I actually kind of like this idea with passive players, and may steal it. I guess the problem is with clubs bricking, they might check and see a river bet so weak that they get baited into bluffing with their own bricked FD. On the hand you did it i guess he had 6x.

The people saying call the flop have some explaining to do. We do remember there are two more players left to act on a sopping wet board, right?

I'm in the raise camp. You got what you wanted, great flop against a villain who calls down light. Shovel it in.

Make it $225 to go.

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5/5 ~$1650 eff.

V opens in either UTG+1 or 2 to $25. Hero's next to act and sees KT

Hero calls $25, BTN calls, one of the blinds call. 4 way to the flop.

$99

K T 7

X, V $80, Hero $250, fold, fold, V calls.

$599

A

V checks, Hero?

Awful card. Check it back and get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

I thought about shoving turn, but V's flop flat of the raise looks incredibly strong, so I'm ranging him heavily on value hands now with some nut spade and OESD draws.

Would hate to go broke in this pot by overvaluing 2-pair, so I think we check it back and try to get to showdown if spades miss river.

Check back.

I hate checking it back here, but that was the worst card ever (except the Ace if Spades).

Agree with last reply. Get to showdown as cheaply as possible.





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I disagree with the check-back... Are we just going to fold river if villain bets into us on a brick? If not, I prefer betting now and checking later to checking now and calling later... I'd bet like $375-425, and fold to a raise.

Even though he limped with AA/AK type hands previously, he still has 9 combos of them that beat us here, he could easily still have them here, along with some straights. Would he have that many combos of flush draws, hard to say if he's clicking buttons.

I'd fold preflop. Agree with raise to $240ish on flop for reasons stated earlier.

On turn I'd want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible as well. He may raise with Ax on turn if we bet, which we'd still be ahead of, so would be a mistake to fold. I'd check back.

Agree with this 100%. And I like the ~400 sizing with the intention to fold to a raise and check back most rivers.



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What do you have as Villain's continuing range when he calls our flop raise? Now how do we look against that range that will call a turn bet?

Villain has all the sets, AA, AK, QJ, and Broadway spades. Basically we are now ahead of only two combos in that range (AJss, AQss). And even against those combos, Villain could easily choose to c/jam them on the turn (since he will with his value hands), and we not only get no value but might have to fold a better hand.

If you think he floated our flop raise with something like QQ/JJ/98, and will pay off a turn bet with them, then god bless you.

Seriously wtf worse hands do you think are calling here?

I have a very limited range here and likely will have no raises facing psb from EP pfr into 3 people, just an extremely strong calling range that is generally going to be ok with any overcalls this early in a hand with this much play behind.

My answer is villain dependent. Villain description was that he does a lot of button clicking. Could easily have any number of spade draws that just picked up a pair on the turn (Axss). I see your point he has a lot of better two pair combos at this point, but checking turn folding river seems too weak. Also has KQ, KJ floating flop raise.


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AP Bet turn - size down - aim to leave a psb behind, though checking most rivers is ideal. There is no way a rec player has a proper bet-c range here, a turn bet is not as thin as it seems.

Are we okay with overcalls here though? While we have a strong hand in terms of absolute strength, it's incredibly vulnerable on this dynamic board 4ways. Any Ace, Jack, 9, 7, 6, or spade either kills our hand outright or severely kills our action/value if we are still ahead. We will also be at a complete loss versus their ranges on later streets as to whether they are weighing toward value or bluffs.

I sure as hell would not flat a set in this spot on the flop, so I don't see a reason to flat top two.

That ace physically hurts my body, how awful. If you bet the turn, youre value betting yourself, AsXs isnt even in a bad spot vs you, and youre letting the button clicker set up for a very painful river shove.

Im checking back turn, praying for a T, and if he bets a non A/Q/J/spade river ill probably call, otherwise ill fold.

I think betting overreps your hand, and puts you in a position where you cant even really use your hand as a bluffcatcher.

I never said I was folding river for sure. It will be dependent on Villain's river sizing if he bets.

I highly disagree that KQ/KJ float our flop raise OOP, but that's irrelevant because those hands are folding turn anyway so our bet has no value against those holdings.

