Quote:
Originally Posted by blackgall24
My answer is villain dependent. Villain description was that he does a lot of button clicking. Could easily have any number of spade draws that just picked up a pair on the turn (Axss). I see your point he has a lot of better two pair combos at this point, but checking turn folding river seems too weak. Also has KQ, KJ floating flop raise.
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I never said I was folding river for sure. It will be dependent on Villain's river sizing if he bets.
I highly disagree that KQ/KJ float our flop raise OOP, but that's irrelevant because those hands are folding turn anyway so our bet has no value against those holdings.
Maybe Villain can have more Axss than I initially assigned to his range, but that's still too narrow a range to target for value. It gives him at most 8 combos of hands to target instead of 2. Plus, even with those 2-8 combos, V could easily c/jam them, so we're not gaining any value because we'd have to fold. Even if V has no c/r range whatsoever (unlikely), we're still losing to the following combos that can call the turn bet:
AK (6)
KK (1)
TT (1)
77 (3)
AA (3)
QJs (4)
QJo (4 of a possible 16, since he's a button clicker)
So in Villain's turn calling range he has at most 8 combos we beat, and 18-30 that we lose to. Villain does not have remotely enough combos we beat in his turn calling range to justify a bet.