PAHWM: Flopped Flush - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Loooool, so gross. I don't think I can fold quite yet to some unknown playing in god mode, but I'm almost hoping the turn is a diamond so we can fold. I'll probably talk myself into calling at least one more blank because bare Ad (which are all combo draws) and overvauled sets and straights that are accidentally bluffing are still represented in this sorta player's range.

Bookmarked for the next time someone just assumes a low suited hand is a high SPR hand.

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07-20-2016 , 05:44 PM

#28

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by IMA

His range is sets and made flushes which leaves us behind otf

Our choices are to fold flop or jam non board pairing turns

Is there an argument to be made for calling flop and seeing what happens, hopefully using our position / turn card / how he reacts to figure this out?

Course if he's just going to continue all the time on blanks (which is possible), and if we're going to consider folding the turn, then maybe it is better just to let it go on the flop.

GcluelessdeepstacknoobG

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07-20-2016 , 05:48 PM

#29

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by RaiseAnnounced

Bookmarked for the next time someone just assumes a low suited hand is a high SPR hand.

Yeah, there actually seems to be a threshold sweet spot stack size where low suited connectors / small pairs play best. If stack is too small, then obviously don't have the implied odds. But if stack is too large, then our RIO shoot up against any non-****** wanting to play for huge stacks. It seems the best might be an inbetween amount, one that gives us alright implied odds and yet we can still feel ok getting in stacks against non-******s who might feel ok committing for a certain size of stack without nuttish hands.

Gthankfullydoesn'tplayinenoughdeepstacksituationst ocareG

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07-20-2016 , 06:11 PM

#30

wj94

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 7,951

SCs are best in high SPR situations where the PFR is likely to have a big pair that they won't fold. When the guy who never raises opens to $15 UTG and I have 78s on the button and can play a high SPR pot, I'm salivating. When someone with a wide PFR range makes it $15 and 4 people call when everyone is deep, not so much.

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07-20-2016 , 06:28 PM

#31

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,490

Quote:

Originally Posted by wj94

Call me a nit but I'd probably just fold the flop. V just 2x potted the wettest flop in the world into the entire field and given the AA hand before and AJ fold, you haven't seen him do anything crazy yet. Let's assume V's range is all reasonable flushes (removing hands like J6dd/Q6dd), 22-44, A5s, 56s. You have 40% vs that range on the flop. If you add the unreasonable flushes you have 35%. An overpair making a huge overbet like that does not seem correct given how V played the AA hand unless V has exactly AdAx and then he probably slows down more on that turn card too.

Are we calling if V bets $500+ on river? Yeah you flopped a flush and should be good sometimes, but it's not a slam dunk and V hasn't shown himself to be a massive whale that will do this with random bluffs/semi-bluffs/worse value hands yet. I think the whole thing is pretty marginal when he 2x pots that specific flop in a 5-way pot with people behind him yet to act.

Can't check atm because I'm at work, bt how does our equity change when we add in 5d5x? That's another 3 combos that he likely goes ham with that we are miles ahead of.

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07-20-2016 , 06:35 PM

#32

wj94

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 7,951

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

Can't check atm because I'm at work, bt how does our equity change when we add in 5d5x? That's another 3 combos that he likely goes ham with that we are miles ahead of.

Too lazy to re-run it but I'd guess it's about 3-4% difference, not that much. Is the guy really 2x potting that flop with 55, even with the draw? Seems unlikely. The hands someone, especially a rec player that hasn't shown any maniac tendencies, would 2x pot that flop with are going to be extremely nutted. Feels more like a QTdd hand where he says after everyone folds "didn't want the ace to get there"

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07-20-2016 , 06:48 PM

#33

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

Agree with a lot of comments so far. I believe his flop bet is more heavily weighted towards weak made hands (flushes, sets, straights) than strong draws (Ad, 5d). Agree that we aren't doing well enough against that range to GII on flop.

On turn we improve a bit equity wise, but I don't think we are folding out high equity hands, so I don't see a lot of downsides to flatting turn unless he has AdX precisely.

River ($1100): 2d3d4d 6s 3c
V shoves for $1080

Spoiler:

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07-20-2016 , 06:48 PM

#34

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

So..... 300bb immediately at risk in a fold/commit spot, only 2 flush combos worse, 3 players to act (stacks?), SB still has the nuts in range, all gii ranges have solid equity...

FOLD WTF

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07-20-2016 , 06:52 PM

#35

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amanaplan

So..... 300bb immediately at risk in a fold/commit spot, only 2 flush combos worse, 3 players to act (stacks?), SB still has the nuts in range, all gii ranges have solid equity...

FOLD WTF

This is a fine option I think. You are going to be making a bad fold a heavy percent of the time, but it can never be that bad to fold here unless you know he is shutting down a lot on turn.

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07-20-2016 , 07:03 PM

#36

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,490

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amanaplan

...

