Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk
As far as overcards go, Q doesn’t scare me as much as A or K. I put out a bet of $25.
This bet is criminal imo, it has basically nothing going for it.
- Against typical flatting ranges, you're an underdog to have the best hand right now. Play around in Equilab. I have it roughly 42% to have the best hand right now and 32% equity, using the opponent range { JJ-33,AQs-A3s,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,AQo-A7o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o }
- Opponent calling ranges will be easily ahead of you because they have a lot of Qs, against which you have two outs. All the hands in the portion of their calling range which is losing to you have at least 5 outs (I guess with the possible exception of like 88-TT).
- If raised you will have to fold. This is partly a problem when up against flush draws which raise, but it's also actually a consideration against sets. Although you are only like 1 in 20 to overset them on any given street, you probably stack them if you hit. Obviously this only matters if you're able to call the flop, which you often can't.
- You're not really protecting anything. As mentioned, if you let the rest of the board run out your winning chances only decrease by 10%. That's over two streets, it costs $4 to just let the runout happen. This board is actually pretty dry. Other than clubs (which you can't get rid of by betting anyway) it's hard for people to have many outs against you.
- We have a positional disadvantage and want to keep the pot small where possible.
- If you bet all these types of hands, your check range will be terminally weak. I'm not sure what would be in your x/c range if this isn't.