Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
We have a little over 1000 left. If he's drawing, he's never putting more money in the pot unless he hits OTR. I like 475.
500 is a mental barrier. So that's why I chose 475. It also leaves a lol ~1/4 psb OTR that we have the odds to get in regardless of river
Edit:
Or we could just shove. It's a little over psb, because he's a fish, he may just call. Granted, I'm not sure if a fish is gonna auto call a bet for a grand
If you think a significant portion of his range is flush draws (NFD is in play here obv) in not sure that plan to bet 475 and call any river is very good.
Of course his range is wider than just draws but consider his NFDs, they have 21%. If we bet 475 leaving 500 behind (lost track of exact stack but it's close). Pot will be 805 + 475 to villain with a 500 I/o free roll on the balance of our stack.
So 805+475+500/475 = laying 3.75:1 or villain needs 21%. So at least NFDs would be correctly calling.
If his range is NFDs and AK his equity is more like 12% so maybe it's ok....meh. But the presence of the all in player actually might make villain more likely to look hero's larger bet up here if he feels better about the side pot given our fos image.
I would have went slightly larger otf making a shove here more like a psb.
AP prob just shove mostly per gg's assessment. Slightly drier boards id be cool with just sticking with smaller bets for turn and river.
I sort of feel like we haven't played the hand to properly capitalize on our image in terms of sizing at this point.
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Last edited by cAmmAndo; 08-18-2016 at 08:27 AM.