Well, the action suggests that V is polarized between air and the nuts. We don't really have the reads that suggest with what frequency he's doing this.

I wouldn't get to the river in this way (we bloated the pot preflop without getting it heads-up and on the turn without really narrowing V's range in any meaningful way and we're playing against the better player of the 2)

Which hands might take this line at an aggressive table that we beat that call preflop? JJ/99 ?

There's just not enough bluffs in his range imo unless he soul read you and decided to take this line with ATC

I'm very interested in the results, because this is hand is quite good for people thinking of taking shots at 2/5, finally moving up from 1/2, 1/3.

V2 is the actual UTG+1...the blinds folded preflop

+1. I like that MikeStarr posts a good range of hands in this forum (instead of skewed towards hands he lost) so I think they are often good, realistic, and balanced for what folks might see out there.

Yeah, it also helps that he's a very solid winning player.

I may disagree with some of the lines he takes in these threads, but the results will always speak for themselves (maybe the line was right for his game after all).

I'm a nobody, but this is how I would think about it.

Most important part of the deduction process is ranging UTG+1 preflop after flatting vs a spaz UTG. Something like {JJ-55, suited broadways, and the occasional low SC} makes sense. He continues with 100% of this range to heroes squeeze.

On the flop he checks 100%.

On the turn he checks 100%. He check raises TT,88-55 then shoves 100% of rivers.

Lose to 10 combos, beat 6.

A call looks to be break even.

^ Now add in 12 combos of suited broadway Tx hands + 4 combos of 98s and voila ...

^ No one thinks we should add in some random bluff / attack weakness hands like KQs or QJs?

Maybe. I think he’d be more likely to bomb turn and double barrel river with them.

Mike hasn’t helped us at all with the slightest hint of a range estimate so it’s all entirely subjective.

88 is a pretty clear turn lead as well so I’d remove that from his line/range.

In b4 back pack bluff shoves 67 that got counterfeit and mike soul read calls to scoop the pot.

Results:

I think its pretty hard to range a guy youve played with for about 30-40 hands. He's probably played 8 of them and showed down 1 or 2. He called a standard raise. He's in EP so he should be a bit tighter but who knows? I honestly have no idea if hes a bad, good or great player. I just know he seems the type that plays a lot and knows everyone in the room. Hes had a lot of big chips in his pocket. He's mid 20s typical pro type but that doesn't necessarily mean hes a great player.

I dont think he is checking the flop and turn to me with a set or straight. I really didnt believe he had a T and checked it to me after I checked the flop in a 3 bet pot. After the turn check raise I thought he may have flopped 2 pair but still didnt think he would check that twice either. I thought there was a very good chance my line (sizing) confused him and and looked pretty weak and that I induced a bluff on the turn.

When I called the turn raise, I was pretty sure I was calling most rivers. I thought other than a Q, the T was the perfect river because if he did flop 2 pair, I now have him beat.

I fully expected him to shove the river. He probably thought the T was the perfect card for him because I did have an overpair I would lay it down but as I said I didnt believe for a second that he had a T. I called pretty quickly and he said "Ace high you win".

Good call.

Showing down Ahi would mean he is overbluffing... or he's using A8/AK type hands instead of 88 as a x/r. But if you're confident that he leads all his value hands on the turn, then betting small to induce makes sense.

Nice hand lucky outcome. You calling it off proves the case for slow playing this board texture.

This is results oriented. We gave him a free look at a turn when he had 3+ outs, and Ax is only part of his range here. Sure, we induced a spazz bluff, which is sometimes a good strategy against players who spazz out, but generally the mistakes players make at these stakes is not bluffing enough and calling too often. We can exploit LLSNL players (backback pro image aside) by value betting heavier and folding to aggression. I'll agree that in this hand with this action against this villain calling down turn/river is a good move, but I still think this spot is one where we need to bet the flop. Maybe AA can afford to check the flop, but I don't think QQ has enough equity to give free cards.

The only street played well was the river.

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I meant slow playing from villain’s perspective.

Hero calling this river is suicide vs. a range that villain should actually have.

River is such a no brainer given that villain is pretty much repping jack ****.

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I’ve identified 26 value combos trip 10’s or better I’m playing this way. There’s way more value combos than bluffs which a “pro” shouldn’t have many of calling from +1.

What Tx combos are you playing UTG+1 vs. an UTG open and an MP 3! in a straddle pot? I can think of one I would play, and that's TT.

Yup. I don't understand how people aren't betting the flop.

I already listed them.

Given V1 is a spazz tilting Asian that 4bet JTs I’m going to be flatting her with all suited broadway Tx. Hero’s small 3bet let’s villain continue with his entire range.

If people are giving villain 76s/75s/65s then then it’s only natural to give him T9s/T8s as well.

Considering hero either pot controlled JJ+ or didn’t bet AK, it’s pretty standard to x your entire value range OTT so that hero bets his overpairs or bluffs AK.

And if turn x through then we give V1 a chance to bluff the river or hero to spike an A/K on the river.

There’s really no reason to bet the turn with any 2p+ hands from V2’s perspective. The only hands I’d be betting in his position are 99/88 for equity protection. If I was villain I would have bet T9/T8 but I wouldn’t remove them from his x/r range either.

Yeah, bull****.

You shouldn't be checking turn with any value hand when it looks extremely likely that the hand will go to the river for free.

And you have no reason to raise Tx, and certainly not any hand for that sizing. That sizing looks exactly like what it is: airball.

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Agree to disagree.

Hero 3! an UTG open and +1 call. His 3bet range is going to be very narrow like JJ+/AK.

Given he checked flop you can be reasonably assured he’s going to bet turn with his entire range. Every single person in this thread (myself included) advocated a turn bet.

So saying it’s incredibly likely this turn checks through is the only BS statement. What does betting accomplish? You fold out AK. congratulations!

I already stated I wouldn’t play Tx like this on the turn but I can see why villain would. It folds out hero’s AK while putting tons of pressure on JJ+. Tx blocks top set and hero never has 88 so you can x/r knowing hero’s range is incredibly capped.

Literally rolling on the floor right now.

I think this happens way less frequently at lower stakes, though.

Nice hand, Mike. Wish you'd given us more of a range read on V and maybe a previously played hand where he showed down?

Assuming hero will bet turn with his entire range is wtf result oriented. Most of the time what happens is that hero has what it looks like (AK most likely) and has long given up on the hand.

In that scenario you just give a free card to everyone and get zero money in the pot.

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There’s 24 combos of JJ+ that he’s betting with. What are you talking about?

And what’s wrong with giving a free card to AK with 100% equity when the alternative is villain bets turn and hero folds?

I know you’re a better player than me but slow playing 2p+ makes perfect sense from V2’s perspective and I think I’ve laid out pretty clearly why.