You are the master of coming in post results and conveniently knowing exactly what to do in the hand. =)

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07-20-2016 , 07:12 PM

#37

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamitontheriver

This is a fine option I think. You are going to be making a bad fold a heavy percent of the time, but it can never be that bad to fold here unless you know he is shutting down a lot on turn.

I think it's a bad call more often than a bad fold. That 200 is dead way too often but you're better off committing on flop than committing to a call down line... It isn't a HU spot either, messy.

AP, it isn't even clear what to do (assuming it went HU) when he checks.

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07-20-2016 , 07:14 PM

#38

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

One more thing to add. His flop bet was tossing in two black $100 chips. I think there's somewhere around a 1% chance that he meant to toss two green chips in for a bet of $50. Very low liklihood but not impossible.

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07-20-2016 , 07:17 PM

#39

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

You are the master of coming in post results and conveniently knowing exactly what to do in the hand. =)

LOL. Ouch, I never want to see results before commentary, I'm not that guy homeslice.

Meanwhile, I went to run your inane 55d equity calc mid post and I just missed hitting submit by maybe 30 seconds before OP "results"

:P

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07-20-2016 , 07:23 PM

#40

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

You are the master of coming in post results and conveniently knowing exactly what to do in the hand. =)

Last edited by amanaplan; 07-20-2016 at 4:00PM Reason: better line, post results

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07-20-2016 , 09:54 PM

#41

RaiseAnnounced

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 278

OTT: In theory, it's a fold, but I think calling one more is fine.

OTR: Very obvious fold with the board pairing. I was never planning on calling all three anyway.

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07-20-2016 , 10:18 PM

#42

jake

adept

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 796

Well - if you were right on the turn (no A

) - you were right on the river.
If you were wrong on the turn you were wrong on the river.

If he was on the naked A draw... how do you think he would have played on that river card?

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07-20-2016 , 10:32 PM

#43

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by jake

Well - if you were right on the turn (no A

) - you were right on the river.
If you were wrong on the turn you were wrong on the river.

If he was on the naked A draw... how do you think he would have played on that river card?

Hard to see him shoving river with naked ace. I have a lot of sets in my range by river and jamming river without a boat here I think is a pretty bad play.

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07-20-2016 , 11:09 PM

#44

jake

adept

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 796

Not really a lot of sets...22(3), 44(3), 33(1). Can't remember the preflop action - but I'm guessing there's way more A

x hands. Not saying your fold was bad - but if he did get himself way over his head with the naked Ace... that river could have offered him a way out.

Edit - sorry we were ranging your hand not his. So I should have said that you have way more Flush and straights in your range than sets.... (after all you were holding 97:diamonds

Last edited by jake; 07-20-2016 at 11:16 PM. Reason: clarification

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07-20-2016 , 11:25 PM

#45

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by jake

Not really a lot of sets...22(3), 44(3), 33(1). Can't remember the preflop action - but I'm guessing there's way more A

Fair enough, that's why I posted for feedback.

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07-21-2016 , 07:01 PM

#46

bodybuilder32

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,423

River action confirms this guy flopped a set.

I honestly feel bad for some of the posters on this forum. You must play in the nittiest games out there if you think a guy would bet $200 into $100 with a flopped Q high flush.

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07-21-2016 , 07:40 PM

#47

wj94

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 7,951

Quote:

Originally Posted by bodybuilder32

River action confirms nothing. V can play all flushes and boats this way. We're not even in that great of shape against a flopped set and V's range is still ahead of hero's hand. Post a range for V's flop betting and see how it stacks up vs 97dd.

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07-21-2016 , 07:56 PM

#48

cAmmAndo

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 4,727

Quote:

Originally Posted by wj94

River action confirms nothing. V can play all flushes and boats this way. We're not even in that great of shape against a flopped set and V's range is still ahead of hero's hand. Post a range for V's flop betting and see how it stacks up vs 97dd.

not sure if serious.

Flushes are the the nut lo for I/o cuz ldo 3flush but sets and T2p won't fold even deep so they are exactly the hands we can pile it in against.

Obv T2p isn't in range here so it's sets and his aggressively played AdXo that we are targeting for value.

cA65/35looksgoodtomeAm

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07-21-2016 , 08:01 PM

#49

wj94

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 7,951

Quote:

Originally Posted by cAmmAndo

Yeah it's 65/35 but his range isn't just sets, not sure why this is difficult to comprehend. If V turns over a set on the flop and says what do you wanna do then you pile it in obviously, but that's not how it works. Any non-maniac's range for 2x potting a 5-way flop with 3 players behind this deep is going to be limited to super nutty hands. Sets is probably the absolute bottom of his range to 2x pot flop with.

I'd like to know if OP is calling a $1000 shove when the river is a total brick.

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07-21-2016 , 08:28 PM

#50

cAmmAndo

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 4,727

I know how it works.

I realize you are assigning him flushes which I discount significantly but that's just a point of disagreement.

You said we aren't in good shape against sets. I was correcting that statement.

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