right call but think the point is not the decision (which I view as a coinflip) but how we got to this tough spot and that is due to our preflop mistake.

The fact also is we got lucky on the river and got one of the safer cards (though I think T8s plays exactly this way) and Villain made us call the turn raise without a great river plan.... Because there isn't one. Villain is going to put us in a horrible spot on any card that's not a Q, T, 2 etc. Really in my mind the only safe card is a Q. This is a great line by villain, we got lucky if anything (though I give credit to your read and thoughtprocess of course). Folding when an A, K, 8, 4 (and possibly 5,6,7) comes makes the turn call the equivalent of blow torching money

I think your small value bet that may have been perceived as an inducing bet is an interesting wrinkle. You yourself said that you didn't intend for it to induce but after being raised realized that he may just be trying to make a play on perceived weakness, which I think is correct. We all love having excuses to call (kidding)

I was prepared to be wrong about this and probably post either way.

I would be very surprised for backpack to check a monster twice.

It makes sense otf because you are pfr and as a bonus, tilty asian goes after you. Many things can go right.

On the turn it seems very unusual to check, for the same reason. You could well be against an over pair and the tilty asian has checked. If nothing else, you want to give her another pass at the hook.

It's a good argument about his preflop range, but he has played i think 8/ 40 hands. I would probably say that the weird turn play outweighs what his pre range should be assuming he is good instead of just a guy with some money.

And, at the risk of being too much of a soul reader, here is something much more speculative. his pause and small cr size kind of seems like a guy who is waivering. Like he thinks you might have ak, or your $100 bet is fishy, or that it would be a mistake or make him a vag if he let you take the pot for $100. He was prepared to give up but now he must react to an unforeseen event. He feels like he should do something but he wants to lose the min if you jam.

This is incorrect and skews the decision making. Why do you assume Tx would lead out on the turn just to fold out your hand with 12% equity?

Johnny had it right - V can and should check turn with all his value hands because Hero has air (giving Hero chance to bluff) or a slowplayed overpair for pot control (which he can c/r)

I need to push back on those critical of villain's play or critical of Mike Starr for classifying villain as a backpack Pro. I think a lot of the discussion for how this villain should be thinking would out level himself in a normal 2/5 game against a guy who looks like MikeStarr.

For all villain knows Mike Starr is an older retiree from S.Florida playing on vacation. Those types of players don't check overpairs on the flop and his line of checking flop and betting small on the term screams of AK. Villains aggressive line is probably +EV against most people who look like Mike Starr.

Also we don't know the exact hand he call/called with pre. Not necessarily A rag. Could be AQs or AJs

Why would he give me a free card in a $340 pot even if I only have 12% equity? He doesnt need to freak out and bet full pot like some guys would do, but he surely should be betting.

I get what you're saying and he probably did think I was an ABC TAG type guy on vaction, but I dont look like an "older retiree" at all.

Barring an odd read, as backpack I'm betting 225 ott with my entire range.

You’re folding QQ in Hero’s shoes if V bet turn?

I would call that bet and almost certainly have to fold the river which based on this line would be a terrible card for me, although you may chicken out and check the river because that 2nd T has to scare you also based on that proposed line by both of us.