Even though I initially said x/r, on this texture, just call the $50.

I may be leading some turns.

I like our check/evaluate and now would make a nitty fold. Dude doesn't seem like a moran, raised UTG, has seen the flop go eleventeen ways, and yet decides this flop is still good enough for a cbet OOP into the world.

We'll fold the best hand here some of the time. I'm not going to lose too much sleep over it.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Flatting this pre is fine. AQ is strong enough to play OOP.

If stacks are deep i'm always flatting if stacks are shallow im always 3betting.

Its a very similar spot to opening AQ UTG.


This is a dream flop. You can get 3 streets from QK-Q9 here most of the time. I'm leading for half pot. And continue half potting on good runnouts all the way to the river. If I get raised at any point by I can simply fold, no one should be getting OOL in a 6 way pot on a dry board.


IF you play this passively you are a criminal. The amount of times you run into a better hand will not make up for missing 3 streets of value from worse queens which are going to be infinitely more common then a better hand showing up here.

GG

Could you post the pot odds and the implied odds V offered?

Could you post the range you put V on, and Hero's equity vs. that range?

Yeah, V offered good IO (that's one of the reasons I just flatted preflop). But we also have to consider RIO, especially with this hand, especially if we're thinking of going very far with just one pear.

I'm making an (admittedly) very nitty fold to the flop cbet. But I'm making that fold because this dude doesn't seem like a moran, he raised UTG, saw eleventeen people make the call, and then decided that betting a decent 2/3 PSB was in order on this flop. So, yeah, I'm putting him on a really tight range at this point. We beat like KQ and that's about it (and I'm not even sure non-morans are comfortable cbetting that weak ass hand for this much on this board against this many opponents).

Seems to me a lot of call and evaluate plans are just hoping against hope that this guy doesn't put in another bet in position over the next two streets. I'm not so sure that's going to happen all that often given his preflop/flop action, so if we're going to bail to another bet (which I think we should), then we might want to just exit now.

FWIW, I don't *despise* a call here. I just don't think it's all that great either. Are we calling with QJs/QTs here too that we speculatively played preflop (and very little difference in how those hands are doing compared to AQ at this point)? If so, it quickly reduces the profitability of playing hands for speculative purposes.

Gimo,butobviouslyoutvoted,soasyouwereG

Can you post the maths?

Nope, I can't.

Ggotmethere?G

So you admit you are just trolling deep stack threads, yes?

<--- If you think I'm trolling, then there's a report button right over there.

GcluelesstrollingnoobG

What do you think you're doing in deep stack threads?

Arguably, you are unwilling to use math to back-up tactics and strategies.

Prove me wrong. What is the pot odds that V offers H in this hand.

Lapi, I must be missing your point.

First off, the SPR is < 8 postflop. We're not exactly deep; a bet on the turn will bring up commitment issues.

Second of all, I'm not sure at what point you're asking what pot odds / IO we're getting. Are you stating preflop? Or postflop? Assuming postflop (as it seems the biggest disagreement is me folding the flop), yeah, we're getting ok pot odds at this point facing a 2/3 PSB. But who cares? If that bet ended the hand, whatever, snap call and all's fine. But it's not going to end the hand, there's still two more streets to play with us OOP. If we're behind, our IO on both a Q and A both suck (unless, what, he's cbetting eleventeen ways with AK and improves to TP on the turn?). And otherwise we just leave it up to him to how many bets go in on the next streets (and are basically just praying he checks it down or perhaps pays off a small river bet with worse?).

I won't argue to the death regarding folding vs calling the flop. But saying I'm trolling is pretty lol.

GcluelesstrollingnoobG

On the flop, we have TPTK on a dry board.

What is the pot odds being offered by V? What is the implied odds being offered by V? What is V's range you are assuming here, OTF, as played?

Unless you are actually trolling, you should be able to answer these questions.

