People do this all the time Mike. Just ignore the table talk. The reason ppl say this is to level you into not betting

The math is actually complicated. You have to do a lot of permutations because we don't know what the bet size is going to be. It could change depending on the cards that come. In order to figure out the ev of a flop call vs raise, you have to make a lot of assumptions. No one can do this in game. The thing about this hand is that there is a flush draw and combo draws you could have. If you play your entire range on this board then you can get a better grasp of the math because you can compute your math based on your range of cards.

In short, we are raising our combo draws like AJhh right? Should always have a mirror image hand at all time so that your range is split between value and bluffs otr. If we actually had a nut flush draw with SD here how would we play?

Also, 40% equity on this board is probably right around the mid point. Its sufficient to just do calculation with a median hand to simplify. When we have this type of equity 3 way our best result is to have them FOLD! We need to use FOLD EQUITY on this hand. That's why we raise the flop or turn. We want them to fold most of the time. We have more combo draws than sets

Maybe you should ask one of the crushers in your 2-5 game to explain it to you.

LOL.

Also, getting over set by the shortie is another level of rungood

I did make $70 on the hand after getting set over setted. Thats not bad...although not long ago I set over setted someone else and lost $700 to the third guy

That is 40% to the river genius. We are talking about TO THE TURN aka his draw range has 20-25%.

I'm not missing the point because there is no point. You don't understand combos and apparently you also now don't understand equity TO THE TURN versus equity TO THE RIVER.

But he didn't because your sick live reads deduced he had a monster combo draw right?

Yes God forbid you spend some time brushing up on a topic you are clearly completely deficient in.

It’s an extraordinarily dynamic calculation to try and find max ev and there is a lot more info needed to attempt here, prob impossible anyway here with all the stack discrepancies and impact that has on range interaction which we didn’t even get to yet.

If you simplify things, you can see how quickly complicated things can get. Let’s just say it’s HU w the pfr. On the flop against a reasonable range you have both a +ev call and a +ev raise. Easy enough. However, even if you knew which of these was immediately more profitable for your exact hand, you still have to consider future possibilities that might make the lesser of the two immediate ev options the more profitable one for the whole hand.

You can't really calculate the math/EV of certain outcomes of this hand, it comes down to subjective probability/bayesian probability, and that isn't exactly going to give us much information since our subjective probability of what occurs probably isn't close to the actual probability he plays the hand given a certain outcome. Then we haven't even gotten to the actual computation, which is probably fairly complicated anyway and not really even worth doing when we don't even have the true probability of what frequency x action is occurring at. Plus as someone else said, we won't know the bet size either. You seriously can't expect that anyone could calculate this, right? There's literally nothing to calculate; it'll all be arbitrary numbers. You don't seem to be very math-based, so of course maybe it seems a lot easier to you than it actually is.

I know we would have to make a lot of assumptions, but we also have to make assumptions when we say if I raise the flop, that I will get the guy all in on the flop. We dont know what the SB will do. Most of us wouldnt think he would just overcall the $40 with middle set, so we dont know if I raised the flop to $100-$150 if he would call or if he would shove his $275ish in.

We dont know what the guy with KsQs would do either. If I raise, the SB could call or raise. The guy with KsQs may or may not shove his whole stack in....and if he does he has 40% equity vs my 66....which is what I was saying to Johnny but hes too bullheaded to listen. He would rather try to prove hes smarter than everyone when hes really just a bigger smart ass than everyone.

My point is that we always make assumptions about what move is higher EV. We can make some assumptions about what the avg person would do if I raise the flop or wait for the turn to raise and go from there and see which seems better.

Any time a V's hand is a dog, the more +EV line is the one that gets more money into the middle. I don't think that's contentious right?

Now you're just saying there's a lot of uncertainty in poker. Yeah ok, I don't think anyone is arguing that either. And you know what they say about assumptions.

In this case, we are a definite favorite against MP's range, so we should be getting more money in the middle. And the best way to do that is to raise.

I don’t think this is ever going to happen. Maybe I’m wrong. But, I think if you raised the flop, OMC/sb jams all-in, MP re-shoves – you might fold bottom set. Which is why you didn’t raise the flop and were able to raise the turn with more comfort. Maybe you don’t fold flop, but you didn’t raise because you didn’t want to have to make that decision with MP being deep. I could be wrong. But you play a low variance style and this hand epitomizes it – for good or bad.

You perhaps lose max value in the long run as the good players posting here suggest. But you also lose less and that often is just as good for your win rate. (e.g. GG).

That combined with you play easiest game in the country, Lol, allows you to crush the game you play. You get MP calling the turn without odds and then must make a crying call on the river because the pot is huge.

You now know (on the turn) MP doesn’t have a set the way he played the hand and are never getting called by an all-in on the turn much less the river. You got max value from him.

I’m not criticizing your play at all. But, I think the takeaway here is there’s not much point in asking for math advice when the premise is always going to be within the context of low variance play.

Hmmm...interesting take, but that's not why I didnt raise the flop and there was no way I was folding. I was certain he had some kind of big draw or combo draw.

PS...Im in L.A. right now and, my God, the games are soft compared to my room in S. Florida. The 5/5 games are a cess pool of incompetence. The avg pot size is much bigger than what I'm used to and you dont need to cooler someone to win a big pot.

I have the worst timing when it comes to visiting card rooms.
Placed Commerce once while visiting, for like 3 hours - all the time I had. Just wanted to see it. Got in the nittiest 2/5. Went to JAX once to check it out. Room was dead because everyone was at some tournament or something. Same with PBKC one time. Prolly only time it’s ever been dead was weekend I played a few years ago - HR maybe had a tourney going they were all at. I think.

Your style is a lot like correct play (I think) in PLO. Lotta pot control on flop. Get things rocking on the turn.

I played 4 different 5/5 tables at Commerce and there may have been 1 nit per table even at 10am. Im used to 5-6 per table. You must be jinxed.

I can't even imagine your winrate in those games. Maybe 150/hr?

GL Mike

Doesn't work like that.

The more +EV line is to get the money in the middle as late in the hand as possible when villain has less equity. Its just not as easy to get it all in when deepish if you wait til later streets.

Yeah, you obviously cant have it both ways unless V is a drooling monkey. Not sure what the argument even is at this point