V checking is a good sign he didn't make the straight but I suspect a fishy player like this can still have weak AX here quite a lot. Fishy players also love to trap. I've checked back a lot of rivers and been shown the nuts by overly trappy players hoping I would bet one more time.

Since we thought a lot of V's range was draws I don't think we have a lot of hands we can get value out of on the river: Maybe KJ? Is V so fishy he called flop raise with a pair below top pair? I'd need a good read V calls flop raise with lots of pairs as well as draws before I try to get more value on river.

For me with info available it would be too thin a value bet on this river and i just take the route of least resistance and check behind for showdown.

Check behind

Would be amusing if we jammed for thin value and got AcXc to fold instead, but I'd probably just check behind. Board scary to get much river value.

check behind river and take note of his hand.

In what universe would he ever fold Ax of clubs?

The line is fine to the turn. I think checking behind is likely best. An ace hits his range and JQ is now a straight. Basically most second best hands have now caught up. The only thing shoving does is force all of his draws to pay but I don't see how we get called by worse when we shove.

The river is an obvious check back IMO.

"Overvalues any piece of the flop" suggests that he can have a lot of worse kings or maybe Tx here. I doubt he checks 2P+ twice, so the most common hand we'll be beaten by here is Acxc. This seems like a very clear value bet. I would bet something I think Kx will call, which depends a lot on the V. Based on the fact that V seems to be on the stationy side, shoving is really tempting, but I like a small $95 better if we never get bluff raised.

Lol, this. I've seen too many weak players lose loads of value trying to get super trappy and I don't think we're getting value from any of the hands we beat. He could be scared and put us on AK, because players at LLSNL just love to put you in that hand. Still best to check imo.

FWIW, I didn't get to the party for the flop but I like the raise, probably would do 150 myself. This runout was just terrible for our value, unfortunately. Check behind.

So yes I checked behind. He tables QJo lol

Thanks everyone. I think turn and check were easy. It was my flop raise which I thought was a good line to take was the suspect part of the play. In fact my good friend who is a higher limit crusher said he hates the raise. But wasn't able to explain why cause he was busy. I have yet to talk to him today

But the consensus seems it was the right play. And I just got unlucky. But lost the bare min.

Thanks again

It'd be cool if he could explain his reasoning, as the flop is almost an auto raise for me. Maybe raising would be bad in his games, but I'd be quite surprised if raising is not the best play here.

It'd also be cool if others better explain why the river is a check, because I seem to be the only one who thinks it's a value bet.

There are 6 combos of one-pair Acxc if AJs+ is raised preflop. If V doesn't slow-play 2P+ then we only lose to 6 combos. TP is another common donking hand and described V will probably nearly always call a raise if he donks it. I think V has a lot of Kx in his range, and at least a few slow-plays, but not enough to make up for the decent amount of Kx.

My explanation is i just played so many hands where I tried to go for thin value in spots like this and got shown the nuts, sets, 2-pair AX. Trouble with fish is they don't do logic!

Also I love that fish had the nuts

Totally standard in my games.

I think the reason the flop raise is bad is because it has to be so big to be effective that it shuts out too many of the hands we're ahead of and negates some of our positional advantage (I.e. ability to gain lots of information over multiple streets).

I wasn't hugely against the raise though so also interested to hear your friend's reasoning...

Well it turns out somehow the flop raise got me to showdown very cheap lol

^ lol yeah, got to love the fish

And here I feel like I usually check back here just to get shown KJ It might just be a case of remembering the beats more clearly than the victories.

One thing I've been trying to think about a lot recently is thin value, because I think I miss it and play like a showdown monkey a bit too often against opponents who call too often.

My saying it's a "very clear value bet" earlier was a bit misleading, btw. I just meant that I favor it quite a bit over checking, not that I think it either obvious or better than checking by a wide margin.

When I bet here I definitely expect to lose quite often, but I think we're good often enough and may be called by worse often enough to make it slightly better than a check.

Well, that's why I said it would be amusing. You'll go broke trying to get people to fold that hand, but occasionally aggression reaps unexpected benefits.

OP, make sure to give your friend all of the information including stack sizes and read. I'm very comfortable stacking off on the flop against main villain given info provided.

I think this kind of player can call flop raise with AQ and AJ (overcard and gutshot). That puts even more AX in his range and makes going for thin value even, well, thinner.

Fish with ridiculously wide ranges that they play passively to the river can be pretty difficult to read.

Let's give fish a range for leading flop and calling raise (combos in brackets):

TT (3) 55 (3) KT (6) KJ, K9-K6 (60) AT (9) AQ/AJ (28) A9cc-A2cc(8) QJ (12) JT (12) QT (9)

By the river we are therefore losing to 68 combos and beating 72. Obviously I've made a lot of assumptions there but I think you'll be betting very thin value on the river whatever way you cut it.

The number of combos of Kx V could have here doesn't matter, what matters is the combos of Kx that can call a bet OTR vs the slew of other hands he likely has that beat us. And I have a hard time believing anyone but an absolute station continues with Kx after our flop x/r because they're in a RIO situation: even if they're right that they have the best made hand they're dodging a lot of bullets to get to SD and they could easily be crushed.

Additionally, as a general population read at these stakes weak Vs slow play and go for a x/r far more than they should and it costs them a ton of value. Tons. But really, the fact that I think we're almost never getting called by worse is enough reason to check behind here.

After the flop raise and V's call, pot is $365. Hero has approx $250 behind. SPR is way too low to bet/fold if V X/RAI on this river, and his hand is way too weak to bet/call and expect to be good, or to jam and expect to be good if called.

Therefore checking behind to close the action is better. Simply a matter of having a plan if V raises after you keep the action open. There is no good plan available here.

We have position, it wasn't a x/r in the flop. We have the read that he overvalues any piece of the flop, so it's reasonable to assume villain has kx often when the action is on hero on the river. Problem is, how often will be call a river bet with that part of his range.

My bad, mistyped. I was thinking raise but whatever, Still, I think you're reading way too much into that statement about overvaluing any piece. Clearly, this board runout is bad for all Kx combos so even if V is prone to bluff catch, the fact that he'd call our raise otf with K rag and would still be willing to pay us off here is overly optimistic. I'm all for thin value, but i think this is waaaay too thin.

Agreed, I said check back also. I think the Ace makes the thin value tough to get AND improves his hand some of the time as well. But he should have kx a lot and our turn check will make him want to be a hero.

My thought was My TPGK quickly turned into a bluff once the A hit....so my best course of action was take a shot a double barreling a bluff or shut it down. Based on the information I had on the V and the feel of the hand....I decided to shut it down...was I giving up some value in the long run...maybe...but in my estimation not a ton...so the check back in this situation was the right move

Yeah I think you played it well.

Still interested in your pro friend's take on the hand if he has the time...