It appears to be that you are trolling by suggesting we should fold OTF, when you are unwilling to provide any mathematical basis for doing so.

We're going in circles Lapi, but I'll give it one last shot.

On the flop we're facing a bet of $50 into $79 and closing the action. We're being offered pot odds of about 2.5:1 so we only have to be good about 29% of the time.

I'm assuming a pretty tight range at this point from an UTG raiser who has decided to continue into the world. AA/KK/QQ/AQ/KQ. I'll let you decide if that's too lol nitty. 10 of those combos ahead are ahead, 8 of those are behind, plus 6 combos chopping (if I've counted right). If this was the last of the money we needed to put in, it's a trivial call; but it ain't the last money we're putting in as there are still stacks behind and we're OOP.

How are our IO vs RIO looking? We making much against KK/KQ when a 3outer A comes? Compare that to our RIO against the 1outer A against AA or the 3outer A against QQ. We making much against AA/KK when a 2outer Q comes pairing the TP on the flop? And who's going to win more in the chopping case when we both have the same hand and yet he has the position? Or are we just going to blindly call down to chop (and how are we doing against AA/KK/QQ in that case)? Heck, even OOP to KQ (which we are *destroying*) is a gross spot if he bets the turn (you just hurp durping down?).

In summary, we're getting good immediate odds even against a tight range, but our IO and RIO all suck, all with two more streets to play OOP with him having all the advantage.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I presume you just made a mistake... its not $50 into $79, its actually $50 into $90. So its $140:50 = 2.8:1, meaning Hero needs only 26% equity to continue and see the turn.


Board: Qc 8d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.443% 34.84% 12.61% 8277 2995.50 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 52.557% 39.95% 12.61% 9492 2995.50 { QQ+, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo }

Given your range, we have 47.4% equity.

If we merely include AK for V's range...

Board: Qc 8d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.063% 51.66% 08.40% 18411 2995.50 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 39.937% 31.53% 08.40% 11238 2995.50 { QQ+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

... we have 60% equity.

If its a trivial call now, and we can x/f OTT... so explain to me again how you're not actually trolling here?

My bad on the $90 vs $79, but doesn't make that much of a difference to my argument.

We can't just check/fold on the turn and print monies by calling the flop because there are still stacks behind and streets to play. The hand isn't over.

The most easiest way to explain my way of thinking is with this analogy:

Let's say you're in EP and you have AA and raise to $15, and the very best player in the world calls on the Button, and then there's a shortstack all-in that doesn't re-open the betting, and you're playing 1/3 NL and you have $1million stacks. You are *clearly* "ahead" at this point (in the sense that if the hand ended now, even with the best player in the world overcalling on the Button, you'd be obviously +EV). But you should still *fold*. Just cuz you're "ahead" now doesn't entitle you to overall +EV with a call with money/streets still to play.

ETA: I mean, using our super tight range on villain, go ahead and compute our overall EV if he continues betting on the turn with 100% of this super tight range (including AQ and KQ, which he easily could) and we're planning to fold (which we should, imo). I'll save you the trouble of doing the math: the flop call has an EV of -$50 in this case.

Gthat'saboutasgoodasI'mgoingtobeabletodoG

GG,

1) V in this hand is not "the very best player in the world". Your toy example is not helping your argument, and it is apparently more trolling.

2) You don't know if V is going to continue to bet the turn and river. V cannot see your hand. He doesn't know if you flopped a set and are about to x/r him OTT or OTR. IOW, poker is a game of incomplete information. V may decide to check it down and we have already determined it is profitable to call one bet.

3) V can continue to bet, and H can continue to call if the price remains correct.

Let me be clear. You are advocating folding 47.4% equity when by your own range estimate, hero need only 26% equity to continue.

It would be mathematically correct to call V down, unimproved, if he were to bet $75 OTT and $160 OTR, continuing to give Hero 2.8:1 at each street, if we do not further narrow V down to an even tighter range. Given your already tight range, there's no reason to continue to tighten V's range if he continues to bet.

