If you bet small, say $125, if called, you'd likely have to bet much larger on the river rather than give up.
This is exactly what I did. I bet $125. My thoughts were this guys likely double checks were AK or something like quad Q's and I'm drawing dead anyways, might as well find out now. It didn't work though. I bet $125, and he thought shortly then called.
You want to target AA, KK, AQ, KQ hands and bet an amount those hands will call. I like something like $250-300. If shoved on, without running the combos, he could have AK too and various boats/quads (or be semi bluffing with one Q). I'd have a plan re whether to call a shove (and lean toward a call). All that said, quad Qs wouldn't surprise me at all in this spot. V was giving you a chance to catch up and you did.
I actually like a check/call here. It seems weak, but if he raises us, I don't like it at all -- and it would really stink to lay down a chop. I also think the only thing that calls that doesn't beat us is a chop. Maybe AA/KK calls, but that's about it.
I can get behind a ~$250 bet, but I really don't want to get raised.
You want to target AA, KK, AQ, KQ hands and bet an amount those hands will call. I like something like $250-300. If shoved on, without running the combos, he could have AK too and various boats/quads (or be semi bluffing with one Q). I'd have a plan re whether to call a shove (and lean toward a call). All that said, quad Qs wouldn't surprise me at all in this spot. V was giving you a chance to catch up and you did.
The trouble is every one of those hands you mention would almost certainly have bet flop or turn. I feel he is heavily weighted to straight or better or complete bust. In other words I don't think we get any value out of a bet.
More likely KK+ bet the turn, if not the flop. Nutty hands like AQs/TT might X/R small on the turn. By the river, left with hands like AK/QQ/JJ, so at best chopping.
Bombing the river to get V off a chop is a consideration, though I'd wimp out and X back. As others have said and I agree, this is a 1-street value hand anyway.
Not to derail the river discussion, but do folks think that there are ever scenarios at LLSNL to press our nut range advantage in 4-bet pots deep IP?
To me, I thought this might be a good situation for immediately starting to ramp up the pressure from the get-go once checked to on the flop (ie consider going 30% pot, 50% pot, shove on most runouts). Just so few nut combos (AcQc/QQ) left for villain in a 4 bet pot compared to ours. Realizing that perhaps the population at 1/2 simply doesn't fold enough AA to justify it....
Why is everyone checking this river? Shouldn’t we just b/fold? Seems extremely unlikely that we’ll get raised by worse given the configuration and context of the hand. I like $205-235
I actually like a check/call here. It seems weak, but if he raises us, I don't like it at all -- and it would really stink to lay down a chop. I also think the only thing that calls that doesn't beat us is a chop. Maybe AA/KK calls, but that's about it.
I can get behind a ~$250 bet, but I really don't want to get raised.
AQ, KQ as well. Sure, he should be betting flop/turn but we can’t assume villain plays those hands the same way we do
Never checking this river. Yes, he might have the nuts—but he has *way* more combos of hands that will make a call than raise us.
Checking river and not getting value from AQ/AA/KK because we're afraid of 1 combo of quads is criminal IMO. And honestly quads are the only hand I see beating us at any real frequency: I highly doubt described player 4-bets QJ/JJ/TT UTG vs. UTG+1.
If he raises us, it sucks but I'm also not snap folding. His value range is just too narrow.
I think it's entirely possible he sees this flop and decides to x/c his AA/KK. Way more of those than QQ.
For us to have value on this river one of the following must be true:
- He checked AA/KK as an overpair on all streets in a 4 bet pot.
- He 4 bets AQ or KQ OOP $1200 effective and checks down trup Queens.
- He’s actually a maniac or misclicked preflop and will call with less than top pair after putting in $0 post flop after 4 betting.
Nothing seems likely. The other side of the coin is that for us to be beat means that he flopped a boat or quads and checked 3 streets. Except for specifically JJ. That is a hand I’m wary of. JJ or possibly FPS with quads swings this to a check IMO. Very interesting river in any case.
Thanks everyone. I bet $300, and V didnt take long to fold black aces face up. I was surprised how he played them, and realized my turn bet was hopeless.
I think this is a quintessential live poker spot, where 2 players have super tight ranges. Looking at both of your lines, it’s super hard for either of you to have anything but QQ(maybe)+ and AK. Think about it, solid player opened utg in a straddled pot. Anyone with a clue has a pretty narrow range here. Next he gets 3 bet by utg +1, which looks super strong in its own right. Does anyone really think the OR is going to 4! JJ or even QQ facing a 3! this deep? Pretty unlikely imo, as it’s turning both hands into a bluff with pretty bad removal. I can maybe see AQ 4 betting pre as a bluff, but most live villains wont do that.
All that takes us to this river decision. Against the Likely range of KK+ and AK sure we are doing pretty well, but can we ever get called by worse? Clearly villain quickly folding the only hand we beat that can consider calling basically tells us that we cannot get called by worse.
Btw, those few advocating x/calling on river, Hero was IP.
Edit: But that was confusing because I don't recall OP having posting V's initial river action. Did I miss V's check?
Q
T
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