Maybe Villain can have more Axss than I initially assigned to his range, but that's still too narrow a range to target for value. It gives him at most 8 combos of hands to target instead of 2. Plus, even with those 2-8 combos, V could easily c/jam them, so we're not gaining any value because we'd have to fold. Even if V has no c/r range whatsoever (unlikely), we're still losing to the following combos that can call the turn bet:

AK (6)
KK (1)
TT (1)
77 (3)
AA (3)
QJs (4)
QJo (4 of a possible 16, since he's a button clicker)

So in Villain's turn calling range he has at most 8 combos we beat, and 18-30 that we lose to. Villain does not have remotely enough combos we beat in his turn calling range to justify a bet.

I'd really like to see your work on this, given the combinatorics I provided and the fact that V could easily c/jam us with worse and we can't call.

I really am not concerned about being ckr ott this deep w worse when it’s such a low frequency outcome to begin with on this card. At least not to the point where I want to just ck back against some rec guy who likely is way too wide here and now has an expanded turn ckc range on a card that improves his range, but not to the point where he only has AK/AA and we should shell up and check. Handreading makes QJ unlikely, though possible, but that just ckr turn 100% anyway and we can fold. To be clear KT would be the bottom of my value betting range here, so checking can’t be too far behind, I just think that your ranging and where this guy is irl is quite different. You have him way too narrow and didn't include KQ/KTs/Axss/CDs and other hands that play better as a check like AQ/AJ. He might even have 76ss.

Your 6 sets have a higher positive expectation played as a raise than KT because they naturally expand your opponent’s value betting/continuing ranges. Against main V here, his value can be, KK+, AKs, KTs+, AKo, and TT is going to expand that range by 33% (combo wise) versus when you have KTs - Its a greater opportunity to try for 3 streets deep. KT is more of a two street hand and is also more vulnerable which is NOT a viable reason to start raising when deep. You can raise, but you can also call profitably and keep things a little wider heading to the big bet streets.

As to turn bet... Yes, we fold to a check-raise because villain almost always has QJ when they x/r turn, and occasionally but rarely AK. It's just not a huge deal to fold if we were going to call river anyway. We only have 4 outs (maybe 2).

I'm not concerned about a turn x/r bluff. We should have enough JQ combos to defend against that.

I do want to get more value from flush draws, and want hands like KJ-KQ, 89, etc, to fold out their equity - or call if they want.

FWIW, I'd be more inclined to check back my flush draws (especially Ax) and sets, as it sucks to have to fold out that equity to a turn x/shove. But *only* betting JQ here seems to me to not be betting enough. So betting two pair is a good way to round out our range.

With two pair, I just think we'll be playing our range more effectively as a turn bet. Again, the reasons are: (1) the hands that beat us, we're mostly going to pay off on the river anyway and possibly for a price we're much less pleased about, and (2) the hands that we're ahead of now have a good deal of equity against us, and we're ok about folding those out while hoping for a loose call vs the few that decide to bluff river after turn check.

If KQ and KJ are part of villain's range and fold to a turn bet, yes our turn bet certainly had value against that part of villain's range. They both have over 20% equity against us. If we know villain has these hands, checking turn is tantamount to handing over $120 to them.

And IME, as an aggressive player, I very rarely expect top pair to fold to my flop raise. So I certainly do expect to see villains show up with these hands.

This is absolutely gross, but I think I check turn and act like i'm on a draw. I'm willing to call a solid bet on a good river, but i'm checking it down otherwise due to how deep we are. At 100bb stacks or 150bb stacks, i'd be piling the turn and taking my chances he has Axs.

If V bets pot or shoves, i'm probably folding any river that isn't a K or T. This is probably slightly nitty, but I just don't want to get it in this deep without a better hand.

I'm certainly in the bad turn camp. Didn't like it in play.

5/5 ~$1650 eff.

V opens in either UTG+1 or 2 to $25. Hero's next to act and sees KT

Hero calls $25, BTN calls, one of the blinds call. 4 way to the flop.

$99

K T 7

X, V $80, Hero $250, fold, fold, V calls.

$599

A

V checks, Hero checks

$598

T

V bets $360. H has $1375 left in stack.