4) You are not including any bluffs in your estimate for V, you are claiming that he has only value hands in his range. V in this hand has not been described as "tight" or "rock", so we have to assume he has some non-value hands in his range, even at reduced frequencies.

I probably shouldn't have included the analogy (especially given my ETA regarding our exact situation) because it may have confused things, but the point wasn't that we're up against the best player in the world. The point is that there are times where we can be forced to fold even if the range/equity we've computed to this point has a hand-ending call as being profitable now (due to future streets obliterating that profitability). Iirc there's also a book out there that mentions this concept (perhaps T&P?), although I wouldn't quote me on that.

And you're right, I haven't included bluffs in his range. But there's a bunch of unknowns. We have no idea how much he's going to bet with what parts of his range, and he may even check the turn (with anything from the nuts to air) to setup river decisions on all sorts of different runouts, all of us OOP to boot. You're free to think you print money here just cuz a hand ending call at this point is EV against his range given our current pot odds, but I disagree, and I've explained my reasons for thinking so.

FWIW, I'm finding your "trolling" suggestions annoying. If you think I'm trolling, then report it to a mod.

Gprettymuchdonewiththisconversation,tbhG

Fascinating argument.

In my room in S Florida, people draw when they shouldn't, love to gamble and generally a tptk hand on a dry board is much "stronger" then in the rooms I played in (in AC).

I would probably make it $125 to go and call if he moved in.





Sent from my SM-N960U using 2+2 Forums

The main issue after the flop (we’ve beaten the preflop issues to death lol) is that we have to continue out of position against an uncapped Villain. Lapidator is correct in all the particulars of the odds.

But I’m concerned about our ability to realize our equity in this scenario.

I’ve toyed with Lapi’s idea of x r here. It invites this guy to level himself. Of course if he flats our check raise, then what? Same poop on the turn and river perhaps.

Unless we’re prepared to station off on most run outs , it’s not ridiculous to x r here and try to induce an error. Maybe he will fold some AK and chops.

FWIW, just quickly brushed up on NLHET+P last night. A couple of spots address this issue (although I'm guessing many other books do as well, I'm just citing one example), namely "The Hammer of Future Bets" and especially "Concept#32". Lapi will find "Concept#32" interesting, because it's an example where they feel they likely have the best hand 50%+ of the time and yet also feel they should fold to a bet even though the pot is easily laying them the correct odds at the moment to call.

And to be clear, I don't think calling the flop to evaluate is horrible (NLHET+P also cites examples where calling to evaluate what happens on future streets is fine). It's just that we should be mixing in some spots to fold at this point some of the time, and this is a fairly good spot to do that. For mixing in spots to call, I would lean to cases such as the flop checking thru to an LP better taking a shot at things. But NLHET+P would definitely disagree with just cuz we're getting the right pot odds at the moment to make a call means we automatically deposit money into our bank account by calling (at least with stacks behind, with a RIO hand as opposed to drawing hand, and especially OOP), and I agree with them on that.

GbutSklansky/Millerwereprobablytrolling,sowhateverG

AP Hero calls.

The turn is
Q83A
Pot is $190

Your action?

How about mixing in the spot to fold when the pot odds offered isn't 2.8:1, but rather 1.5:1, when we have just +7.4% equity instead of +21.4% equity?

This is why I'm certain that a contributor to this forum, with thousands of hours of live poker history, and giraffes too, must be actually trolling here.

You are advocating folding a 21.4% equity advantage to the pot odds offered.

FFS... its not a close spot. Not close at all. You think being accused of trolling is annoying... consider how annoying it is to read advocating folding a 21.4% equity advantage by someone who should know better. smh.

Check.

Obviously, we're not folding anymore.

Check is good. Hope he bets. Obviously calling any bet. If he checks back, bet river unless it's a K.

(Please put the entire hand in each hand post so we don't have to look back.)